The ACID Capitalist Podcast

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In this episode of The Acid Capitalist, Hugh Hendry dives into the volatile world of FinTech, analyzing Wise and its market positioning compared to giants like PayPal. He shares insights from an encounter with a young, die-hard value investor, dissecting the risks of stock-picking in a sector riddled with landmines.

Are FinTech disruptors truly innovative, or are they just banks in disguise riding the interest rate wave? Hugh breaks down the hidden risks of cash transfer companies, the role of interest income, and why pricing wars could push margins to zero. With PayPal’s stock crumbling and Wise at an all-time high, is this the next big breakout or a ticking time bomb?

Join Hugh as he takes a contrarian look at the forces shaping FinTechs, from the battle for profitability to the long-term sustainability. 

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Welcome to a Christmas like no other, where I wrestle with the absurdities of modern finance and the strange beauty of human existence. From the quiet shores of St. Bart's, and it’s a quiet one for sure, Christmas morning and i’m about to post this to you all. There’s a cool macro economic essay in there somewhere. I wanted to get something, anything out there for this holiday season; I hope you can forgive the heavy breathing…

This is a meditation on what it means to live in a world where financial systems are warped mirrors of reality. Why does the U.S. economy continue to thrive against the odds? What does it mean when a stock doubles in a month, only to face existential doubt the next? Are we all, prisoners of a system that was never truly rational to begin with?

I reflect on moments from my own career, like the time I wagered against the optimism of Nokia in 1999 or found myself apologizing to a Carphone Warehouse magnate, my words echoing through the Mayfair offices as traders placed bets on how many times I’d say “sorry.” 

But this episode is mostly about life. About finding meaning in the noise, about letting go of the need for answers, and embracing the simple act of questioning.  

So, as 2024 fades into memory, join me in this moment of quiet reflection. Let’s step away from the screens, the data, the endless rush to predict the unpredictable. Let’s sit with the questions, about markets, about ourselves, and see what they reveal.

Because, as I sit here on a stunning Christmas day, staring at the endless blue of the Caribbean Sea, I'm reminded, that you and me, we don't have all the answers. But we've got really good questions. What happens when the Chinese stop buying US risk capital? Does the global stock market music stop?

These are THE questions for today. But they're questions worth holding onto as we head into the new year. Answers that will reveal themselves when they're good and damned ready to reveal.

So, Good luck, my brothers and sisters.

The spirituality of curiosity.

I leave it for you to decide.

Hugh

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Welcome to another episode of the Acid Capitalist, coming to you from the sun-drenched shores of St. Barts in the French Caribbean. This week, we’re diving headfirst into market mayhem, absurd tales, and the kind of insights you can only find here.

Palm trees. Santa Claus. Sleigh bells. An unlikely combination, yet somehow it works. St. Barts this time of year is pure energy: the priciest destination on the planet, unpredictable weather, and panicked yacht-dwellers caught in sudden downpours. It’s all a fitting metaphor for the markets, seemingly perfect, yet always poised for chaos.

Tesla’s doubled since the election. Bitcoin keeps grabbing headlines, and stocks were closing the year with a stunning 27% gain. It’s a world where expectations are sky-high, but danger lurks. I dive into the question: are we at the peak, or is there more room to run? And could Bitcoin really hit a million bucks? If you’ve been here since 2013, you know I’ve been calling this move for years.

An LA Tale: Karate Kicks and Markets

Sometimes, the markets behave like an LA socialite: confident, demanding, and completely unpredictable. I share a personal story from a glamorous night in West Hollywood. Picture this: a spoiled child, an audacious woman in a mini skirt, and a thigh-high karate kick that stopped just short of my chest. The parallels to the markets are uncanny: strutting in confidence one moment, delivering a shocking blow the next.

The Seduction of Now

The biggest trap in investing? Being consumed by the present. I explore the seductive mistress that is “now” and why it blinds us to the future. Looking back at my own missteps during 2008, I reflect on the importance of stepping back and imagining where markets might be 18 months down the line. Because the present? It’s rarely the full story.

A Tipping Point

China is wrestling with deflation and the consequences of years of aggressive policies. Their stock index is stuck at levels from two decades ago, and the yuan teeters on the brink of devaluation. Could this be the tipping point for a global economic reset? I explore what a weaker yuan might mean for global consumption, tariffs, and U.S. consumers. Spoiler: it’s not a rosy picture.

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This week, a journey through the bonkers world of financial markets, absurd cultural phenomena, and personal reflections from the splendid shores of St. Barts.

A Brief Memoir Moment

I share a childhood anecdote about an imaginary kangaroo in my parents’ wardrobe, a metaphor for life's absurdities and the early seeds of my contrarian mindset. From tales of youthful rebellion to the consequences of throwing stones at buses, I paint a vivid picture of life lessons learned the hard way and before the internet..

The Week in Markets

I dive into the paradox of December markets:

- Winners Ride High: Stocks like Nvidia continue their wild run, even as tech giants like Apple remain geopolitical pawns in the US-China game, the market cocks-a-snoop: Warren Who?

- The Madness of MicroStrategy: Michael Saylor's strategy of leveraging meme stock madness to buy Bitcoin? Genius or depravity? I call it capitalism at its most unhinged.

- Retail Phenomena: Ulta Beauty’s rise as the "crown jewel of vanity" and Estée Lauder's fall from grace become metaphors for the insecurity-driven consumer economy and a stock market seeking unattainable perfection.

Macro Musings

I connect the dots between today’s financial euphoria and the late 1920s:

- Foreign capital is flooding into US markets, fueling asset inflation and American exceptionalism.

- AI dominance, bolstered by the US tech ecosystem, is likened to the golden age of the 1920s.

- I critique the global disarray, from Europe’s leaderless states to China’s economic skids, and I hail America’s continued structural advantage.

Cultural Highlights

From Charles Aznavour’s La Bohème to Nekfeu’s Plume, I try weave some French musical genius into my narrative, underscoring the importance of art and reflection amidst financial madness.

Closing Thoughts

So keep tuning in for more acid insights, market musings, and the occasional existential riff. 

Because, together, unified, we’ve got the power.

Hugh

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A Life in Rebellion

You should listen to the Acid Capitalist Podcast.

It's my raw and revealing true story. It's about rebellion. The quiet, existential battle against the grey, the dull, soul-crushing monotony that sneaks into the cracks of life. This isn’t just my story, it’s the story of the markets, a cosmic dance between chaos and order, failure and transcendence.

The Rebel’s Genesis

I grew up in Glasgow, a city painted in every shade of grey. Not just the skies -though they did their part - but a deeper, existential grey. It seeps into your bones, wraps around your dreams like damp wool, and whispers, "This is all there is." But the thing about despair is that, at its nadir, it can break you or awaken you. For me, it cracked open a door, and in walked Mr. Rebel, my lifelong companion.

Markets as Rebellion

Markets are alive, messy, and paradoxical. You're maybe subscribing to investment trading videos. They're a con peddled by folks who've never managed money professionally. They’re shills. Markets are not built on fundamentals or formulas but on sentiment, much like the neurotransmitters in your brain. The yin and yang of your nervous system, that mirrors the speculative highs and lows of trading. To navigate them is to ride the wave of human emotion, teetering on the edge of reason. You need to hear my story.

The Void and the Dopamine Trap

My rebellion wasn’t about making money, though I did plenty of that. It was about proving to the grey world that I’d escaped. Like a Zen koan, the markets posed unanswerable questions: What is the sound of one hand clapping? Why do bubbles burst? What’s next?

I chased answers, built houses with swimming pools and tennis courts, and even tried to buy happiness on a tropical island. But the grey always seeped back in. It took me years to realize that heaven isn’t a place on Earth. It’s a state of mind, a rebellion against the self.

Zen and the Art of Acid Capitalism

In Zen, they speak of the gateless gate, the barriers we construct in our minds that don’t truly exist. The markets are full of these gates: self-imposed limitations, conventional wisdom, and the fear of uncertainty. To pass through them, you need to embrace paradox, chaos, and, yes, a little bit of mischief. Let me guide you through that gateless gate.

I hope you enjoy and keep your Acid Breath

Hugh

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I was born in Glasgow, a city carved by raw grit and humor, think of Sir Alex Ferguson and Billy Connolly. Not far from there, I began my career in Edinburgh, a mere fifty miles geographically, but an infinite leap in atmosphere. Imagine stepping into an aristocratic investment house, its rooms brimming with the ghosts of ambition and refinement. Suddenly finding yourself in the domain of tall men in their dead fathers' ill-fitting trousers. Aristocrats in suits hemmed just above their ankles, like ghosts of a forgotten mod era.

My first posting? The Japanese department, September 1990, nine months after the Nikkei’s spectacular peak at 40,000. I was young, unseasoned, but one thing I knew for sure: Japanese stocks were d-e-f-i-n-i-t-e-l-y not going back up anytime soon. Check the audio tape…

This week's show isn't about stock indices or investment attire. No, it’s about a curious creature, the tunicate. You see, the tunicate begins its life as a free-swimming entity, darting about the ocean with purpose and curiosity. It seeks, it explores, its a happy soul. And then, it finds its chosen spot, burrows its head into the seafloor, and, get this, it eats its own brain. Why? Because it no longer needs it. The tunicate’s life becomes rooted, passive, and fixed, content to filter nutrients from the passing current. A lobotomized existence, blissfully detached from the need for thought or movement.

It got me thinking. Is this not the state of many investors today? Consider the lobotomized meme stockholder, basking in the unthinking glow of rising markets. They’ve eaten their metaphorical brains, trading curiosity and action for the comfort of passive returns. They’re Holding On for Dear Life, foolish squirts I call them. 

Music or no music? You tell me. And are you getting the giggles when I get all meditative...

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Macro Meditation #2

Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system. 

That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.

Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.

I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply. 

So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists. 

Hugh

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Macro Meditation #2

Wow. Did you enjoy the Complexity episode? I went full zen on you. Deep breathing, tapping into the god-like forces within. Sounds crazy, right? Except it’s not. You are the god. The universe doesn’t revolve around some external queen bee or king. Nope, it’s you. But modern society? It’s been locking that realization away for centuries, creating gatekeepers, the constant buzz of traffic on the mental highway that runs through your mind. The incessant voices that keep you hustling, second-guessing, never questioning the system.

That’s why I lean into serendipity and synchronicity. I’ve found creative rebirth through breathing, through breaking on through to the other side. It’s about reconnecting to the magic kingdom within. Forget the false gods of Wall Street, religion or the carnival of politics. I don’t care who won the election, both sides are just the hapless lions in The Wizard of Oz, prowling around, but without the courage to challenge the status quo.

Speaking of which, let’s talk markets. Did you know the S&P has gone up nearly 60-fold since 1980? Fortunes have been made by the money changers, the witches of the east, Wall Street Barrons. Asset prices have soared on the back of globally suppressed labour costs and perpetually low rates. But for the average Joe? Stagnation. Real wages flatlined decades ago, communities frayed. And yet, we cheer every tick higher on the stock index, oblivious to the cost.

I want you to be courageous my curious mind warriors. To have the kind of courage that questions, that disrupts. The kind of courage you find when you strip away the noise, quiet the mind, and breathe deeply.

So, as I close out this meditation, let me remind you: it’s okay to be a little crazy. Embrace the complexity. Be curious. Be bold. And most importantly, keep being acid capitalists.

Hugh

Support the show

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Why Acid Meditation Matters for Investors: Embracing Complexity and the Chaos Within

Dear friends

I’m launching a meditation series that, I admit, may seem far afield from my usual punk-macroeconomic analysis. But this is no gimmick. It’s an exploration of how mastering the inner world of your mind can make you a better investor and a more resilient human being.

Why It’s Worth Your Attention

You might be asking, “Why should I, a seasoned or aspiring investor, care about meditation?” Here’s the brutal truth: Most investors lose money not because of bad strategies, but because they can’t manage their own emotions. Fear and greed are more dangerous than any market downturn. Acid Meditation is my answer to that problem. It’s about developing the mental architecture to withstand volatility, to spot and accept serendipity, and to harness the power of the unknown.

I’ve taken risks all my life. I know what it feels like to be on the edge, both financially and existentially. This meditation series is a distillation of that experience: a guide for how I’ve sought to understand not just the market but the deeper truths that govern my existence.

So, if you’re ready to challenge yourself, to engage with complexity rather than flee from it, and to elevate your thinking in a world that demands constant adaptation, then join me. Acid Meditation isn’t just for seekers of peace; it’s for warriors of the mind, those who dare to think differently and profit from it.

Let’s explore the edge together.

Hugh

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Mike Lynch, a man who faced down the giant of  US Justice, out maneuvered the legal behemoths, took on the law and emerged victorious—only to be taken by the cold, capricious hand of Mother Nature. Imagine it: overcoming insurmountable odds, the weight of the world against you, and yet, you rise. Then, in a cruel twist, you're snuffed out by the very seas that should’ve carried you home on a joyous victory lap of vindication.

And the loss of his number two, also acquitted by the US courts, on the very same day? That smacks of something truly out of whack—a malevolent force, a Keyser Söze-like figure, flexing its vindictive contempt. The unruly seas didn’t just take six lives; they dragged HP's corporate secrets to the seabed, locked away in the depths, perhaps forever.

Was it mere misfortune, or was there something more sinister at play? Watch this video, and together we’ll explore what might just be the greatest unfinished story of the 21st century. The seas may have claimed their due, but the truth is still out there, waiting to surface. R.I.P.  Mike Lynch.

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