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The Acid Capitalist podcast | Psychedelic Therapy

Do you watch @SHO_Billions? If so, you’re going to love this week’s episode of the Acid Capitalist podcast. Listen here now: 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcasts/id1511187978?i=1000568464181

CC @DeniseKShull

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Another live performance reflecting on tribal questions and the precipitous decline in commodity prices one week after the Fed's latest interest rate hike.

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I hate Fridays.This week we had a bantam weight world title decider between the contrarian and the populist. The Acid Capitalist squares up against Dylan Grice. Dylan spent years as a macro advisor tussling with the world's best hedge fund minds. He's worth a listen although the passing years haven't been kind. Still he's coining it in 😘

He takes us through his fund of fund allocations which have paid off this year. We go way back to discover revelations from his earlier career; just what was the payroll number? Schwager interviewed macro talents who could dream the number, Dylan wasn't bothered...

Everyone has a 2008 story. @dylangrice worked for disgraced Ponzi hedge fund manager Bernie Madoff ! An impressionable Dylan thought they rivalled Buffet in the liquidity stakes that fateful winter, little did he realise that he was part of a giant money laundering scheme.

Later @dylangrice was invited to pay his respects at the Manhattan palace of the great Carl Icahn. He regales us with the wonders of what he found there. If Steinhardt kept a gun in his drawer, Carl was more a hammer type guy. A young Dylan feared his seat was rigged to eject

#hedgefunds #macro #economics #trading #deflation

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Another live edition. Humpty Dumpty? Remember the children's poem.  With all the king's horses and all the king's men. They couldn't put Humpty together again...Are we closing the chapter that saw asset prices surge post the great financial crisis? Inflation or deflation? Which crisis seems more likely to the shroomers? The church debates.

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We're joined by the Macro Compass writer, Alfonso Peccatiello, former bank prop trader, to discuss all things macro in the wake of JP Morgan's chief, Jamie Dimon, issuing a hurricane warning - bad things are coming. 

We examine the meteorological  landscape.

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The Acid Capitalism show went live this week. The Alchemist's hair morphed into a flock of seagulls. The Acid Capitalist levitated above the week's noise. He's a plastic thief with no belief in what he steals. A shirtless Good Kid B.a.a.d City holds it together. The Capitalist raps, 'The American Queen, she be smoking Prozac, The Totalitarians, they be smoking Napalm.' Macro thoughts from a bunker on a ting rock on a sea of oblivion. The church is open for prayers

#chinanews #economics #trading #tradingstrategy #apocalypse 

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There will be blood. Let’s discuss. The Acid Capitalist continues to fume about injustices. He has the Fed and the mercantilistes in his sights. First the global economy has failed to regain its previous trajectory of greater prosperity ever since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. GDP is lost somewhere over the Atlantic, destination unknown. The economy has recovered for sure but its no way near the level that a rational investor at the turn of the century might reasonably have expected. The shortfall at the global level might be more than $20 trillion. It’s absence froments social anger. There will be blood.

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Bloody hell. So much for stable coins. Fight it out in the comments; does anything matter anymore if the crypto well has been poisoned by lies and malfeasance? The Acid Capitalist saw a debate on twitter about whether he was a misunderstood genius or a pretentious riddler. Neither, he's a fool in a foolish world.

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The Alchemist explores the mysteries of hedge fund management further. This week's deep dive sees him wearing a suit! Can he cut it? The Acid Capitalist had a rough night but he's taken a magic pill to restore his superpowers and he eventually finds his mojo. This week we review central bank rate hikes. Surely, its the end, not the beginning? Private providers of credit have been raising rates since the summer of 2020. The US economy contracted last quarter. Official economic data is heavily revised in later years. Did the British economy relapse into recession last year? Just why are they insistent on more rate hikes? The Acid Capitalist is afraid, very afraid that equity markets might need to reverse all of their post covid glory.

But rather than accentuate the negative, he wants to offer guidelines and solutions. He believes that they should plead a mea culpa, their primary responsibility rests with preserving asset prices. Only by revealing that they're essentially custodian officers charged with preserving the collateral that underpins the huge debt mountain will we move forward. Better yet, they should move to enfranchise those citizens that have no assets. They should create a sovereign wealth fund. QE has only prolonged the depression. Better to impose a withholding tax on mercantilist nations that choose to park their trade bounty in treasury markets. These countries forsake endogenous domestic growth in favour of chasing exports. They perceive this as a more robust economic plan. But the world of international trade is the business of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

To enact their cunning strategy,  global savings must rise. In China, savings rise because their currency is set too low, preserving a comparative trade advantage that market capitalism would otherwise bid away. Without their state interventions their currency would rise to bring the world  into balance. Chinese households' incomes would reset higher and they might reasonably consume more. This does not happen. Instead savings rise; the share of consumption to gdp is remarkably low for such an advanced state.

The same  applies elsewhere. With their comparative advantage, their lower relative manufacturing costs, secured by their "cheap" currency, they bleed jobs and income security from western households. You might lose your job but you still have non discretionary commitments to make; mostly these are energy and food related, credit cards must be tapped to prevent hunger and freezing. This dictates that western savings ratios decline, and more and more debt is necessary to restore equilibrium. The cycle amplifies itself in favour of the mercantilist.

Whilst the Acid Capitalist's ire is presently directed at the central bankers, he recognises that the primary fault lies with the mercantilists. And so he proposes that western finance ministries  adopt a withholding tax. Think of it as an economic rent imposed on those who choose to game the economic system. Left unchecked, and it has been for way too long, we've created an extraordinary volatility machine that leaves today's risk markets in maximum jeopardy.

That's why the withholding tax ticks all the right boxes; it is vital not to throw grit into the global trading system. Global trade, if conducted properly, enriches all of us; but left in this perilous state it resembles the longest suicide note ever written. Charge them 3%. They wont balk; they'll gladly pay it. Nothing is too expensive in order to preserve the longevity of the Chinese Communist Party. Collectively, other nations own around $10 trillion of US Treasuries. A tax would raise $300 billion a year and it could underwrite a sovereign wealth fund that effectively underwrote the downside risks in equities and other risk assets.  

...continued on twitter @hendry_hugh

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This week's episode is probably the most profoundly ridiculous exercise in hyperbole ever attempted. The boys are sensing a regime shift. Volatility is like a prolonged period of high pressure in the atmosphere. Hedge fund types gunned it for all it was worth. Leverage, concentrated portfolios, lies and misdemeanours, they raked up huge profits and made themselves into billionaires many times over. 
But the times, they are a changing. Risk-less businesses are been revealed as risky. One by one, these feted masters of the universe are coming unstuck. We discuss. 
But we end on a deep dive into the theory of money. With US GDP contracting just as the Fed has committed itself to an aggressive hiking sequence of higher rates, we examine why they always seem so blind to events in the real world. Hiking during a depression has never worked. 
We've had four such calamities: 1830-1900, 1873 to 1900, 1930 to the onset of WWII and ever since 2008. They all ended with innovations: the railroads and the discovery of Californian gold, the chemical revolution of leaching that opened up the enormous S African gold supply and the mass adoption of telephony that facilitated  correspondent and then eurodollar banking.
At each turn, the free world attempted to rid itself of tyranny. First we removed monarchs and kleptocracies from their nasty habit of specie clipping, then we successively removed governments from money printing. One hundred years since the introduction of the land line, does bitcoin offer the prospect of removing the banks from money? It's a tantalising prospect and it goes far to explain why the Feds are hopeless with money and hence the economy. Truth be told, they're no longer active in the domain of money creation.

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