Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IDrg1h    -

Today we look at energy markets soaring as "self-sanctioning" is taking hold in much of the oil market as importers and refiners refuse to load Russian oil cargoes, and as other countries are rushing out of Russian exposure. In equities, we maintain a very cautious stance as markets need to be careful in trying to anticipate coming easing measures to address systemic concerns triggered by the destruction of Russian assets in the global banking system. Risks for the euro, where we are focusing in equities, caution on crypto and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35IPhFW   -

Today we look at markets trying to maintain a positive mood despite the terrible realities on the ground in Ukraine, the widening rush by companies to disassociate themselves with Russia, signs of systemic risk cropping up in the banking system, the commodity focus in FX, a warning for the crypto crowd, whether markets are justified in marking the Fed terminal rate lower as Fed Chair Powell set for two days of testimony before Congress tomorrow and Thursday in the wake of tonight's State of the Union address and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M4NyeC   -

After the sanctions on Friday underwhelmed, Western powers drew up a comprehensive list of sanctions at the weekend that look set to largely shut Russian access to the global financial system, though important details are not yet clear. Outside of an enormous drop in the Russian ruble, one that mobilized an enormous 1,150 bp rate hike to 20% by the Russian central bank, fallout across markets is quite muted. Today, we sort through the various market reactions and look at the implications of a historic speech by German Chancellor Scholz at the weekend, one that signals an entirely new stance on defense from Germany. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LYXCWm   -

Today we look at the massive market reversal yesterday as markets rallied hard off new lows, with the improved sentiment inspired at least in part by the US avoiding the most severe options in its new list of sanctions on Russia. Elsewhere, we look at the situation largely failing to impact Fed rhetoric or expectations, the intense focus on commodity markets, with stakes high for the global economy from soaring energy prices. We focus on single stock equity stories and wonder whether LNG stocks may get a boost if Europe seeks to diversify its energy supplies. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sdmWQM   -

Today's podcast looks at where the focus for markets lies in the wake of Russian forces attacking Ukraine overnight, a move Ukraine is calling a full-scale invasion. The next critical step will be the scale of Western sanctions and the degree to which Western powers can get on the same page as any real escalation in sanctions will exact a hefty toll on the economic outlook if actual flows of Russian exports of commodities are in the firing line. We discuss the impact and the risks across asset classes in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3p5rTZJ   -

Today we look at the market trying to find its feet as the Western sanctions against Russia's latest moves in the disputed eastern Ukrainian regions were seen as relatively measured. At the same time, central bank tightening expectations are picking up quickly again and the US yield curve has re-flattened sharply. Elsewhere, we look at the risks of sustained market volatility, high EU energy and power prices as far as the eye can see, gold, agricultural commodities, equity earnings in focus and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BDgmGe   -

Today we discuss the fresh market deleveraging triggered by Russian President Putin's recognition of the self-proclaimed republics carved out of eastern Ukraine, a move that was preceded by belligerent rhetoric that suggests that we have severed any chance at a diplomatic approach to the situation from here. The next critical step will be the nature of the sanctions from the US, the EU and UK and the degree to which these feed any further disruption for Russia-exposed entities and for the oil price. Elsewhere, we look at rising credit spreads, key equity stories and the focus on Europe and particularly Germany with the current geopolitical backdrop and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JEoZ6j   -

Today we look at the latest attempt by the market to piece together a rally on the hopes that a Biden-Putin summit is in the works, while  wondering what could be discussed that hasn't already been in any new talks and generally bemoaning the scale of noise in the current situation over Ukraine relative to the signal. Elsewhere, earnings season marches on, but largely winds down this week. We maintain a very defensive stance here as we await further developments, with the Fed even able to surprise on the hawkish side again if it would like to as the market has unwound most of its expectations for a 50-basis point lift-off at the March FOMC meeting.  

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3H1Hi3z   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the latest Russia-Ukraine headlines shaking up markets and whether there is much signal in the overall noise. More importantly, we discuss the "talk of the town" yesterday after the very influential Zoltan Pozsar (currently of Credit Suisse, but a towering figure in global finance after he helped coach the Fed and the US treasury through its response to the global financial crisis) wrote a short piece exhorting the Fed to get creative and craft a "Volcker moment". Such a moment would be an effort at tightening financial conditions by rattling global asset markets  rather than merely signaling a brutal series of rate hikes, which so far have tightened conditions very little and risk merely bringing forward a recession. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BskEAc   -

Today we look at Fed expectations ratcheting lower still despite a very strong January US Retail Sales report and a non-dovish set of FOMC minutes, an indication that the market felt it had taken Fed expectations too high recently (also making it easier now for the Fed to surprise again on the hawkish side). We look at the need for the Fed to steepen the yield curve and the difficulty it may find in doing so, the impressive run back higher in gold and the next levels to focus on there, UK yields and the next steps from the Bank of England and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, with John J. Hardy on FX and hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic