Saxo Market Call

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The FOMC delivered a hawkish message to the market sending equities and bonds lower. Russia also announced a partial mobilization of its reservists increasing the stake in its war in Ukraine impacting commodities. We go through the details of yesterday's FOMC decision and details, and what knock-on effects they have caused throughout the various markets. We also discuss BOJ's decision to stay firm on its rate policy putting more pressure on JPY. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

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Today we look at markets trading nervously ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, as we wonder how the Fed can maintain a hawkish tone relative even to the recent sharp rise in expectations. The new "dot plot" forecasts for the Fed funds rate by the end of this year will be key on that front on top of whether the Fed hikes 100 basis points or the more likely 75 basis points today. We also look at the immediate impact on sentiment in Europe and on wheat as Russia has announced a partial mobilization this morning . Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QX06Gd   -

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Today we look at the market putting on a show of resilience ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, as we break down where to look for the Fed delivering a hawkish surprise (assuming they will be at pains to avoid a dovish one). The Riksbank hiked 100 basis points during the podcast recording. Elsewhere, we look at US housing as one of the better leading indicators for the equity market, the latest on crude oil, natural gas, and softs, and interesting FX stories aside from the obsessive focus on the USD. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dmttnu     -

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Today we look at the weak equity market as traders nervously await a raft of central bank meetings this week as most are set to tighten rates further. In FX, we note the interesting reduction in euro shorts in the US currency futures positioning as the euro remains resilient, with most of the USD long position there expressed in GBPUSD and USDJPY. In commodities, we focus on longer term support for copper, while the equities focus this week is on names like Sea Limited, US homebuilders with the backdrop of US housing data, and Amazon. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on Commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qGito3   -

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Markets tried to continue treading water yesterday after the trauma on Tuesday, but risk sentiment tilted sharply lower from late yesterday after FedEx reported an ugly profit miss and pulled its forward guidance, citing a weakening economy. We also look at the latest surge in US yields and the US dollar, the Adobe acquisition pummeling its share price, the blast lower in gold, natural gas & much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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A special edition podcast today, as the Saxo Market Call team takes a step back from daily market developments to wish Saxo a very happy 30th birthday and to reflect on market developments of the last three decades and what coming years may bring to financial markets, from de-globalization, what drives the next gold rally, and some hopeful thoughts on Europe's way out of its current crisis. One thing is for sure, the last thirty years have shown us that the cycles are always changing. This special edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen on and John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BioWdI   -

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Today we discuss the August US CPI shocker yesterday, as the core inflation reading on the month rose at twice the expected pace, taking even headline inflation into positive territory month-on-month despite the huge drop in energy prices. The market tanked and the USD soared as investors are forced to consider whether the FOMC meeting next week will bring a 100 basis point hike. Crude oil, metals, stocks to watch and a preview of Adobe and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DsNX8C   -

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Today we discuss the extension of momentum in equities as the market is clearly positioning itself for a weaker than expected US August inflation figure later today. The risk-on sentiment is seen across many markets including the USD which continues to weaken against the EUR which might have got some tailwinds lately from the war success in Ukraine. We also talk about Silver, but more importantly the ongoing European energy crisis that has eased a bit lately with lower energy prices across the board. Finally, we go through stocks to watch with a focus on Ocado's horrible revenue miss and Inditex's earnings tomorrow, ending with a quick rundown of today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3B5MOBj   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we discuss market risk sentiment brightening in Europe in the wake of Ukrainian momentum on the battlefield since late last week, with EURUSD breaking well above important local resistance. The JPY is nearly as weak as the US dollar as yields have poked higher again. We also discuss developments in crude oil, wheat and rice after an Indian export ban, stocks to watch this week, including Oracle on the earnings report today and key semiconductor stocks as the US is likely to widen its curb on exports to China. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bu8ZCo   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we look at a sharp sell-off in the US dollar inspired in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday and especially after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda comments on JPY volatility overnight. The USD decline has helped to boost sentiment further as the US S&P 500 retakes 4,000, but equity traders should keep a wary eye on treasury yields, which bounced back sharply yesterday on a strong US jobless claims number and the latest firm rhetoric from Chair Powell. The week ahead in earnings and macro and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic