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A market story is only as good as the portfolio that can survive it. Hugh Hendry sat down in London to explore risk from first principles. Why playful, curious, even mischievous thinking can beat credentialed certainty, and how to build an allocation that thrives whether AI delivers a productivity super‑cycle or ushers in painful dislocation. The conversation tugs at the great plaster on the body politic : consumer sentiment scraping historic lows while prosperity narratives soar.

Hugh breaks the problem into a simple, repeatable framework: four macro quadrants: dollar cash serving both as collateral and yield, broad tech equities for growth, long‑duration bonds for rare mean reversion hedge, and alternatives, including gold, private assets, property, and crypto for convexity. 

He explains how the bond market’s shock: long dated Treasuries halving as banks shorted futures to hedge mortgage books in the 2020-22 era, created a once‑in‑a‑generation possible profit setup if rates drop and American households refinance en masse. 

A path where a misread neutral Fed policy rate and a frozen refinancing market could flip the script, reopen housing, and make out‑of‑consensus rate bets extraordinarily lucrative. The lesson isn’t to idolise a forecast; it’s to price the consequences and size for survival and profit.

He also gets specific on price compression: why multi‑decade ceilings matter more than pundit stories, how the Nasdaq’s breakout unlocked a fivefold run, and where similar patterns may be brewing in silver and Japan. If you’ve wondered how to stay invested without becoming a hostage to the latest narrative, this is a clear playbook: pre‑commit your belief, right‑size your risk, and use the market’s own footprints to time your aggression.

If this conversation sharpened your thinking, follow the show, share it with a friend who obsesses over macro, and leave a quick review to help more curious investors find us.

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A faster lap by going blind sounds reckless until you hear Lando Norris say he drives better with the delta display switched off. That’s the spark for a bigger idea we explore: acid capitalism, where imagination and shared beliefs move markets more than the neatest spreadsheet ever can.

We start with the critique that more frequent shows dilute intrigue and use it to sharpen the mission: reduce noise, focus on decision design. From there we test how narrative beats decimals in places you wouldn’t expect. An F1 franchise marked at six billion becomes a case study in brand economics. Nvidia stops looking like “just chips” and reveals its platform moat through CUDA and TSMC’s world-class execution, while hyperscalers quietly stretch asset lives to boost reported earnings. Tesla’s 20-quarter coil is not dead money; it’s stored energy that can compress a future rerate positive or cataclysmic into a single year. Meanwhile, China’s 10-year yield hovering below 2 percent acts as a simple, powerful tell for local equities.

We also dig into mispriced complexity. Spirits makers face a brutal cobweb: whiskey needs a decade, tequila seven years, and changing demand punishes inventory mistakes for an age. That’s why Diageo and peers trade near decade lows; not because the category is broken, but because time is. Pain today sets up tomorrow’s scarcity. We map one pragmatic approach: harvest option income against depressed, range-bound leaders to grind down cost basis while you wait for pricing power to return.

Along the way, we examine Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy premiums, joke about longevity supplements, and acknowledge the temptation to obsess over every decimal point. The takeaway is consistent: decide what to ignore. Turn off the dashboard that steals your attention, then do the simple, hard work and respect cash over optics, find moats that scale, and back visions that mobilise real capital.

Enjoyed the ride? Follow, share with a friend who loves markets with edge, and leave a review telling us what you’d switch off to see better.

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Markets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payroll prints, and a tech slide that turns “AI capex” from dream to doubt in a heartbeat.

I break down how cobweb dynamics and inventory timing errors ripple from toothpaste to autos, why tariffs distorted the clock on purchases, and where the data is more theatre than truth. China’s export picture adds another twist: a bilateral surplus that widens even as shipments to the US shrink, exposing the difference between volume and value in a tariff world. We dig into the money plumbing too, because it’s no longer just M2. Offshore dollar creation rides on the collateral of investment portfolios, trade invoices, rehypothecated claims that shape and form money in ways the Fed doesn’t fully map.

For investors, the practical edge is structure and levels. Options now mediate the market’s mood, turning volatility into potential income when used with care. Covered calls on quality after big drops can pay you to wait, but path risk matters. We map Meta’s gap fill and key Fibonacci retracements, and consider Oracle’s round‑trip as a reminder that narratives can outrun cash flows. The stance is clear: acknowledge the pullback, respect the signs of strain, and build selective shopping lists rather than chasing every bounce. Let the market pay you for patience, and let price confirm when the turn is real.

If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, share it with a friend who trades the headlines, and leave a quick review. Tell me what level you’re watching next. I’ll bring the charts.

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What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the form of sharp pullbacks.

We dig into why professionals rarely short meme‑charged leaders like Palantir even when valuations look unhinged, and how the “malicious” habit of strong markets is to snap back toward the one‑year moving average before pushing higher. Along the way, we revisit the Supreme Court’s tariff signals, the politics of New York’s vote, and the way those headlines filter into liquidity creation via trade flows. On jobs, we unpack an ADP beat that hides softness in information and professional services while healthcare and utilities carry the print, and we talk frankly about how AI threatens a quarter of tasks, particularly in admin and legal support.

Finally, we ask a contrarian question: is Apple right to avoid an AI capex arms race? Preserving balance sheet flexibility might be the smarter bet if we’re edging toward a collateral recession where financing gets stingier and optionality becomes a moat. Expect volatility, not apocalypse; respect the cadence of liquidity; and plan for violent, normal pullbacks within long trends. If this perspective challenges how you track markets, follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review. What’s your top stress indicator right now?

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When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic.

Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why. 

Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’s CarMax hedge to the intricacies of dating, calculating sexual market value and the Fed’s confused dance with Treasury policy, Hugh dissects how a “Z-score of 3” moment becomes a one-in-a-thousand event that reshapes portfolios.

He links collapsing used-car stocks to compressed thirty year immigration trends, digs into the stealth recession in U.S. housing, and considers how risk managers unknowingly amplify panic by reducing exposure. Along the way he spotlights Martin Marietta, BioNTech’s AI ambitions, and why the next big opportunity may lie inside America’s housing-linked equities.

This is a raw, late-night macro sermon from St Barts: part reflection, part market therapy. Traders and macro mavens will find insight in Hugh’s irreverent exploration of fear, liquidity, and conviction.

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The Ricardian Equivalence, Treasury Debt, and the Modernity of Money

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Do Deficits Make You Rich?

The uncomfortable truth: fiscal stimulus creates wealth, not consumer inflation.

Sat pondering in a Caribbean bar, thinking about intelligence, the Fed, deficits, and why inflation lives in Wall Street not in your supermarket basket. When the government runs a deficit, it injects reserves into the system, an automatic overdraft with the banking system. Later it issues Treasuries that drain those reserves. Economists call it a swap. Net financial wealth in the private sector rises because no one in the private sector owes that shortfall. The government owes it. Not another private entity.

So does government spending make you rich? Deficits don’t spill into the supermarket, they seep into the trading book. Treasuries move through repo markets, pledged and rehypothecated, transformed into money-like instruments that lubricate leverage. CPI stays calm while portfolios swell. Fiscal deficits expand collateral, leverage builds, and asset prices rise. The inflation we should fear isn’t at the checkout counter. It’s in the mirror of prudence we call Wall Street.

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In this acid breath of mine, I drift between the sublime and the sardonic. 

I trace how America, once the debtor, became the empire, how quantitative easing rewired the flow of wealth from the cautious creditor to the restless entrepreneur. 

China hoarded savings, America dis-saved, and the machine rolled on until an  American administration was bold enough to call time. Gold gleams like a reflexive meme, Bitcoin hums like a ghost in the circuitry, but US equities might just scream louder toward 10,000 on liquidity fumes. 

Tariffs, deficits, and Fed theatrics are the new imperial tributes. Maybe the real story is that America, by pretending to be reckless, keeps proving it’s the only grown-up in the room.

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I began with CPI, but as usual, I ended up somewhere between Beethoven and gold. The headline CPI 3%, core the same. The whisper was higher. The market calls it “Goldilocks.” Not too hot, not too cold. I call it “Never be a dick for a tick.”

That’s how you survive this racket. Everyone obsesses over decimals while the system quietly breaks and remakes itself. The models are wrong, the Fed’s neutral rate misplaced, and shelter data a bad joke.

Markets have music. Sometimes off key, sometimes perfect pitch. Beethoven wrote his best symphonies when he couldn’t hear. Euler saw math more clearly after he went blind. My best trades happen when I stop staring and listen. Markets are sound before they’re numbers.

Then someone messages me: “Copper, all the way.” I laugh. NVIDIA doesn’t need a century of copper. The chips use little. The heavy copper is in data centers, transformers, cables feeding the AI gods. One megawatt of data power needs twenty-seven tons. There’s a story there, but not the one the hype merchants sell.

Copper is pregnant in expectation. It mirrors the world’s mood and that mood is uncertainty. The charts show past booms and fatigue. The next leg will come from real demand, from grids and wires that make the world hum.

Gold refuses to fade. I mocked it before, but I’m giving it credit. Maybe this rise is necessary, the price to end mercantilist misery. China’s citizens buy stablecoins and gold to escape the red cabbage trap. They know seven cabbage for a dollar is a steal.

America sits on 262 million troy ounces. At ten thousand an ounce, that’s 2.5 trillion in fiscal firepower. While everyone says “Rome is falling,” they’re wrong. This isn’t the fall of America; it’s the fall of Chinese communism.

Russia produces forty percent of global palladium, quiet leverage no one mentions. Even Trump treads carefully. Geopolitics meets gigawatts. Metals and power are the same story.

I’ve talked CPI, Beethoven, copper, gold, palladium, geopolitics. A full orchestra. I never promised coherence, only curiosity. The market, like life, is a fuzzy cloud. You don’t predict it. You play with it.

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Perhaps the best, most revealing of this daily series. This is macro analysis as cabaret. 

The Japanese call it, rakugoka (落語家), a man in kimono, I have no kimono, seated on a cushion performing poignant financial monologues. The entire performance relies on market imagination.

If in a hurry, skip the first 15 to 30 mins. You can't miss what follows. 

American housing flickers, Kansas manufacturing hums, and in Asia the monetary plumbing begins to shake. 

I explore why China’s rush for gold and silver may mark a moment of serious realignment, not a dollar crisis but a yuan debasement in disguise. 

From red cabbage money growth to America’s quiet advantage in gold reserves, this episode follows the strange heartbeat of global liquidity. 

Traders sense it, investors feel it, and the numbers whisper change. 

Listen to Acid Breath and step inside the wave function of markets before the next revaluation begins.

𝔸𝕔𝕚𝕕 ℂ𝕒𝕡𝕚𝕥𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕤𝕥™ 🖤⚔️💣

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