The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Just over a year since the first known US Covid-19 death, more than 500,000 people will have died from the disease by the end of this week.
"It's something that is historic. It's nothing like we've ever been though in the last 102 years since the 1918 influenza pandemic," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It really is a terrible situation that we've been through and that we're still going through. And that's the reason why we keep insisting to continue with the public health measures -- because we don't want this to get much worse than it already is."
More than 497,600 people have died from Covid-19 in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University.
And another 91,000 Americans are projected to die from the disease by June 1, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Decreases in new Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations in recent weeks have prompted some state and local leaders to loosen restrictions.
But as new coronavirus variants spread, health experts say it's critical to double down on safety measures to prevent yet another catastrophic surge.
"The most uncertain driver of the trajectory of the epidemic over the next four months is how individuals will respond to steady declines in daily cases and deaths," the IHME team wrote.
"More rapid increases in mobility or reductions in mask use can easily lead to increasing cases and deaths in many states in April."
'Rapid growth' of the B.1.1.7 strain expected
Several new concerning variants of coronavirus have been found in the US, including the highly contagious B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK.
The IHME team said the B.1.1.7 strain likely accounts for less than 20% of coronavirus infections now, but could jump to 80% by late April.
And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has projected a "rapid growth" of the B.1.1.7 strain across the US, saying it will likely become the predominant variant in the country by March.
The good news: Americans can fend off the B.1.1.7 strain (and other variants) by wearing masks, keeping their distance from others, and getting vaccinated once they're able to.
Lab studies suggest vaccines can protect against coronavirus variants. And health experts say vaccinations help prevent the virus from mutating further.
Rapid, widespread vaccinations are important to stay ahead of "the inevitable evolution of variants that could dangerously accelerate the trajectory of the pandemic," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky co-wrote in the medical journal JAMA.
The troubling B.1.351 strain has spread to New York
Another disturbing variant, the B.1.351 strain first found in South Africa, has now been detected in a Nassau County resident, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday.
The CDC says at least 10 states have reported cases of the B.1.351 strain, which has worried scientists because it has a mutation that might affect the efficacy of current vaccines.
In lab studies testing the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, researchers did find reduced antibody responses to viruses genetically engineered to look like the B.1.351 variant. Despite those reductions, experts say they believe the vaccines still likely offer good protection against this strain.
"We don't believe the South African variant is more deadly, but it may be more contagious," Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said after the B.1.351 strain was found from a New York resident.
And "with the discovery of a case of the South African variant in the state, it's more important than ever for New Yorkers to stay vigilant, wear masks, wash hands and stay socially distanced," Gov. Cuomo said.
"We are in a race right now -- between our ability to vaccinate and these variants which are actively trying to proliferate. And we will only win that race if we stay smart and...

Radio presenter Simon Barnett still gets shaky thinking about the Christchurch earthquake.
Ten years have passed, but watching the quake throw their washing machine from the laundry into the hallway, still haunts him.
The Newstalk ZB host told Mike Hosking he remembers the rumbling coming up from the earth like it was yesterday.
"I've never been in the mouth with a great white shark, but when I was at home with my wife, and when it rumbled it was a sound I'll never forget.
"A haunting, haunting rumbling, and then it came up from the centre of earth - and then boom." 
Barnett says there's probably another 10 years of rebuilding to go before Christchurch becomes a world class city.
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The UK's Supreme Court ruling about the working status of Uber drivers could have major ramifications in New Zealand, an employment law expert says.
The UK's highest court has ruled that Uber drivers should not be considered outside contractors, but company staff.
The decision means drivers should be entitled to basic rights of employment.
Employment expert Max Whitehead said the Employment Court of New Zealand recently ruled against an Uber driver, who argued that he was an employee of the rideshare company.
Whitehead expects that case to be appealed following the UK decision.
"New Zealand law is based on the British system and particularly this Government we've got now, it follows the British laws and are about to introduce law that Britain has introduced in regards to contractors as well," he said.
"There is a strong possibility that the Supreme Court of New Zealand could determine that in fact these people are employees."
Whitehead said similar cases testing the employment status of Uber drivers are currently ongoing in Australia, Canada, France and the United States.
He said if the Supreme Court here follows its UK equivalent, the impact would be widespread across various professions.
"Massive, absolutely massive. Hundreds of thousands of people will be affected. A lot of people now [who] believe that contractors will then become transformed with a decision of the courts like this."
Whitehead said it would also impact the public sector, which commonly used contractors.
He said there would be a significant economic impact if the court rules in favour of drivers.
"They could challenge whoever engages them and say in fact 'I'm an employee now; can you back-pay me six years of holiday pay, can you back pay me sick leave I've had and all those entitlements, and I'm going to sue you now using employment law'."
BBC News reported Uber had made changes to its business following the UK's Supreme Court ruling.
Uber's New Zealand business has been approached for comment.
text by Anan Zaki of RNZ

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Monday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Rebuild Needs to Pick Up the Pace/Still Not Enough Workers/PC Gone Mad/Adrenaline Radio/That's What I Call Home Delivery

Making Matariki a public holiday could cost New Zealand businesses up to $448 million - double previous forecasts, according to officials.
It's the first time the Government has revealed the potential cost of adding a 12th public holiday to the calendar despite receiving the advice last term.
Last year the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment calculated the impact on 534,930 businesses giving their staff an extra day off to be between $377m and $448m - or between 0.35 and 0.42 per cent of 2019's wage bill of $107 billion.
That figure is double the $200m the Employers and Manufacturers Association (EMA) forecast when Labour made its Matariki election promise in September.
The estimates were included in a response from Workplace Relations Minister Michael Wood to a Parliamentary written question from the Act Party.
Wood said the MBIE advice hadn't been published before now because the Government was preparing a full cost-to-benefit analysis for when legislation is tabled in the next few months.
That analysis would reflect the current climate and also factor in potential benefits like increased retail and tourism spending, productivity gains arising from an extra rest day and the cultural impact of recognising the indigenous culture of Te Ao Māori.
The legislation will go through a full select committee process before being implemented ahead of the first day off on June 24 next year.
Wood ruled out swapping out another public holiday and said he would not be seeking advice on doing so.
"We're following through on the commitment we made at the election which was to add an additional public holiday.
"In reality if we followed through on Act's world view we probably wouldn't have any public holidays. Work is important but there's more to life than just work and we actually need a decent number of public holidays to enable people to have a good sense of wellbeing."
Act leader David Seymour said the $440m estimate showed Labour was being reckless with "the country's ability to pay its way".
Instead he wanted the Government should swap-out Matariki for a different public holiday.
"It's a shame, but as a nation we simply can't afford to add more holidays.
"One of Jacinda Ardern's arguments for the extra holiday – that New Zealand has fewer public holidays many members of the OECD – doesn't wash," said Seymour.
"We might have slightly fewer holidays than the average, but we rank behind most OECD countries for productivity. Another holiday won't improve that.
"Anyway, at the rate this Government is piling fresh costs on to business, New Zealand won't deserve to be in the OECD."
Economist Brad Olsen said the Government should have requested advice on substituting Matariki for another public holiday given the other added costs of increased sick leave and minimum wage hikes.
"There should have at least been an option on the table."
He expected most businesses would be able to shoulder the extra public holiday but as the cumulative effect of the regulatory changes ate into profit margins, New Zealanders could start to see the costs passed onto them.
But there was international evidence giving workers an extra day of rest actually bolstered productivity - especially during the middle the year which is starved of holidays, Olsen said.
"From a business point of view they will be wanting to ask some pretty tough questions over the Government's decision-making given that there are at the moment a lot of cost-pressures being put on to businesses."
The Prime Minister announced at Waitangi this year that the first day off for Matariki would be on June 24 next year.
Matariki – sometimes referred to as Māori New Year – marks the rising of the cluster of stars known as the Pleiades. It usually rises in late May or early June. In Māori tradition it is seen as a time of renewal.
text by Amelia Wade, NZ Herald

It was horrendous on the ground.
That memory from the Prime Minister of the day, Sir John Key, when Christchurch was hit by a 6.2 earthquake in 2011.
The event claimed 185 lives, and seriously injured scores more.
Key had flown to the city immediately, describing conditions as horrendous.
Ten years ago, he told Mike Hosking we may well be witnessing New Zealand's darkest day.
And he spoke to Hosking again today - saying the darkest day comment was from the heart, given the speed at which things were happening.
Ten years on, the former Prime Minister has few regrets with the way the Government reacted to helping a torn city, and its part in a $50 billion dollar rebuild
Key told Mike Hosking it would have taken weeks to get through official channels to introduce a wage subsidy scheme.
"In doing that, I think that very short term decision actually t saved the future of Christchurch, because what it effectively diod was it meant there was hope for these people that they could keep their businesses going."
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Valentine's Day 2021 in New Zealand was not an occasion of love - rather, the announcement of new community cases and a return to lockdown turned it into a relatively sombre evening.
However, Mike Hosking and Kate Hawkesby managed to make the most of their day - until, as Kate revealed on Wrapping the Week this morning, Mike broke their rules around buying presents. 
"How did you celebrate a celebration of love? You fought with each other. This is so you guys!" fellow panellist Tim Wilson added. 
The panel also got stuck into Facebook and social media in the wake of Australian news ban, the shocking decline in the birth rate, and what Tim's son thinks Mike should give up for Lent.
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At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
This Week's Lockdown: 2/10
"Should we be locking down for three cases?  Not if we had a proper track and trace system. 
"And will we ever know the source? No. 
"Given that makes it Americold 2.0, how do we know what to tighten up?" 
What to Tighten Up: 7/10
"More good ideas this week. 
"Bio bubbles for border workers, more testing for border workers, tighter rules when border workers don’t turn up to work on testing day, MIQ facilities not in the downtown area of the biggest city. 
"None of this is revolutionary nor hard, it just needs adults in charge with an actual plan." 
Vaccine Rollout: 7/10
"We are underway. It was an over-deliver for the government. 
"And as Britain and Israel have shown, vaccines aren't the magic bullet, but they're a hell of a help." 
Jacinda Ardern v Scott Morrison over Suhayra Aden: 7/10
"Well, for Morrison. 
"The citizenship law was there, why? Because they'd thought about it, had a plan, and Morrison puts his country first." 
Google: 8/10
"Well, in Australia anyway. Paying media for content is on the right side of history. 
'It's another Morrison victory and, at least, the new deals make up for the dummy spit when they threatened to pack up and go home." 
Facebook: 2/10
"The exact opposite of Google in Australia. 
"Good news, and I can tell you from personal experience, is there are a heap of places to get your news that don’t involve Facebook." 
Wellington's Island Bay Cycleway: 0/10
"Five years on, $2 million to build, and $14 million to fix. 
"You can't beat Wellington a good day..." 
The Rain: 9/10
"A lot of the country got big rain this week, some of it really needed it.
#droughtisntastorythisyear." 
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW

If Westpac are right, the economic carnage that so many have been predicting is on its way.
As much as we have enjoyed the so-called bounce-back, it was never real, and it was never going to last. The economy got crushed in level four. The fall was gargantuan, but the upside is once we got out, we went nuts, and certain businesses reaped huge rewards.
If you sold cushions, paint, cars, art, or electronics you were quids in. The company results that have flowed through all tell the story.
But an economy is a complex thing, and as much as we enjoyed watching the dairy prices rise, and the farmers do well, you can't hide from the fact that this country does a couple of major things: farming and tourism.
The latter got smashed. No matter how many times we went to the Bay of Islands, the Bay of Plenty, or Central Otago. We never were going to fill the Chinese, American, and Australian gap. Either in numbers, or in dollars.
That is why reality is about to hit.
The clues were there last month. January was far from flash.
The last GDP number we got was for the third quarter of last year. It was stonking, it was peak shopping, and we went crazy. The fourth quarter will be interesting, that's October, November and December. It's out next month and should have some life left in it. But it will be nothing like Q3.
This is where Westpac come in. January, February and March, this year's first quarter is trouble. It's the lost summer of tourism. They then claim April, May, and June this year will be bad as well.
We will go backwards for two quarters, a recession. We had a recession last year, but that was obvious as the country was closed for a good chunk of it.
It was a mess. But is it still a mess? Do we think it's a mess now? Are we in the middle of a mess? What happened to all the good news headlines and we are the envy of the world?
The reality is this is the result of your health only approach. If health is all you're interested in, you pay the price elsewhere. We will be paying the price in the economy, again.
A double dip recession is a failure. It’s a failure of balance. Good governance is about balance, we have failed to juggle more than one ball.
Remember part of what has made the so-called economic damage palatable is debt. The government has filled the gap by borrowing, but that money needs paying back.
It's normally paid back by growth. In a recession there is no growth, there is less than no growth, so you borrow again. You see the pattern.
Forecasts, of course, have been wrong before. Wildly wrong. Given what these latest ones are saying, the tragedy, and the only hope is that they're wrong again, otherwise we are in a world of pain.

Former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins has declared the Morrison Government has “questions to answer” over its conduct in relation to an alleged rape and urged the Prime Minister not to engage in victim-blaming rhetoric.
The former young Liberal staffer alleged this week that she had been raped by a colleague in Defence Minister Linda Reynolds’s office in March 2019, and that the then-24-year-old felt forced to choose between her “dream job” and taking the matter to police.
Ms Higgins later moved to the office of Employment Minister Michaelia Cash’s office, with Ms Cash’s office claiming it only recently found out the specifics of the alleged rape, news.com.au reports.
Despite several meetings over this and how to handle it, Senator Cash says she never knew it was a sexual assault until recently.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has since offered her a personal apology for the way the matter was handled and announced a review of workplace culture, telling MPs in the party room they all had a responsibility to do better.
Ms Higgins issued a new statement today after questions emerged over her own account of contact from staffers working in the Prime Minister’s office and differing recollections of what occurred.
Ms Higgins said today that it was time the Government was held to account.
“The continued victim-blaming rhetoric by the Prime Minister is personally very distressing to me and countless other survivors,’’ she said.
“The Government has questions to answer for their own conduct.”
Ms Higgins said she was also shocked to learn new details of the night in question from media reporting.
News.com.au revealed this week that security guards working in Parliament said they had to unlock the door for the man that brought Ms Higgins to the Defence Industry Minister’s office on the night in question.
They returned to the office to check on her welfare after the man left and there was no sign of her, only to find her half naked and disorientated.
“I have only been made aware of key elements of my own sexual assault as a result of coming forward publicly with my story,’’ she said.
“I didn’t know that security guards let me into Minister Reynolds suite. I didn’t know that a security guard came into the office multiple times seeing me in a state of undress.
“I didn’t know they were undertaking an internal review into how the matter was handled at the time. I didn’t know that they debated calling an ambulance at the time of the incident.”
In the Senate, her former boss Employment Minister Michaelia Cash delivered an emotional speech describing Ms Higgins as a “valued employee”.
She revealed the detailed steps she took when she learned that a potential sexual assault was involved including urging Ms Higgins to go straight to the police.
Defence Minister Linda Reynolds remained under pressure but insisted she had done her best.
“Like everybody in this building, I stand, I still stand, ready to assist Brittany in any way that I can, and this begins and ends by allowing Brittany to guide this process, respecting her privacy and respecting the integrity of what is now a police investigation. She has indicated that she intends to pursue her complaint with the Australian Federal Police, and all of these matters go to the heart of that inquiry,’’ Senator Reynolds said.
text by Samantha Maiden, news.com.au