Saxo Market Call

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Equity markets surged on Friday in what looks so far like a short squeeze as the market ran dry of fresh sellers, with the most speculative sectors backing up in spectacular fashion after Bitcoin and the Tether "stable coin" survived existential threats late last week. Today we look at fresh concerns on the outlook for global food prices as India has moved to ban wheat exports on weather related developments there, sending wheat limit up in Chicago. We also discuss the latest on Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition intentions, the weak ahead in earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesnt even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front, outside of coffee. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N361bd   -

Today we look at a pause in the equity market slide a day after the worst day for global equities in nearly two years, identify important resistance levels for the S&P 500, talk commodities from copper and gold (where the last gasp support has been tested) to natural gas and crude oil. We also highlight relative strength in the major currencies, the muted EURUSD countertrend price action, and run down the earnings and macro calendar for today. We continue to highlight the systemic risk in the crypto space if Bitcoin punches below 30k. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today we look at the worst single day for global equity markets since 2020 as the major US average broke below key support.  Signs of poor liquidity abound, as the cryptocurrency space was in for a drubbing and one of the stable coins lost its grip on parity with the US dollar. We look at the US treasury yields, commodity developments from metals to energy and agriculture, key stocks to watch, especially Tesla as a bellwether, earnings head and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Today we look at the liquidity pressures keeping risk sentiment in the dumps as long US treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise. US equities are perched at the lows for the cycle once again and we wonder where any sustained relief will come from until the Fed eventually has to exercise its put, but unable to do so given its primary focus on inflation. We also look at forward return potential now that global equities have come down from extremes, commodity positioning and sentiment on China's Covid lockdown impacts, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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Today we look at the vicious swing back to risk aversion as the squeeze after a less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting failed even to hold for 24 hours. We ask whether Tesla is the last holdout for retail bulls and where to look for a technical capitulation there. We also discuss the implications of Chinese leader Xi doubling down on China's "dynamic zero Covid" policy, including on commodities, look at signs of a weak consumer sector in Europe, break down the ugly slide in sterling after an extremely downbeat Bank of England and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LNyWzM   -

Today we look at the first dovish surprise (relative to expectations) from the Powell Fed in many months and the sharp short squeeze it inspired as we wonder if this is a mere kneejerk that will fade within days or if market sentiment could stabilize for a bit longer. Certainly, financial conditions and rising energy prices are tightening the noose on the global economy despite Powell's pussyfooting around. We also take a look at crude oil and natural gas, copper, supply chain concerns in China, BMW's outlook, Shopify and other earnings reports on the radar, FX and the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yd6Tpy   -

Today we look at the market trading on a nervous footing ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting as we all wonder what the meeting will deliver and how the market will react. In particular the size of the hike today and any guidance in the Q&A of the Powell press conference will be pivotal, as will be the reaction for both the long end and the short end of the US Treasury yield curve. We also break down the outlook for  crude oil and copper, preview the Bank of England tomorrow and discuss the many moving parts in equities as companies report and grapple with supply chain, and  in some cases, demand headwinds. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's special edition podcast, recorded May 2, features an interview with Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the current lay of the land across markets, discussing the funk equity investors find themselves in as they await this week's FOMC meeting, how far the Fed is ready to take policy tightening, USD liquidity challenges and therefore challenges for global liquidity, the ongoing impact from the war in Ukraine, the hapless Bank of England and headwinds for the UK economy, deglobalization and limits of the physical world, China and more. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vxzofF   -

Today we look at a very ugly close to markets on Friday, as the rally attempt in the wake of Amazon's  negative shocker late Thursday faltered and markets closed right at the downside tipping point ahead of this week and the much anticipated FOMC meeting up on Wednesday. We also look at why semiconductors have underperformed, signs of limitation in the physical world, including on food, positioning in commodities, the Aussie ahead  of tonight's RBA meeting and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic