In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:13) What is the Sahm Rule?

(06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered

(08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule

(10:20) Are We in a Recession?

(14:05) Mantra Ad

(15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule

(18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession

(21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0

(22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule

(24:35) July Unemployment Report

(32:10) Permissionless Ad

(32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market

(38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?

(40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.