Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3euh4hy   -

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Today we ponder whether yesterday's bounce in sentiment after technical support once again survived offers room for at least tactical optimism. Certainly, investor sentiment in the US is in the dumps, nearly matching record low levels according to at least one survey. Elsewhere, we breakdown the impact of EU proposals to cap power prices, particularly on alternative energy equities, the latest on crude oil and Putin boosting wheat prices with threats to revisit Ukraine export deal. In FX, the focus is on the JPY as the officialdom is getting religion on the need to do something soon and on the EUR as the ECB is likely set to hike 75 basis points today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3D0hGFN   -

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Today we look at markets trying to remain steady yesterday after a strong US August ISM Services survey took US treasury yields sharply higher again, but that rise in yields aggravated the decline in the Japanese yen, which accelerated lower overnight and hardly registered stern warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance. We also discuss factors driving gold below $1700/ounce again and the commodities complex weighed down in general by the strong US dollar and economic outlook. Equity market focus on sluggish volatility relative to prior cycles and the ongoing US-China disengagement. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x1d26R  -

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Today we look at fresh 24-year highs in USDJPY and across the board weakness in the Japanese yen as yields bob back higher and the market appears ready to challenge the Bank of Japan's belief that it can remain unmovable on policy. Tremendous volatility awaits if US long yields rise to new cycle highs. Elsewhere, we ponder risk to corporate margins from here, break down the latest on European natural gas and global crude oil prices in the wake of the OPEC+ output quota cut yesterday and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q9Eyes   -

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Today we look at the whiplash reversal in sentiment on Friday after the market was rallying in the wake of the US jobs report, only to see sentiment sent into a tailspin on news that Russia will not resume gas flows through the Nord Stream I pipeline. We also look at sentiment position in US futures markets on commodities and FX and discuss the week ahead in macro events, with the RBA decision and guidance up tonight after a soft inflation data point out of Australia overnight. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.'

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KFFosG   -

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Today we discuss the US market finding support at a very technical level yesterday ahead of today's US August jobs report. US Treasury yields continue to ratchet higher, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, suggesting that resilient data is beginning to register on yields. We also discuss the US government blocking NVidia from exporting some chips, why gasoline prices are plunging while diesel prices remain resilient, the latest on Natural Gas, today's US August jobs report and where to look for surprises there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3R8qkGG   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we discuss the continuing declines in equities as US leading indicators are now fast approaching negative suggesting heightened risk of a recession in 6-9 months from now. Overnight in Asia weak PMI figures from South Korea and China confirmed our recent worries of the economic slowdown materialising broadly. We also discuss Europe's electricity market which seems to have been taken over by speculation and is not working properly. In FX we highlight the recent strength of the EUR and the dismal weakness of the GBP. Higher interest rates are also hurting silver and gold extending the negative momentum. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3RgnLlG   -

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Today we discuss a weak US equity market session yesterday as sentiment bounced more than expected in August, at least according to the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence survey. We also look at a far better expansion in Job openings than expected and an interesting measure of "sticky CPI" that continues to rise in the US. In commodities, we discuss the drop in oil prices, and plans possibly afoot in Europe to cap power prices. The equities focus is on BYD, Chinese lithium names, and MongoDB. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ct6WF6   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we look at the lackluster session yesterday as risk sentiment found relief after the brief wipeout in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday. Helping to ease pressure on sentiment were the USD halting its rise and US yields easing back lower. In commodities, we look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe as Russia is set to shut down a key pipeline for purported maintenance. The corn and wheat outlook, pressure on discretionary spending and related consumer discretionary stocks due to soaring energy prices, upcoming earnings reports and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVsg3N   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was credited with triggering the ugly slide in equities and broader risk sentiment on Friday, but the modest reaction in US treasury yields suggests that the Fed was only moderately more hawkish than anticipated. Regardless, the market slide has already developed ugly momentum and could test next supports if US data this week continues to support higher yields and a stronger US dollar, an important financial condition in its own right. We also discuss the latest commodity price developments and weak precious metals on the stronger US dollar and remarkably persistent view that hefty disinflation is just around the corner. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVmpvg   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we offer our latest musings on Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed conference today and whether Powell is ready to wax as hawkish as some of his colleagues on the Fed, with the bar somewhat high to impress still very easy financial conditions, perhaps. We also look at the latest on natural gas volatility risk, also due to vastly higher weighting in commodities funds, the contribution and importance of earnings as an inflation drive, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic