Saxo Market Call

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Today we look at the FOMC waxing about as hawkish as one could expect with higher inflation and rate projections for next year, especially relative to market expectations. And yet, despite some churning, US yields and the US dollar reacted very modestly to the meeting. Still, this morning has seen some sudden USD strength and weak risk sentiment - could this be due to forward liquidity concerns rather than anything the Fed delivered yesterday? Thoughts on precious metals, crude oil, today's heavy central bank calendar and more also today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WeCzUi   -

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Today we look at yesterday's reaction to the softer than expected US November CPI data, with equity market upside fading quickly even as the reaction in US yields and the US dollar was stickier. We also discuss today's upcoming FOMC meeting, with the Fed facing a tough task if it wants to push back against easing market conditions and Fed policy expectations today. We also look at Tesla posting new cycle lows and concerns for the stock and EV market, Apple, Inditex, crude oil, precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hm7gYN   -

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Today, we highlight the absurd levels of volatility around recent US CPI releases ahead of today's US November CPI data point, noting signs that market speculators and hedgers are revving up for another blast of volatility in the wake of today's release. At the same time, we suggest that the reaction function may be difficult as the FOMC meeting follows hot on the heels of this release the following day. Elsewhere, we look at precious metals and copper levels, whether regulators will (or should) approve mergers like the Novozymes-Christian Hansen attempt, earnings to watch for the rest of the week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HnKoTo   -

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Today, we look at what will likely prove a volatile week ahead for financial markets as the monthly US CPI release due tomorrow has sparked tremendous volatility and is up tomorrow, with an FOMC meeting and fresh set of Fed dot plot policy forecasts to follow on Wednesday. Elsewhere, we focus on the odd combination of power prices spiking in Europe even as gas prices ease, discuss low open interest in the commodities market, look at the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Pdd9E4

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Today, we look at recent commodity market performance, where hopes for a reopening of Chinese activity is weighed against concerns for the forward outlook elsewhere. We also highlight the market's conviction that the Fed will be cutting rates in the second half of next year and wonder how the market will treat a less accommodative dot plot from the Fed at next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. A look at recent earnings reports, soybeans ahead of today's important WASDE report and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Y3gQAi   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Today, we look at the overall sense that market players don't want to take any strong new bets until we get to the other side of Dec 31. We also look US treasury yields dropping through pivotal levels at the longer end of the curve and the remarkable fact that the curve remains near its most inverted even as the 2-year yield is at local range lows. The market is increasingly convinced that Fed easing is set to start within 12 months after a bit more hiking next week and early next year. We also look at crude oil dynamics, natural gas in Europe, Swedish housing prices, weak outlook from US banks, the latest woes for Tesla, the Bank of Canada keeping CAD the weakest of G10 currencies, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VBFGpt   -

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Today we note the US market continuing lower and closing near pivotal level, this time with no notable catalyst driving the selling, as US treasury yields actually dropped at the long end of the US yield curve, taking the yield curve inversion to a new cycle- and multi-decade extreme. It also looks like the easing of China's Covid policy is running out of steam as a factor. In commodities, we look at crude oil plunging to new lows despite alarming supply fundamentals, and wheat prices also on the defensive on unusually elevate export activity for the season. A look at today's Bank of Canada meeting, TSMC making even larger investments in the US, Apple postponing its EV plans and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P6Apn2   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Today we are announcing our newly released 2023 Outrageous Predictions highlighting improbable, but not impossible, events that could really shake the markets. We discuss the reversal in S&P 500 futures to the big 4,000 level driven by a surprise beat on ISM Services Index yesterday suggesting that the US economy is reaccelerating again. The US yield move higher yesterday is also setting the stage for our attention on USDJPY in today's FX focus. On commodities our focus today is on the oil market given the demand uncertainties over China's reopening and supply worries over the Russian oil price cap. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UvXqRy   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Today we note that the market seems to be in see-no-evil, hear-no-evil mode, as hot earnings data from the US on Friday was unable to sustain a reaction in treasury yields, with financial conditions at their easiest in months. Still, key economic indicators point to an incoming recession in Europe even as the EURUSD manages to pull above 1.0500. We also preview tonight's RBA meeting, interesting earnings reports this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XULGef   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Today we look at a slight divergence in reaction patterns across markets after a weaker than expected core PCE inflation reading and ISM Manufacturing survey in the US pushed treasury yields and the US dollar lower, but failed to support further equity market upside. Elsewhere, we round up interesting earnings reports from yesterday, discuss silver technicals and the crude oil and natural gas outlook, today's November US jobs report and more.  Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic