The Breakdown

On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at:

• Two more massive fundraises 
• A set of positive regulatory news 
• A new partnership that will bring bitcoin directly to bank accounts and credit unions around America 

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Last night was one for the history books. As Elon Musk was making weird, stupid jokes about bitcoiners, the president of El Salvador was live on YouTube discussing what amounts to a $117 million BTC airdrop to citizens as a part of the recently passed law making bitcoin legal tender in the Central American nation.

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The passing of an icon in crypto necessitates reflection. John McAfee was at times reviled, and at the same time, deadly serious and a prophet, sometimes a clown. The many facets to his personality mirror the roller-coaster history of crypto, a Wild West of finance in its earliest days.

Join NLW in this episode of “The Breakdown” for a journey first through the winding history of McAfee, followed by a narrative tour of the many flashpoints in the “gonzo” era of early crypto.

Full transcript: https://www.coindesk.com/podcasts/coindesk-podcast-network/john-mcafee-end-crypto-gonzo-era

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Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW looks at the contrast between growing bear market sentiment versus a sustained set of high-profile eight and nine figure financing rounds across multiple dimensions of the crypto market. Specifically, he looks at funding deals in NFTs, DeFi and institutional bitcoin, arguing that even if we do head into a bear market, that capital is likely to mean a return to bull more quickly. 

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Lyn Alden, investment researcher and strategist with a keen eye on both crypto and traditional markets, joins NLW on today’s “The Breakdown.” Listen for a conversation about the state of the market and projections for the future including:

• Inflation: base effects and transitory in nature or here to stay?
• Foreign debt markets tapering off
• The Lightning Network and predictions for the success of El Salvador

Inflation at a high number, 5%, leaves investors and market observers jumpy. On top of that, many have a hard time believing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s narrative for inflation as outlined in the recent FOMC meeting. How is this inflation different from previous spikes?

The foreign sector has historically been a large buyer of Treasurys in structural trade deficits. In 2013, China stepped away from this practice and started investing in its own infrastructure and in other regions across the world. Even if other countries continue to invest in U.S. assets, it is increasingly in hard assets like stocks or real estate. Will the dollar weaken as the Fed is forced to be the primary buyer of U.S. Treasurys?

El Salvador’s commitment to bitcoin as legal tender is one thing, but what will the reality of this new currency look like? Bitcoin’s Lightning Network provides easy access and transaction speeds, so long as enough of the general population has access to smartphones.

Lastly, with the public’s attention captured by the current inflationary moment, what market features are getting underreported? Tune in to hear Alden’s perspective on what will have an unexpected impact in the upcoming cycles, including the potential for a significant energy shock in the years to come. 

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On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW takes a look at the most recent crypto news before taking a deeper dive into the latest step in the de-Chinafication of bitcoin.

 

• MicroStrategy going “all-in” on bitcoin

 

• Michael Burry’s warnings on Twitter of the “Mother of All Crashes”
• The “dot plot shock” and post-FOMC meeting confusion
• Accelerating China mining ban

While in this in-between state, post-COVID and pre-monetary policy tapering, institutional investors find themselves on diverging and opposing paths. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy has gone “all in,” while at the same time investor Michael Burry took to Twitter with warnings of an upcoming “Mother of All Crashes.” Confusion following the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting only adds to the contention between investors with contrasting visions for the near future of crypto.

The Central Bank of China has convened a meeting with the major banks to reiterate and tighten previous policies on the prevention of virtual currency transactions in bank accounts. Is this restriction on crypto transactions yet another indication that China is taking a more aggressive stance against bitcoin?

More to this point, Sichuan became the most recent province to crack down on crypto mining. Sichuan, primarily mining with hydropower, seems to diminish previous ban reasoning citing environmental concerns. How far will China go to remove itself from bitcoin, and what does that mean for its citizens and the crypto space as a whole?

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On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads “How the Civil War Shapes the Future of Stablecoins” by Franklin Noll, and discusses the recent debates around stablecoins and CBDCs. 

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This week on “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap” NLW covers:

• More institutional bitcoin news, including a new Morgan Stanley fund from NYDIG and FS Investments and a Goldman Sachs trading partnership with Galaxy Digital 
• A resurgence of “crypto is for criminals” FUD plus new China miner shutdowns in Sichuan 
• The latest debates around El Salvador’s bitcoin law 
• Rumblings of bitcoin in Nigeria, CFA countries and Ethiopia 

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The idea of a multiyear supercycle is fading as shorter cycles take their place. In this episode, NLW and guest Larry Cermak, director of research at The Block, discuss the transformation of the supercycle timeline as the crypto space evolves. The discussion includes:

 

• An analysis of the macro-narrative and the current “wait-and-see” mode

 

• Shorter cycles taking hold as the crypto space matures

The larger institutional narrative promised a bevy of substantial allocators to contribute to the market. That narrative, however, has weakened over time as the promise falls short. Add on the uncertainty from China’s partial ban on mining and Tesla’s environmental concerns, and the narrative continues to lose momentum. What narrative will take over next? When will this “wait-and-see” mode end?

Historically, crypto was perceived to fall into semi-stable cycles. For a couple of years, prices would rise, and for the next two or three years after, prices crash. However, with longer-term investors and a broader focus on usability over speculation, is there now a foundation for a more stable market with shorter cycles? 

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On today’s episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW first follows up on yesterday’s episode about the FOMC meeting and a potential future shift in Fed policy. As many expected, the Fed kept its short-term policy the same, but revised forward its estimates for when it will begin rate hikes to 2023. 

The main discussion focuses on the latest from the Bitcoin Mining Council. Yesterday, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor hosted a 90-minute discussion via Twitter spaces that featured many pointed questions. NLW argues that what’s clear from the session is Saylor is focused on scaling bitcoin from a $1 trillion asset to a $100 trillion network and fighting anything that stands in the way. 

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