Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rjR24k   -

Today's podcast features Saxo CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen as we look at the dangers for equities given the backdrop of de-globalization and pressures from rising rates, discuss what the Fed may have to do if long treasury yields rise much further and what that could mean for the US dollar. We also discuss the outlook for Europe and the euro and much more. This pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38Lgauf   -

Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is a one-man show with John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DYjcqo   -

Today we run down the factors that are pressuring market sentiment, even as the first round of the French Presidential election failed to trigger any immediate further EU existential concerns as the results largely were in line with expectations. Still, the second round is not a done deal for Macron, as we discuss on today's pod in breaking down voter intentions for the second round, Le Pen's strong momentum and her appeal to younger voters and possibly to many undecided voters in the final instance. Today's pod features Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/37yqHIM   -

Today we discuss the French presidential election risk exploding onto the market's radar screens this week and the gap-risk for the euro and other assets over the weekend if the right populist Le Pen posts a strong showing in the first round. Any indication that Le Pen has rising odds of becoming the next French president is a proper Gray Rhino event that would act as a powerful check on the recent EU narrative of tighter EU integration post the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will have European investors holding their collective breath over the next two weeks until the second round vote. We also talk crude oil, natural gas at near-14-year highs in the US, grains, earnings season kicking off next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DRPTpt   -

Today we look at the continued pressure on risk sentiment after the FOMC minutes show the Fed discussing a rapid pace of quantitative tightening that is set to phase in after the May 4 FOMC meeting and, together with US treasury net issuance, will mean an annual run rate of $2-2.5 trillion in liquidity tightening for financial markets. Financial conditions have been responding accordingly, a dangerous development for equity markets if the tightening continues apace. The US dollar has jumped back higher over the last couple of sessions against riskier currencies and the oil market may be responding to that as well as to demand reductions from Chinese lockdowns and an incoming flood of supply from further reserve releases. Copper, Facebook and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LBaW2m   -

Today we look at the US equity market advance getting checked yesterday by a hawkish broadside from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who invoked Paul Volcker in a speech on the unequal impacts of inflation on US households and the need to bring inflation down to the 2% area, as she guided for a May kick-off to quantitative tightening that will procced "considerably more rapidly" than in the 2017-19 tightening. (This on top of the market already pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike). US treasury yields, financial conditions, stock sectors in focus and more are also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DDwhW9   -

Today we look at a frothy US equity market as traders react to Elon Musk's move to acquire a significant portion of Twitter, Cathie Wood and the absurd idea of $12 oil, the irony of easing market conditions when key financial conditions are rapidly tightening and are set to tighten further in the months ahead. We also look at falling container rates, the latest on the crude oil and wheat outlook, what is moving FX, including the Australian dollar, nominal equity market returns versus real returns and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DzlAUx   -

Today we look at equities staging a rebound on the back of Friday's strong economic data in the US and Russian retreat across the entire Northern front line in the war in Ukraine setting the war up for the "battle of Donbass" over the next month. The unfolding food and energy crisis is becoming tough for frontier economies and Sri Lanka is right now the canary in the coal mine with food shortages and a collapsing equity market. We also talk about the risks to Europe's energy markets as Russia continues to demand to be paid in RUB for oil and gas breaching contracts with European importers. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38cTvGN   -

Today we look at the euro brushed back lower on dovish ECB talk and Putin's demands for sanctioning countries to "pay for gas in rubles". Also, while the outlook is dim for EU economic growth, at what point are relative European equity valuations simply too cheap to ignore? Elsewhere, the US tries to impress the oil market with a massive reserve release that may be too massive to physically get to market at the intended pace, we are concerned that not enough wheat will be planted this year. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JYPpA4   - 

Today we look at Fed credibility on the line in coming days with the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE Deflator and Core levels for February is set for release later today and the March payrolls and earnings data is up tomorrow. The backdrop of financial conditions is a mixed bag, with market measures showing easing and a lack of Fed credibility while higher rates point to a significant tightening. Will the Fed respond to market conditions? We also look at EU yields, Russian default risks, US possibly set to release strategic reserves to push oil prices lower ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting and the most important planting report in years from the USDA later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic