The ACID Capitalist Podcast

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former colleague, Tom Roderick, who manages macro at Trium in London, to review the revelatory and impending bust of China's legendary Evergrande Property. Macro hasn't been seen in Chinese waters for almost a decade. A strong currency with a positive carry and a stock market seemingly impervious to shocking state interventions has ensured a lack of willing naysayers. The Acid Capitalist, Hugh, and Tom, explains how China's property companies were the safest stocks in the global sector owing to their ability to transfer risk quickly. That the least risky companies are now in jeopardy does not bode well especially as Chinese property, relative to household wealth, is 4x greater than in the US. The boys consider a bull market in fear where sovereign Chinese bonds will supplant property as the de facto collateral position. They can conceive of a steeply inverted yield in a land more accustomed to wearing flats and they ask whether flaunting opulence and the mania for luxury may not sit well with the modern creed of common prosperity. Buckle up! This is macro conjecture for grown-ups.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions China's Geometric Risk Taking
02:45 Why Macro didn't Short the Red Lines
05:15 Why the $ is red Cabbage in Beijing
10:55 China Property Market was Risk Free
15:35 Fechner and the Geometry of Chinese GDP Growth
17:25 Why Now ? And the Grapes of Wrath
21:30 FX chart, Mad Max Leverage Internal or External ?
26:45 Everything is Macro
32:40 Is there a China Macro Trade with no Tears for Fears?
37:35 China the Land Of Flat Yield Curves
40.45 Stay At the Money with Your Strikes
42:00 Apathy is the Catalyst for Perplexing & Engaging Trades
46:15 Common Prosperity Questions Luxury Valuations

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to dive under the hood and examine how one becomes a hedge fund manager. They revisit the summer of 2005, the S&P has been marooned for 2 years moving sideways as the economy and corporate profitability improve. What would an aspiring young manager do?

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabe can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week we find a rather pallid Hugh cursing his demons from the night before and his newfound love of Pickle-Ball and tequila. Tom quizzes him on why he was 75% net long and not 35% or 120% long? And how did he size risk positions? How did he seek to optimize his portfolio in a world before the rule books had been written. Was this risk taking on the hoof, a form of dopamine bingo, with creativity the deciding risk factor? Hugh and Tom reveal all.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Acid Capitalist
05:10 Optimal Risk Sizing
10:30 Soros / Druckenmiller Lite Risk Model
14:00 Losing My Curiosity
15:15 The macro narrative of 2005
18:00 The Status Quo Changing
21:00 Dopamine Bingo - Creativity at Risk (CaR)
22:30 Eclectica Fund Attribution
28:00 Longs 2x Shorts but shorts bigger than longs..? 
30:00 2005 the year institutions crashed the Commodity scene
35:00 Not a Bull Mkt till you've had Violent, Painful Corrections

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites digital fashion entrepreneur, Karinna Knobbs, to provide another overlay between macro and tech and maybe even fashion? Ever wondered how hedge fund managers develop their ideas? Watch as Hugh interviews Karinna and they discuss THE DEMATERIALISED, an experimental marketspace for digital fashion including a system for the creation and trading of NFTs. Karinna founded the site with Marjorie Hernandez.

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week we find Hugh deep in thought and yearning to take macro, commercial. In a world dominated by surging asset prices and the gulf between the haves and have nots, Hugh quizzes Karinna to better understand the opportunity - can we make everything affordable? Ever wanted to eavesdrop on an interesting question? Ever wondered what it would feel like to be grilled by a grizzly hedge fund manager? Here's your opportunity.  Nothing is left unsaid, consumer psychology, Cracker - the legendary British tv series - asymmetric reality try-ons. Join us for some trans media storytelling

Chaoters:
00:00 Shared Confessions The Pattern Seeker
02:15 Multi Site Villa Rental St Barts
03:21 Good for everyone: creator platform influencer consumer
05:00 One third of the world population are gamers
06:30 Making Everything Affordable
11:25 Trans Media Story Telling
16:00 Asymmetric Reality Try Ons
18:30 The Drop $3.1M in 7 minutes
23:30 $6 Sneakers 
28:00 A Sexy Functional Platform
29:30 A Spatial Web in the Metaverse

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites technology savant, Benedict Evans, to provide an overlay between macro and tech. Together they explore the new questions: crypto, machine learning, shifts in ecommerce, what's happening in media, China, and it's 900 million users and their significance on the rest of the world.

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week they also discuss the convexity of adoption and why crypto as a tradeable asset could be as, or more effective, to the pressing issue of today - how do you kick-start a new network or community. Is it more effective than Instagram spending? The boys discuss. Hugh is ready to proclaim a new macro world. He can see a future were the economy turns people into assets. He gets very excited.

Chapters:
00:00 Shared Confessions Is it possible to tokenise knowledge
04:05 Comparing Crypto to Opensource technology
07:35 The Convexity of Adoption
11:40 Turn People Into Assets
13:45 The Irrevocability Bug of Tokens
14:30 All Financial Innovations go to far
17:15 Instagram reached 50m users with 7 people
19:00 Apple's new Ad Model
20:25 Duck Duck Go...The Google Token
23:50 Today's Icons - Zero Marketing
25:20 L'Oreal does 25% Sales online
28:25 Chinese Concepts Go Global

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Chapters:
00:00 Confessions Part XXI Fed Irrelevant. Macro Has Changed
01:30 3D Macro
03:20 De Carbonisation / De Globalisation / Demographics
06:30 A Commodity Bull Market with no Brakes
07:20 Oil Price $180 to $65 but 13 y later, GDP +2x & Wealth +3x
08:30 Does DeCarbon De-Nuke Corporate Profits?
10:00 One Bank will become risk seeking; others will follow...
14:00 Worst Becomes Best - Why you should BUY @ 1998 prices
16:40 Renault sold more electric cars in EU than anybody else
18:20 Commodities Trade @ Historic Value Lows 3x EBITDA
19:15 PGMs the Ethereum Commodity: Store of Value + Industrial App
21:25 Sibanye Stillwater / Anglo Plats / plus a few others
23:00 Expensive Annuity or V Cheap Perpetuity?
25:20 What does a Macro fund do with an 8x bagger?
29:40 Gold Miners/ Bitcoin Plus Dividends?

Support the show

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Hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites his former colleague Tom Roderick, the manager of the Trium Macro Hedge Fund, to review this week's crash in cryptocurrencies. They draw parallels with the tech bubble of the late 1990s and the pyramid of leverage that lay behind the housing bubble in late 2006. They discuss bitcoin's coming of age. With values soaring past one trillion dollars, crypto is no longer a cheap out-of-the money call option on currency debasement. Downside volatility will feature as prominently as the upside. Finally, they venture that real world applications for the currency could take bitcoin beyond its peak price.

Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry, chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's monthly client letter is deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week he also chronicles his fight with his old boss, Crispin Odey, that saw them go long and short the same stock in their different funds and Hugh concludes by examining the social mood of ESG, why it is likely to create a further and huge up leg in commodity prices and why gold prices feel like bitcoin at 10,000

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Macro Hedge Fund Manager offers more global insights and delivers a shellacking of Elon Musk, Tesla, and their incestuous menage-à-trois with Bitcoin. Comparing the ESG mood to the anti-bank sentiment in the 1930s, he compares Bitcoin with Lehman Brothers; is one as incongruous as the other? He takes us from a critique of dirty bitcoin to a deep dive into the Chinese steel industry - showing why the moribund steel sector could be poised to enter a bull market.

Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund using its monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights.

Support the show

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https://hughhendry.substack.com
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https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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Hugh goes back to the future to zero in on the hydroelectric income trust, Innergex, in the Canadian province of Quebec. Having invested back in 2005 he re-examines the business today, 16 years later. He also empties the tank on his disdain for fellows in suits and moustaches, the zeitgeist of impending inflation and what the big US banks are telling us. He even treats us to another spin of The Hendry Chart Rotator., this time reviewing the largest European stocks. And Hugh explains why the "sophistication" for market neutral strategies can creates absurdities and opportunities. He suggests that the fallen tech giant ,Nokia, could be set to crawl out from its shallow grave.

Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week, Elton John, Phil Collins and Run DMC pop up in the weekly song choice. Walk This Way people.

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Hugh gets X-rated unveiling his version of hardcore pornography - The Hendry Chart Rotator. 

He offers a lesson from what can be gleaned from chart patterns.  We discuss the shocking failure of Europe - youth unemployment - and why the banks are the cork in the bottle right now and an analysis of Sony recording their biggest ever annual net profit. Hugh even gets in an almighty fangle and confuses Hitachi for Toshiba. We've kept it not to spare his blushes. 

Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. They use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

There's also mention of Tesla, Elon Musk and Hugh goes all millennial by delving into social media phenomenon, Only Fans. Plus, we squabble over being from Scotland's biggest city, Glasgow - one of us was born and bred there, the other fled.

Support the show

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https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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Mick Jagger's Swagger warns us to be wary of Bitcoin

Hugh lifts the lid on how the pressures of working side by side with Crispin Odey drove him to seek refuge on Mustique, where he rented a house next door to Sir Mick Jagger and near Bryan Adams, He talks about how a drop in commodity prices in late 2004 hit him hard, but how he battled with the searing Caribbean heat (minus air-conditioning) to end the year +8%. 

Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. The boys use Hugh's monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was thinking and why he made the decisions he did, in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. 

This week there's also a look at the fall in Bitcoin, what a gap in a price chart signifies and Hugh reveals that he no longer knows where the Chinese currency should trade.

Support the show

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https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial

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