Saxo Market Call

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XYOzeo   -

US equities closed at new cycle highs yesterday as financials recovered sharply after the prior day's sell-off. The first two major US regional banks are set to report earnings today. Elsewhere, commodities prices suffered a drawdown as China-linked sentiment remains soft. In the earnings overview, we wonder whether Tesla's earnings report could inject some volatility into the very complacent backdrop, as the calm ironically increases market fragility and risk to any news that doesn't fit with the narrative. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pZ7bhT    -

The equity market was unable to hold an extension of the steep rally on Friday, with financials leading the intrasession selling. Strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw those shares gapping strongly higher on the open, but generally selling off thereafter. In FX, the USD backed up after a strong US University of Michigan sentiment report for July that boosted yields, but last week on balance saw a firm break lower in the USD's fortunes. In commodities, we focus on crude oil and the divergent and volatile grains markets. We also look at the week ahead in earning and macro risks and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj   -

The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hyW13   -

Equities got the best of all worlds yesterday with US June inflation figures surprising to the downside painting a perfect picture of lower inflation, higher real disposable income, and no landing in the global economy (maybe even an acceleration?) leading to a US yield curve steepening with long bond yields declining. With animal spirits already running high this new setup took US equities to new highs for the cycle and the highest close in 15 months. We also cover the moves across other asset classes as the USD fell sharply and gold and silver rallied hard. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PR5uO8   -

Equity sentiment continued to strengthen in Europe and US today, with Japan's equities under pressure from the recent sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. A big test for USDJPY  and the US dollar in general over today's June US CPI data as the dollar index trades near the big range lows of this year. In equities, we break down why the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing should prove much ado about not-so-much in the near term and note that most of the upside in equities over the last quarter has been on multiple expansion more than anticipation of earnings growth. In fixed income, we note the extreme outperformance of junk debt this year and wonder when elevated US yields will begin to attract more assets into cash and short treasuries from equities. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XJQVho   -

Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43k7th9   -

Today we discuss the weak close to the week for equities on Friday after the official US jobs data came in far softer than the blowout ADP private payrolls numbers the prior day. Interestingly, while long US treasury yields remained elevated, the JPY strengthened the most of any major currency versus the US dollar - is this on overextended positioning? Elsewhere, we look at TSMC's better than feared preliminary results of the last quarter, look ahead to the start of earnings season later this week, talk metals in the commodities round up and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/439Lyco   -

Today we discuss the strong US data yesterday, including a blowout June ADP payrolls growth number and strong June ISM Services survey print. The data blasted yields higher once again at the long end of the US yield curve, a move that markets found unsettling as it represents a tightening of financial conditions. We also discuss the very odd internals of yesterday's US equity market session and whether all corners of the market are "getting" the risk of a narrative reset: that the US economy may be reheating. In FX, we look at why the JPY strengthened, so unusual to see when US treasury yields are surging. In commodities, we discuss the conflicting forces hamstringing the market in a range and the crosswinds hitting gold as well. This and much more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble

Link to this episode's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rcubu5   -

Today we note yesterday's break of key chart resistance in US 10-year yields and ponder the implications while noting it is critical to watch whether the break holds through the next couple of days of incoming US macro data, especially the jobs report tomorrow. We also take an extensive look at UK gilts and whether UK yields there will compete with returns on equities, as well as how much work the BoE has to do (or core inflation has to fall) to get real yields anywhere close to neutral. A look at the JPY move overnight (in conflict with developments in US treasury yields), the upcoming US economic data calendar and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PDCutb   -

Today we look at a market that is waiting for incoming data, with the long end of the US yield curve in focus as we watch whether we get stronger data and a yield surge that may tighten financial conditions, or whether soft data plays as "bad news is bad news" rather than continuing to encourage the seemingly ever easier financial conditions of late. We also note fresh "fragmentation game" angles on signals out of China and the US looking to possibly at the loophole in its restrictions on Chinese access to AI, we discuss the incoming earnings season, important perspectives for bond investors as significantly positive coupons have dramatically shifted the risk/reward in bond investing and much more Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic