Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Z9fkTx   -

Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market  divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast is a long-form chat with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo's Chief Economist and CIO, who takes us through what makes him uneasy about the market today and where it is trading and current narratives relative to what likely awaits in terms of inflation and real growth outcomes down the road.  The Fed's policy mistake, FX themes, dysfunction in Europe and more are addressed in the conversation with Steen and host John J. Hardy. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3qQI8M5   -

Today we run through some stark divergences as the US equity market posts new highs, noting weak breadth and other indicators that in the past have suggested higher risk of an episode of consolidation. We also look at interesting signs in the T-bill auctions that the market remains wary of the debt ceiling situation that hasn't yet gone away. Also, a look at crude oil, gold and rising food prices, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/30zbljw   -

Today we issue another general note of caution on the status of global equity markets, which look stretched even if there are rational (real yields) and especially seasonal narratives in support of recent developments. Elsewhere, we dive into Amazon's broadside against Visa, whether that company and Mastercard could see eventual pressure on margins, other key equity stories and earnings, the dire potential supply situation for European natural gas, the very weak euro and a weak German 30-year bond auction, US treasuries and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Duesb5   -

Today we look at a fresh major spike in natural gas prices in Europe driving new concerns for the European economy and for the euro itself, which has lost significant further altitude. We also ponder where to look if EU outlook concerns turn more existential rather than merely a question of "relative outlook". The latest on crude oil, spiking coffee prices, US retail sales data and how to interpret it and much more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3owExjp   -

Today we look at the importance of yields for next steps in the equity market, covering the US, UK and German sovereign yields, but also highlight the pain trade of the US dollar extending higher from here, looking at the interesting divergence in our global risk indicator relative to the elevated equity market, the output gap in the US being fully closed, Fed policy mistake, stocks and earnings in the spotlight today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3kDi03f   -

Today we look at how the US equity market finished on a strong note despite the hot US CPI print last week bringing Fed rate hike expectations forward and the latest US sentiment survey suggesting that consumer sentiment is in the dumps. We also look at the earnings highlights for the week ahead, particularly for important Chinese names, the latest on energy prices, especially the natural gas situation in Europe and the escalating geopolitical situation on the EU's borders and in Ukraine and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

In this special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry sits down with Conor MacNeil which is the equity research analyst behind the increasingly popular investment newsletter Investment Talk. It is a conversation about Conor's background and how he accidentally stumbled into writing a newsletter on Substack, and how he is part of a growing group of independent research analysts on Substack providing high quality insights about investing in financial markets. We also talk  about his approach to equity investing and what he looks for before investing in a company for the long-term. Finally, we asked Conor to highlight two companies that he thinks have potential to outperform the market over the coming years. We hope you will enjoy the conversation as much as we did.

You can find Conor MacNeil on Substack with his Investment Talk newsletter and on Twitter under the handle @InvestmentTalkk

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3c2kNhS   -

Today we look at the tense situation in markets after the hot US October CPI print on October and then yesterday's awkward bank holiday-warped session, as well as whether Fed expectations are really driving the US dollar, not to mention China maintaining its currency near recent lows in USDCNH. Elsewhere, we look at the very tense situation in Europe as natural gas prices refuse to continue lower and the potential for geopolitical mishaps on the Polish/Belarus border and/or in Ukraine. Also: the still busy earnings calendar for the week ahead, which features some of the highest profile Chinese tech names, as well as the macro calendar, where we highlight a potentially interesting speech from Fed Vice Chair Clarida late next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/308prbs   -

Today we look at yesterday's painfully hot US CPI inflation readings and the reactions across markets, as traders rushed to price in a faster pace of Fed lift-off next year, generally sold US Treasuries and risky assets and snapped up the US dollar. But the most important move yesterday was in gold, which ripped through major resistance and was up across the board as real yields dropped further on the US inflation data - making the most interesting macro statement of the moment. Also, we look at key equity stories for the day ahead, run down the US,  EU and UK sovereign yields and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi  on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic