Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/36kgkrl    -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the market's possible overreaction to signs of a de-escalation in the Russian position on Ukraine, how quickly rising yields will again dominate the narrative even if the Ukraine situation fades as a factor, and why the Fed will have to trigger a recession, i.e., "break something" before we can expect any new round of easing, as well as possible time frames for an incoming recession. A look at upcoming key earnings results and macro calendar highlights as well, with the FOMC minutes of the January meeting up late today. John J. Hardy hosts.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gNULS0   -

Today, we look at the latest headlines from the Russia-Ukraine showdown improving the tone for risk sentiment as German Chancellor Scholz is in Moscow today for talks with Russian president Putin. We discuss the viciously flattening US and UK yield curves, the time window possibly closing soon for a Fed emergency rate hike, and where we are looking next for yields. We also note the deteriorating situation for credit, a vital component of financial conditions. The strength in gold, earnings and macro calendar and more in today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rOGGdq   -

Today, we look at the impact across markets after Friday saw the US warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, an intention Russia denies. German Chancellor Scholz is headed for Kyiv today and to Moscow tomorrow for talks. The headline risk has been ratcheted sharply higher with the latest escalation in tensions, and market participants will need to tread carefully. We also look at Russia's global weight in key commodities and look at the event risk calendars for the week ahead, as traders will also struggle to disentangle geopolitical tensions with concern on how rapidly policymakers intend to tighten financial conditions. Today's pod features  Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bck6OG  - 

Today, we look at the hot US January CPI data hitting the markets yesterday, with an interesting attempt at a whiplash inducing bounce in sentiment just after the data release dealt an initial blow to sentiment as more Fed hikes were priced into the forward curve. Then markets turned south again when St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voter Stephen Bullard later administered a hawkish broadside with thoughts on an emergency Fed rate hike, a rapid path to 100 basis points of hikes and an imminent start to quantitative tightening. We also look at the impact on commodity markets from yesterday's developments and the Bank of Japan doubling down for now on its yield-curve-control policy and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoiCFS   -

Today, we look at a the US equity market attempting a recovery into key resistance ahead of the macro data release of the week today in the form of the US January CPI. Elsewhere, bond yields also look pivotal after a very strong 10-year US treasury auction that saw strong foreign demand just after long US yields rose to new cycle highs this week. Plenty to focus on in equity markets after Disney and Uber boosted sentiment after the close and earnings season rolls on. In FX, focus on SEK and PLN on respective central bank developments and the rise in yields in EU countries saw strong demand at sovereign auctions. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oAYu9z   -

Today, we look at a market that seems to be holding its collective breath in a pivotal zone for chart technical as earnings continue to roll in and as yields have surged to new highs for the cycle in many countries, not least in Japan, where the Bank of Japan's yield cap at 0.25% may soon find itself challenged. A look at crude oil and softs, equity market focus, whether the 70's experience is relevant for today's equity market and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uwk9nl   

Today, we break down another shaky session for equities as yields continue to surge higher ahead of a series of important US treasury auctions today through Thursday and ahead of Thursday's US January CPI print. We also focus on EU peripheral spreads blowing wider as the market wonders who will replace the ECB's bid if the central bank stops expanding its balance sheet. A look at drivers for the crude oil and metals markets, earnings overview for today and more also on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3J6iZ5Z   - 

Equities were pulled out of potentially a selloff into the weekend on Friday by a 14% gain in Amazon shares and this morning equities are trading slightly higher. However, risks are still everywhere with tightening financial conditions, Ukraine-Russia tensions, high energy prices, high inflation and an elevated VIX curve suggesting the market expects above average volatility over the coming months. We also talk about the oil markets which are digesting potential oil shock from Ukraine-Russia conflict, tight inventories in the US which have eased a bit, and talks between the US and Iran. We also cover our weekly COT report which highlights changes in speculative futures positions across a wide range of commodity markets. Finally, we go through the earnings and macro calendar, with especially earnings this week being interesting with many large cyclical stocks reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWMxA4   - 

Today we discuss the whipsaw action in equity markets as the US first closed weakly after Facebook parent Meta Platforms suffered the worst single day market cap loss for a US company in history, only to see the market enthusing, rather oddly, over Amazon and Snap results after hours. We also break down the Bank of England and ECB meetings, where Lagarde opened the floodgates by admitting that the ECB would review its policy on inflation at coming meetings. Also, the market looks ready to ignore a very ugly US January nonfarm payrolls change print today, choosing instead to focus on earnings. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWONap  -

The US S&P 500 closed the session yesterday right on a key retracement level before crumbling after hours on a weak guidance from Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Spotify, adding the recent pattern of extreme sensitivity to surprises in earnings report. On that note, we're holding our breath for the Amazon earnings call today. We also discuss the BoE and ECB meetings today, which almost have to surprise after the surge in expectations for more hawkish guidance, particularly for the ECB. Also - crude oil is looking a bit tired technically even as the supply situation remains tight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic