Saxo Market Call

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Today we discuss the possibility of stagflation in the years to come as our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen laid out the arguments for why such a scenario could play out. In daily grind of financial markets we discuss tomorrow's US July CPI report which is expecting to see another month of core CPI at 0.2% m/m. If US inflation continues to ease it could mark the peak in the Fed Funds Rate and accelerate bets on rate cuts next year. We also discuss the troubles at WeWork, oil markets, Novo Nordisk's 17% rally yesterday on good Wegocy trial data on heart risk, and the clarification from the Italian government on the new extra bank tax. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hnrHW   -

Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glencore's whopping 50% decline in EBITDA, and Palantir's positive revenue outlook last night. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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In this Special Edition podcast, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes us on a deep dive into the energy markets, with a rundown of supply and demand drivers, how balanced the market is these days, what the forward curve for oil tells us about the market, why refined products are as important to follow as crude oil itself, ways to trade the energy markets and much more. John J. Hardy hosts.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1   -

Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44C0Yrk   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the break higher in commodities that will likely eventually challenge the assumption of ongoing disinflation. We also ponder what today's FOMC meeting will bring relative to market expectations, and more importantly what the Fed is trying to accomplish as this cycle plays out into an eventual recession. We also look at the woes Europe faces here and the impossible task for the ECB. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rDYt9n   -

Today we look at incoming data and how it will impact the yield curve, suspecting that weak data and the key Friday US PCE inflation release will see the market marking the forward Fed expectations lower, seeing this week's Fed rate hike as the last for the cycle, even if tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed maintaining optionality for the possibility of another hike. The ECB is certainly set for a more dovish turn, and we eye EURJPY downside risks in coming months. In earnings, we note the incoming semi-annual report from LVMH today and Google and Microsoft after the US close. This and more on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DtRVwN   -

Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. This and more on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44WWADd   -

Today we look at the ugly break lower in the US equity market after the Tesla and Netflix earnings spoiled the party, with a snappy move higher in treasury yields possibly adding to the negative tilt in sentiment.  We look at the technical implications of yesterday's break in the rally and note that the status of the US dollar bear market is suddenly in play as well after yesterday's punchy rally and the spike in yields. All of this with a critical week ahead as the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan lined up for next week. Today's pod features Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44VbCcD   -

US equities tested new highs yesterday but closed mixed, with Tesla and especially Netflix earnings after the close chilling risk sentiment, with focus on Netflix's weak guidance and concerns for Tesla centered on the margin story as Musk forecast further price cuts on Tesla's cars, with fewer details than hoped on the Cybertruck. Elsewhere, we have a look at the strong euro versus weak JPY and CNH and wonder whether the ECB's recent dovish turn is prompted from the currency angle. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44NGKKU   -

US equities ripped to new highs for the cycle as financials got a boost from more banks and financial services companies reporting, led by a huge advance in Charles Schwab on a strong earnings beat and guidance. But Microsoft stole the limelight, adding $150 billion in market cap in announcing the pricing for its new AI tools. Elsewhere, sterling was walloped by a softer than expected CPI report - does this spell the end of sterling's strong performance after a remarkable first half of the year? Today's pod features a run-through of the technical analysis outlook for key stocks, indices and gold with our technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson. Hosted by John J. Hardy.  

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic