The Breakdown

On this extended-brief style episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW discusses recent news, FUD and policy in the world of crypto, including:

• The ransomware group behind the Colonial Pipeline attack strikes again
• An increasing list of regulatory actions against Binance
• The China crackdown on crypto trading

The attack against Colonial Pipeline pushed ransomware fears to a new level. REvil, the same group behind the Colonial attack, stuck once again. Kaseya, a company providing network-management services, was the most recent victim. With one million machines infected, the media and regulators look for an easy target to blame for the increase in ransomware attacks. Who will take the fall: Russia or Bitcoin?

Binance continues to fall under increased regulatory scrutiny. Barclays Bank, one of the U.K.’s biggest, has stopped card payments to Binance. At the same time, Thailand filed a criminal complaint against the company, and the Cayman Islands said Binance would not be allowed to do business there. Though Binance is the current target, do these actions suggest a shift in sentiment from banks and regulators on crypto?

China’s crackdown on crypto continues, this time with an emphasis on trading. The business administration department of the People's Bank of China and the Beijing Financial Supervision and Administration bureau issued yet another warning about crypto trading. This warning was joined by an enforcement action against Beijing Qudao Cultural Development Limited, as well as Didi, a popular ride hailing app. Is China banning itself from crypto?

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This conversation was originally released as a sponsored content webinar from Circle and CoinDesk. NLW decided to release it on his podcast of his own volition and was not paid to do so. The conversation covers why institutions are becoming interested in DeFi, which institutions are starting to participate and what barriers remain. 

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On this holiday edition of “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads Jeff Dorman’s “Debunking 10 Digital Asset Bear Market Theses.”

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On this edition of “The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at:

• Why this week’s congressional hearing suggests elected officials are taking crypto more seriously 
• A slate of CBDC news from around the world
• The beginning of a new macro narrative for Ethereum and DeFi 

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Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW looks at the latest in the highly dynamic, fast-evolving world of bitcoin mining, including:

• China’s mining ban and the “Great Western Hashrate Migration”
• Bitcoin’s built-in hashrate fluctuation mitigation, the “difficulty adjustment”
• The Bitcoin Mining Council’s newest sustainable mining figures

China’s expansive mining ban, including regions with hydroelectric power, forced China-based miners to liquidate some of their crypto in preparation for a move elsewhere. Where will hashrate move next? Will miners join U.S. crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Texas and Kentucky, or will they stay close to home in bordering countries like Kazakhstan and Russia?

The ban induced a massive reduction of hash power on the network. Luckily, Satoshi prepared for such a circumstance and built in a concept of “difficulty adjustment” into Bitcoin’s protocols, which allows for fluctuation in the composition of miners. The adjustment expected to be made tonight will be the highest adjustment ever made on the network.

Lastly, NLW addresses a report released by the Bitcoin Mining Council on sustainable energy disclosures. This report’s feature number, 56% of mining electricity mix is sustainable in Q2 2021, has some groups excited while others remain skeptical of the validity of the report. As NLW argues, “Some data is better than no data.”

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In this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW discusses a fresh wave of investors and their potential disruptions to markets, including:

• Two new major hedge funds, Point72 and Soros Fund
• Inevitable short-term investors as part of market maturation
• Troublesome possibility of regulation forming around institutional trading habits

In early 2020, institutional investors flowed into the crypto space nonstop, including hedge funds, corporate treasuries and insurance companies. This new type of investor changed the space, with surging and plunging prices following news of investors coming and going. Then the flood stopped as the always-controversial Elon Musk’s Tesla balked at bitcoin’s energy consumption and walked back accepting the top cryptocurrency in exchange for the company’s trendy vehicles. 

In the last quarter, institutional investors have been stepping back into crypto. Point72, Steve Cohen’s company, stated it would be “remiss to ignore a now $2 trillion cryptocurrency market” and is looking to hire a “Head of Cryptocurrencies.” Besides Point72, internal management at George Soros’ Soros Fund has given the “greenlight to actively trade bitcoin.”

Are these two hedge funds just the tip of the iceberg for a resurgence in institutional investment? How will this new mass of money impact markets and regulation?

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An interview with a congressman followed by a congressional hearing on crypto signal policymakers are moving to the next phase of talks about regulating crypto.

• Troubling comments in Congressman Bill Foster’s interview with Axios
• Upcoming committee hearing titled ominously “America on ‘FIRE:’ Will the Crypto Frenzy Lead to Financial Independence and Early Retirement or Financial Ruin?”

Foster has historically been a champion of the crypto market: He is a co-chairman of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus and was previously supportive of the future of crypto. However, in his recent Axios interview, his tone flipped, as he went as far as to suggest the need for a “cryptographic backdoor” to allow the court the ability to view or even reverse transactions. Is Foster’s new viewpoint indicative of a greater shift in policymakers’ attitude toward crypto regulation?

Today’s House Committee on Financial Services hearing with a particularly colorful title is yet another signal for an upcoming regulatory push in crypto. The hearing’s agenda includes a discussion of bad actors on decentralized currency exchanges, or DEX, including a reference to Mark Cuban’s recent loss of money in a DeFi “rug pull.” With an expert witness lineup, including Jim Cramer of “Mad Money,” Alexis Goldstein of the Open Markets Institute and Peter Van Valkenburgh of CoinCenter, there is quite a mixed set of viewpoints on the current state and future of crypto.

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Highlights from today’s Breakdown:

• The latest legal challenges around the Bitcoin white paper 
• A barrage of institutional bitcoin news 
• What the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs has to do with the crypto markets

For those worried there was a loss of momentum around institutions entering bitcoin, fear not. Cathie Wood’s ARK is joining forces with 21 Shares to become the latest to apply to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley has bought more than 28,000 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. 

More broadly, markets have been buoyant over the last few weeks, closing at new all-time highs on Monday. This is finding its way into crypto markets, which reflects how increasingly intermingled traditional investors are becoming with crypto investors. 

Could a new COVID-19 variant negatively impact the economy’s overall momentum? If it did, what would the likely impact on bitcoin and other cryptos be?

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at https://nexo.io/ -- Enjoying this content?   SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple:  https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M=   Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW   The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

Today on the Brief:

• Indian investment in crypto soars
• The first Mexican bank to accept bitcoin? 
• Tether FUD from the FED? 

In our main discussion, NLW looks at recent regulatory action from the U.K., Canada and Japan. He argues that we’re entering a new phase of global regulation, where we’re likely to see a particular focus on leverage and derivatives.

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at https://nexo.io/ -- Enjoying this content?   SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple:  https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M=   Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW   The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com

On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads Nic Carter’s latest essay for CoinDesk “Go West, Bitcoin! Unpacking the Great Hashrate Migration.”

-- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at https://nexo.io/ -- Enjoying this content?   SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple:  https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M=   Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW   The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com