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By Newstalk ZB
3.9
1212 ratings
The podcast currently has 18,585 episodes available.
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Is this the week the tide turned for the Labour Party and their chances of Government slipped away? It's indisputably true to say it hasn’t been their week, or even a good week. Some of the stuff that’s been bubbling for a while came to a, sort-of, head. The lack of policy, the waiting for this magical PREFU, which allegedly contains Lord-knows-what by way of fiscal revelation, that will somehow make billions upon billions of dollars in promises make some sort of sense. Are people who could vote Labour tired of waiting? Uninspired by the lack of vigour? Or just realising that the economy is coming back and the recovery is real, so some of the angst that drove them away from the Government is now melting? Are Labour not radical enough, so the Greens get a look in? Are people scared of the Greens and even more scared of the Māori Party, so the realisation has dawned on them that Labour can't do deals with mad people, so maybe the Government aren't that bad after all? Does the first meeting of the campaign for their leader, which involved 100 people and a cat, display the lack of enthusiasm, not just from Labour, but from their supporters who are channelling the lacklustre approach of their party? It's important to remember that of all the polling so far this year, the vast majority have never actually had Labour winning the election. But it did have them in front of National, which has given the media enough to feed on. But even that, in the past two polls, has slipped away and what was once the 'Luxon nightmare' is now the 'Hipkins drama'. "Is he the right guy?" Or is the ghost of 2023 back? As more people focus on their vote and what's happening around them, do the memories of the lockdowns, the fiscal failures, the kids not at school and the crime waves remind them that Hipkins, Sepuloni, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verral, et al are the same people? They haven't changed and the party hasn’t changed. Do the memories of the endless working groups come flooding back? And does the laziness of that period look a lot like the laziness of this period of minimal policy, of lack of vigour, of a lackadaisical Government bagging sound bite obsession? Does it remind us these guys work office hours and are out of original thought? It ain't over. But man, they look flat. And Hipkins looks flatter than most. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The 5% first home buyers policy: 8/10 Small house deposits for first-timers is the policy of the week. In fact, it's the policy of the campaign so far. It's easy, practical, and solves an issue important to voters. Michelin: 7/10 Possibly the most encouraging story of the week. The Michelin effect is real, it's ongoing, and the good operators can prove it. Chris Hipkins: 4/10 Worst week in a long time. A second bad poll and growing questions around the campaign, or lack of it, and his personal ability to look like he's actually interested. Trump: 2/10 Is making stuff up about 9/11 a new low? When does exaggeration and bombast wander into the territory of insult and plain BS? The Warriors: 9/10 Rounded it out with yet more victory. Home advantage, a week off and, potentially, it's all a dream coming true. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. Cars: 7/10 New car sales are up 20%. If that isn't a sign of confidence, I don’t know what is. The excise debate: 3/10 Fantastically disappointing. Labour at $4.6 billion is sad, but not surprising. The Government at $1.6 billion and borrowing. Come on, we wanted, needed, and expected better. The bond markets: 4/10 It's why we shouldn’t have done the excise business. Money is expensive and getting more so, and no one seems to see debt for what it is – a big fat red flag. Aeroplane gate: 4/10 Honestly, the coolest flyover ever until the wowsers got hold of it. And the wowsers don’t even know how to fly a plane. Less booze: 6/10 I think it’s the future. The numbers are down and they will never recover. Between health, fitness, and GLP-1s, the world is different. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I'm not surprised. But because I'm not surprised, I am disappointed. Papers released publicly for the first time reveal the Government considered axing their mad carbon auctions. But, and here comes the disappointment, they didn’t. They considered dropping them because every time they mucked with the ETS, the confidence in a market they were trying to create was cratered. This is not just them, but the previous Government also, who were wedded to the idea that an invented market could work, despite the fact it didn’t. Multiple Governments have tinkered and fiddled. They have set prices and reset prices, but each and every auction has basically been a failure. Just quickly, if you don’t follow this stuff, there are four auctions a year. You buy credits, if you're a polluter, to offset your environmental damage. The trouble is no one turns up; there are no bids and the really bad thing about that is there is no revenue. If this actually worked there could be $2 billion worth of income. I can't remember how many times I've asked Governments about this, from Robertson to Watts. They all said the same thing, all defended it, and yet the irrefutable proof was, and is, they simply don’t work. Credits can be bought and sold in a variety of ways. You can plant trees, you can trade other people credits, but when you are literally dealing with an idea that is invented out of thin air and you have no faith in anyway, why on Earth would you turn up and pay the Government money? Obviously, the answer is you wouldn’t, and you didn’t. Hence the Government got to the inevitable bit where someone other than me asked "do you reckon this thing is worth sticking with?" Under Labour I was not surprised they didn’t kill them because that’s what ideology does to you. It blinds you to logic and common sense. But the current lot you would have hoped knew better. Well, as the papers show, they almost did and yet couldn't quite get there. So at the next auction, which by the way is September 8th, have a look and see what happens and call me if the answer is anything other than... nothing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here is a stereotype we have to break, especially given the solution is now available. There was a young woman in her 20s, in the beauty industry, training as a nurse and will go into the private sector. She has a plan and good on her. As part of this particular conversation though, she says she can never see herself owning a house. Of our five kids, one or possibly two, I suspect they feel the same, and yet the National Party's 5% deposit announcement made over the weekend changes all of that. Of all the policy released so far from any party, this is by far the most consequential. There is no Government-owned supermarket, they won't be breaking up gentailers, or buying BNZ back. This campaign has been full of fanciful nonsense. But the 5% is not only real, it's doable. It's so doable it looks likely the Labour Party will copy it and, above all else, it's the most important thing a policy can be – practical. 5% of a $700,000 house is $35,000. For most young people they can see that. 20% of that house is $140,000. That’s not real. At last, the biggest issue around housing is solved. It used to be solved, and we used to do this routinely, until we ballsed it up in yet another example of taking a problem that never existed and messing it about. 20% was never needed. The only thing preventing 5% deposits was Adrian Orr and the Reserve Bank and an unhealthy fear of carnage. Even if you end up for a period in a flat market, as we have now with negative equity, it will pass. It always does. Even if housing in New Zealand never grows at 10% a year ever again, it will grow. And what I know, as sure as night follows day, is we love houses. We dream of owning our own place. That is the constant in this whole mad debate that too many people have made too complicated. Banks should never have been dictated to by the central bank because retail banks know what they're doing. Between a government-insured scheme and KiwiSaver and retail banks, there should never have been a hurdle as large as it was. There should never have been a generation for whom owning a piece of their country was seemingly beyond them. The 5% policy sorts it. The trick now is to get that message out to people like the trainee nurse, who still don’t know how close they might be. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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