Saxo Market Call

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Saxo Market Call episodes

April 08 A robust market reaction to a quite fragile "cease-fire" in Iran.
Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
23 min
April 01 Markets melt up on Trump's seeming urgency to end war, but ...
Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
22 min
March 27 Market keeps finding new pressure points besides the worst ones.
Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links:
Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script.
Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
18 min
March 25 Market celebrating Trump's seeming desperation to pull US out of Iran war.
Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusions until more clarity emerges. Elsewhere, software-as-a-service names were under new pressure once again. We also talk macro & FX and even provide a little wrap on the Danish general election from Thursday. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
20 min
March 24 Trump rolls a social media grenade onto the trading floor.
Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves in US treasuries, a critical market for risk sentiment, as well as reactions and the state of play in major currencies. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Regarding today's discussion on OpenAI and Elon Musk's comment that "OpenAI is goint to eat Microsoft alive", a long-form X post on risks to the relationship.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
25 min
March 23 Markets are moving beyond denial stage as yields explode higher.
Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
23 min
March 20 Triple witching into weekend uncertainty
Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
As discussed on today's pod, here's a link to some of the key countdown clocks linked to supply shortfalls of key products that are not currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
22 min
March 19 Risk off as war in Iran escalates. Also: possible drivers of weaker gold here.
The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here.
Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download.
Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out.
Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
28 min
March 18 Next 24 hours are about seven central banks and memory lane, or at least Micron lane.
Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
26 min
March 17 Iran War maintains the boil. Market shrugs off Jensen Huang's latest hype.
Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign, while high-flying memory maker Micron is set to report tomorrow after the close. Macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself.
On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
25 min

About Saxo Market Call

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For the aspirational trader and financial markets professional. Coming at you most trading days, the Saxo Market Call is the high frequency podcast for real-time analysis of the financial markets…