Saxo Market Call

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Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in China's covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class and risks to HUF, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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This Special Edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of Quant and Equity Strategy who offers his perspective on the status of the current US equity market drawdown and what makes it unlike any other market drawdown, relative to the current economic backdrop, since at least the 1980's and even the early 1970's. That's because we have nearly reached classic bear market status (a -20% drop from the top) even with a US economy that has yet to roll over and a Fed that is still bent on tightening policy further. We also look at why this drawdown is likely to achieve "top"-five status among bear markets of the last century as inflation is likely to continue even on any softening growth, preventing the kind of QE and rate cut response that has driven the levering up and serial asset price bubbles since the mid-late 1990's. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

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This Special Edition podcast features Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo's head of Technical Analysis who takes us through the technical chart outlook for a wide array of assets including the S&P 500, DAX, Brent Crude, US 10-year treasury yields, EURUSD and other FX pairs, with an eye on key support and resistance levels, trend status and a flexible outlook on scenarios that could develop from here.  This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

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Today we look at the normally high-beta bubble sectors continuing to weigh very heavily on the US equity market, even as the S&P 500 managed to pull solidly off the lows yesterday. We continue to highlight the "Bermuda triangle" of Tesla-ArkInvest-Crypto as an ongoing contagion risk. We also look at the market impact of a trio of weak US economic data points, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, FX moves and the status of  the US dollar, upcoming earnings including Nvidia and Snowflake, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at the case of whiplash administered to the US equity market yesterday after a positive session in the US was spoiled after hours by a weak forecast from social media company SNAP, which has contributed to a general mark-down of US futures into the European trading session today. Elsewhere, we look at whether recession risks are over-estimated for the near term as PMI's suggest economic activity remains in expansion even as confidence has cratered. A breakdown of grains, crude oil and natural gas, earnings stories ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at markets tip-toeing back away from the cycle lows, especially after a rate ease in China buoyed sentiment there. We also highlight a huge ongoing shift in portfolio allocations as a major Blackrock momentum fund (MTUM) is set for a massive rebalancing. And we put the current overall market drawdown in historic perspective, warning that investors need to zoom out to consider the 100-year timeframe rather than the merely the post-GFC one. Thoughts on industrial and precious metals, FX and the status of the US dollar rally as well as a preview of next week's earnings- and macro calendar also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we break down the worst session for US equities in over two years after another large US retailer, this time Target, saw its share price gutted after noting inflation driving rising margin pressures. As stocks are back at the precipice of key support, we take a look at next potential downside targets, the remarkable lack of a "normal" VIX forward curve given market stress at present, Tesla's Elon Musk becoming a loose cannon after Tesla kicked off the S&P 500's ESG index, look at JPY wrestling with the USD in FX, CAD concerns, crude oil, industrial metals and grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we break down the strong market session yesterday, with crypto-related names the star performer on a day that Bitcoin is still struggling to find separation from 30k, and with the market higher despite a fresh hawkish broadside from the Fed as Powell claimed the Fed won't hesitate to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral. Key short-term resistance is coming into view in US stocks and is already here in Europe. Elsewhere, we look at a worst in 35-year drop in Walmart on its profit forecast, discuss a misguided forecast on the housing market from Home Depot CEO after that company got a boost from its earnings report, look at evidence the from leading indicators showing that the US housing market is rolling over, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, earnings and macro data up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we note the interesting and remarkable divergences in market internals yesterday despite the nominally uneventful session, one that saw VIX volatility continuing its freefall back into the range. We highlight widening corporate bond spreads as a concern, run through the latest on grain prices and copper, talk Tesla's weak performance, stocks and earnings to watch today, FX themes and gold, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic