The Breakdown

Square has announced a new initiative, titled “TBD,” that CEO Jack Dorsey describes as “focused on building an open developer platform with the sole goal of making it easy to create non-custodial, permissionless and decentralized financial services.” Dorsey intends the platform to be developed completely transparently: “open road map, open development and open source.”

In this episode, NLW puts the new initiative in the context of Square’s long-term relationship with Bitcoin, explains why it’s different from the company’s Square Crypto efforts and analyzes how different parts of the community are reacting to the news.

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The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Razor Red” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW addresses recent shifts in institutional and regulatory discussions on crypto, including:

• How BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees the state of crypto 
• ShapeShift’s final structural shift
• Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s stance against stablecoins
• A dissenting letter from two SEC commissioners

BlackRock made headlines when it entered the crypto market because it viewed bitcoin as a hedge play that could no longer be ignored. Now, this investment management company finds itself in a changed landscape as bitcoin prices have fallen from all-time highs. How has CEO Larry Fink’s view of crypto changed with this new price point?

ShapeShift, a global digital asset trading platform, was created with a vision of minimizing user-collected data. That vision was tarnished in 2018 when the platform began requiring basic information, resulting in a 95% loss of its user base. ShapeShift’s tumultuous history has added another chapter today with the announcement that it is converting to a decentralized autonomous organization, or DAO, owned by the users. Is this one step in a greater trend of fundamentally shedding corporate organizational power structures?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell countered Vice Chairman Randal Quarles’ pro-stablecoin stance in a recent testimony before Congress. While Quarles asserted successful stablecoins would make a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) redundant, Powell offered the opposite opinion: “You wouldn’t need stablecoins, you wouldn’t need cryptocurrencies if you had a digital U.S. currency.” Whose stance will win in the growing stablecoin versus CBDC debate?

Two members of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a letter of dissent following a SEC enforcement action against U.K. company Coinschedule for anti-touting provisions. The letter expressed the members’ disappointment at the lack of regulatory clarification following the Coinschedule opportunity and an overarching distaste at a lack of transparency surrounding crypto guidance. Will more members follow in their footsteps and push for a clearer SEC stance?

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The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Only in Time” by Abloom. Image credit: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes a stablecoin-focused speech from Randal Quarles, vice chair of the Federal Reserve, starting with a primer on developing trends related to the topic, including:

• CBDC discussion, investigation and development across global powers
• The ability of stablecoins to make a U.S. CBDC redundant 

The conversation around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is growing louder. In China, the digital yuan continues to roll out through lottery tests and, more recently, for use in the Beijing subway. Today, the European Central Bank announced a new two-year “investigation” period during which the ECB will prepare for a larger digital euro design phase with user consultation, regulatory discussions and market analysis. 

Still, NLW argues that we can’t view the rise of public CBDC discussions in the absence of the growing adoption of private stablecoins. While these private, fiat-pegged stablecoins seem increasingly in the regulatory crosshairs, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles recently argued the U.S. central bank and policy makers shouldn’t fear them – and that, indeed, when regulated properly, stablecoins might make the need for a CBDC redundant.

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The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Razor Red” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes value investor turned bitcoin bull Bill Miller’s contrarian take on a possible upcoming market bubble. Miller’s background lies in traditional markets, with a massive portion of his portfolio grounded in strategically held Amazon shares. That, in addition to his relatively early bitcoin investments, provides him with an insider perspective from an external base understanding of markets. While other top investors predict an “epic” market crash, Miller remains unconcerned. 

Today on the brief, NLW covers the most recent crypto market news, including:

• New CPI releases fanning the inflation debate fire
• Crypto volatility spillover risks to traditional markets
• Square’s forthcoming hardware wallet

Newly released Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers fuel an ongoing, contentious debate around inflation. While the Federal Reserve sticks to its “transitory” assessment, others are not so sure. How will the numbers change as base effects no longer become a valid explanation?

As institutional investors fill the crypto space, a “spillover” system risk concern becomes increasingly relevant. Is spillover just another piece of FUD, or is it an inevitable reality as traditional and crypto markets become more entwined?

Square’s teasing of a hardware wallet project is materializing. CEO Jack Dorsey tweeted no less than 12 guiding principles for the project, and the project lead more recently announced the company’s dedication to make “bitcoin custody more mainstream.” Although no exact timeline for release exists, Square’s project is an exciting step towards easier entry to bitcoin mobile and self-custody use.

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The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Only in Time” by Abloom. Image credit: Abscent84/iStock/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

In this episode, NLW focuses on:

• Inflation measures, impacts and who’s to blame
• News out of Paraguay concerning pro-bitcoin legislation

A recent “Wall Street Journal” survey of economists revealed they expect higher inflation rates to persist for years to come. “Money Week” ran an op-ed playing on the increased attention on inflation where they pin bitcoin as an unused hoard of productive wealth and a reason for inflation. Is bitcoin really to blame for expectations of continuing inflation?

El Salvador’s influence continues to permeate other nations hoping to make similar advances in crypto. On Wednesday, July 14, a Paraguayan “Bitcoin Bill” is expected to be introduced. Though the exact contents of the bill are not yet known, Paraguay would be the next country setting a positive stance towards crypto. 

Lastly, NLW covers more in bitcoin and crypto news. What does Grayscale’s move to make its Large Cap Fund a Securities and Exchange Commission reporting company mean? Also, can China’s post-COVID economic recovery be an indicator for what will happen in the rest of the world?

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On this edition of “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads an excerpt from Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s questions to SEC Chairman Gensler about crypto and crypto exchanges. NLW then reads an essay responding to Warren’s recent discussions of the topic from Murtaza Hussain called “Elizabeth Warren’s Bitcoin Blind Spot.”

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On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at how Wall Street momentum in crypto rose last year only to fade this year. With Circle coming to markets via a SPAC merger and Robinhood going public, is there a chance those events will bring some renewed excitement? 

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On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW analyzes President Joe Biden’s “Factsheet: Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy,” including:

• The shift in public sentiment against Big Tech
• The order’s implications to the tech and finance sectors
• Crypto’s decentralized nature as intrinsically anti-monopolist

For a period of time, tech companies enjoyed the highest public opinion among large corporations. However, the rise of ad-focused platforms and the advent of social media (with all its demons) encouraged increased scrutiny. Privacy concerns only add to the distaste toward companies including Amazon, Google, and Facebook.

With public opinion souring, governments are similarly implementing various regulation schemes as they become wary of the threat of monopolization. Take Europe, for example, which created the General Data Protection Regulation system, and China’s more aggressive actions against social media. The U.S. has dabbled in tightening its reins on big tech with an assortment of antitrust lawsuits, but President Biden’s recent executive order takes the mentality to a new level.

The public mindset and regulatory shift places crypto as the potential solution to concerns of monopolization. Crypto’s decentralization – its lack of CEOs and corporate power structures – make it an attractive path away from monopolies in the American economy.

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NLW explores the debate surrounding the GBTC unlock’s bearish or bullish nature on this episode of “The Breakdown,” including: 

• Historical impacts of market structure on prices
• GBTC’s influence on markets as its premium attracted investors
• Analysis of the GBTC unlock bearish vs. bullish debate

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC is an investment vehicle that allows institutional and public market investors to invest in bitcoin without purchasing the cryptocurrency directly. 

While many GBTC investors were simply looking for public market exposure to bitcoin, many firms also took a more strategic approach to capture the neutral arbitrage trade of GBTC shares trading at a premium to the native asset value (NAV) of bitcoin. The demand for public market vehicles coupled with a lack of other alternatives placed GBTC at a desirable premium. 

The GBTC NAV trade was a significant source of buying pressure through the back half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, but when the premium turned to a discount (thanks to a variety of factors, including competition from other bitcoin proxies in the public markets), that source of buying pressure dried up.

When an investor buys into GBTC, their shares are locked up for six months. More than 100,000 bitcoin worth of shares are expected to be released throughout July. The looming flood of shares into secondary markets has sparked a debate on whether the unlock will be bearish or bullish for the spot price of bitcoin. 

Featuring commentary from Lyn Alden, Loomdart, Willy Woo and more.

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Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW explores what he calls “the shifting tectonic plates of the global social order.” On one side, he argues, are the forces of de-globalization, with nations turning inward and focusing on economic sovereignty. Part of that is states exerting more control over corporations and Big Tech. On the other is a process of de-nationification, where powers previously reserved for states – such as printing money – are increasingly in the hands of new internet-based networks and corporations. This shapes the larger context of crypto disruption and puts a lens on understanding the growing regulatory debate. 

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