The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Wellington's mayor is introducing the most challenging budget he's ever seen, with the proposition of a 14 per cent rates increase for the city.
The capital is facing myriad cost pressures including ageing water pipes, insurance hikes, seismic issues, transport plans and its social housing portfolio.
They come on top of the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.
But arguably one of the most high profile and pressing issues is the city's water woes.
Today it has been revealed $2.7 billion has been set aside in the council's budget over the next 10 years for water infrastructure.
Draft Long Term Plan documents will be made public tomorrow, but Mayor Andy Foster has signalled what can be expected in what he says is a resilience and infrastructure budget.
"This is by far the most challenging budget that I have ever seen, and I've seen a few."
The themes underpinning the budget are making every dollar work, finishing work the council has started, such as the convention centre, and focusing on critical and core infrastructure priorities.
Rates increase
The Herald earlier revealed councillors were facing a 23 per cent rates increase as a starting point.
The proposed rates increase for the incoming year is now 14 per cent and could be reduced even further, Foster said.
"Twenty-three was clearly the highest starting point we've ever had."
But the public will also be presented with a 17 per cent increase option, which would increase the council's level of debt repayment.
The cost of Covid-19 to the council includes the loss of user charges revenue and Wellington International Airport Ltd dividends, which will take years to recover.
The council has a borrowing to income ratio of 175 per cent, and it's being recommended that gets pushed up to 225 per cent, Foster said.
"The reason we're keeping it at 225 per cent and not going higher is we need to keep some headroom if something goes wrong, like a major unexpected event like an earthquake."
Foster said it was clear this was going to be a tough year and future rates increases were forecast to be well below 14 per cent.
"We're walking a tightrope between the community's ability to afford rates, that is challenging for me, it's not a comfortable place at 14 per cent, but also the need to invest in critical infrastructure, which the community has been calling out very loudly for."
Asked whether his councillors were on board with what was being proposed Foster said: "Our council is a broad church, there will be different people to whom different things matter but we've got a pretty clear focus. I think people are coming to the realisation that this is a particularly tough environment."

Trimming the fat
About 4 per cent has been shaved off the proposed rates increase from efficiency savings within the council, Foster said.
Its revenue recovery is also slightly better than first thought when a 23 per cent rates increase was being floated.
Some projects are also set to be deferred such as work on the Opera House, Foster said.
The mayor is also keen look at whether the council needs to diversify its asset portfolio, which is mainly ground leases and the airport.
Water
Foster said the council is proposing to spend about $2.7 billion on water infrastructure capital and operating expenditure over the next 10 years.
More details will be revealed tomorrow about how that sum is allocated.

There's consensus around the council table that serious investment is needed to turn around the city's water woes.
"There has been underinvestment in our pipe network since the pipes were put in the ground," Foster said.
Included in the overall investment is $40 million for two new pipes in Wellington's CBD and other improvements so wastewater can be diverted if existing pipes break.
Civic Square
Wellington City Council has already agreed to...

Authorities have held late-night crisis talks over the worsening UK mutant strain outbreak in Melbourne, planning for a possible lockdown in days.
There are fears that Melbourne is on the brink of its third lockdown this morning as a cluster of cases linked to Victoria's hotel quarantine system grows to 13.
It is understood that state government advisers overnight met to draw up a framework for another lockdown, which could be introduced as early as Friday night, or possibly within days.
Authorities are not only concerned about the growing Holiday Inn cluster, but they are also understood to have worried about virus fragments detected in wastewater across Melbourne.
A source close to Emergency Management Victoria told the Herald Sun authorities feared they had lost control of the outbreak — describing scenes of "pandemonium" at the agency.
They told the newspaper there were deep concerns at the failure of contact tracers to match information they had been given by confirmed cases and their close contacts with what the results of sewage testing was showing about the virus' spread.
Officials are working with the theory that all of the cases linked to the Holiday Inn outbreak are UK strain cases — meaning it could spread a lot more quickly than the strain that took hold of Victoria last year.
In response, the Herald Sun reports Victorian health authorities are weighing up a snap lockdown, much like the five-day shutdown in Perth at the beginning of the month.
In Western Australia, residents were only allowed to leave home for an hour to exercise with a mask within 5km, or if they were an essential worker, needed groceries or medical supplies, were receiving healthcare or were supporting someone with needs.
Schools, gyms and cinemas were also shut, while restaurants and cafes could only serve takeaway.
Under those rules, crowds would also be banned from the Australian Open.
Clinical epidemiologist, Professor Nancy Baxter, appeared to back the idea of another lockdown in the city this morning — after two more people linked to the Holiday Inn coronavirus outbreak in Melbourne tested positive for coronavirus overnight and more exposure sites were listed.
"What I am concerned about is as the sites of the at-risk sites grow and grow, there is the potential there has been some kind of spread outside of that group of close contacts that is already in quarantine," she told Today this morning.
"It could be a week or more before we know it. And so then there is that opportunity for spread throughout the community, under our very noses.
"I think if there is a time to really get this under control the time probably is now. So it is a very tough decision and, you know, if there is not any further community spread it always looks like this was out of proportion, but I must say you can't prove prevention.
"So I think this is something that the Victorian government needs to be thinking about very hard today in terms of whether the best thing for us is to go into lockdown so we don't have a third wave in Victoria."
Both of the latest Covid-19 cases linked to the Holiday Inn cluster are household primary close contacts of previously announced infections.
It brings the total outbreak to 13, with six of the cases already confirmed by genomic sequencing as having the UK's highly contagious B117 strain.
Victoria Health also added Brunetti at Melbourne Airport's Terminal 4 to the list of Tier 1 exposure sites overnight. Anyone who visited the cafe between 4.45am and 1.15pm on Tuesday February 9 must get tested and remain isolated for 14 days.
Earlier, a staff member at the Holiday Inn in Tullamarine became the latest infection linked to the cluster. Victoria's deputy secretary of community engagement and testing Commander Jeroen Weimar said at that point that it was a "working assumption" that all cases associated with the hotel cluster were of the UK...

All you need to know ahead of the Prada Cup final between Luna Rossa and Ineos Team UK:
Racing in the America's Cup challenger final will begin Saturday between Luna Rossa and Ineos Team UK, teams with a recent history of antagonism and a shared desire to guide the future of the historic sailing event.
Bad blood exists between the teams after Italy's Luna Rossa successfully protested against the British team's use of a sail control system early in the regatta, which was found to be outside competition rules.
Luna Rossa's protest cost Team UK $5,000 and means that the British team enters the first-to-seven-win Prada Cup final effectively with one strike against it. A second rule breach likely will result in the team being disqualified from a race — a costly penalty in a 13-race series.
British skipper Ben Ainslie has condemned the Italian complaint as "churlish", adding "I don't think that's how the game should be played". Team UK's fear is that Luna Rossa could use a scattergun approach, launching a flurry of technical complaints in the hope of scoring a hit that could lead to a disqualification.
"That is the game and we will go into the Prada Cup final with our eyes wide open as to some of the tactics," Ainslie said.
Ainslie said Team UK will take extra pains and work closely with the measurement committee to ensure its race boat Britannia is fully compliant.
Luna Rossa has had its own technical issues and setbacks. It has devised a way to race without a backstay — the system that tensions the rig — which gives it an aerodynamic advantage. But the measurement committee also has found that system non-compliant.
When questioned about their complaints against the British team, Luna Rossa's helsmen Francesco Bruni and Jimmy Spithill mostly have shrugged and sought to minimize the issue. But the Italian team has taken a hard-nosed approach which likely will continue through the challenger final.
Ineos Team UK in action against Luna Rossa. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Team UK and Luna Rossa also are in competition to have some control over the next America's Cup. Luna Rossa has served as Challenger of Record under Cup-holder Team New Zealand which allows them to jointly determine the rules of the regatta and the type of boats that are used.
Team New Zealand reportedly intends to make Team UK the Challenger of Record if it successfully defends the Cup in March, in part because the British team shares its preference for the foiling monohulls in which the current regatta is being sailed.
On the water, Team UK and Luna Rossa seem closely matched. Team UK recovered from a faltering performance in the America's Cup World Series before Christmas to dominate the Prada Cup round-robin and earn a direct path to the final.
Luna Rossa had mixed form in the round-robin series, losing to the British team, but made substantial improvements in the semifinal in which it beat American Magic 4-0.
Spithill said Luna Rossa benefited from the semifinal racing.
"We've been fortunate enough to be racing and I believe we needed that series," Spithill said. "I actually think it was an advantage because we are a lot stronger for it.
"We've been very very candid and critical and you have to be to improve and as a unit. I think we've done that well but we know there's a lot more there and we have to keep the throttle down."
Schedule
The Prada Cup final will be a best of 13 series, with the winner moving on to challenge Team New Zealand in the America's Cup match in March. There will be two races per race day of the Prada Cup final. The racing window for each race day will be around 4pm-6pm, with the first race of each day scheduled for 4.15pm.
Feb 13: Race 1 and 2Feb 14: Race 3 and 4Feb 17: Race 5 and 6Feb 19: Race 7 and 8Feb 20: Race 9 and 10Feb 21: Race 11 and 12Feb 22: Race 13

House Democrats prosecuting Donald Trump's impeachment said Thursday the Capitol invaders believed they were acting on "the president's orders” and reflected his violent rhetoric when they stormed the building aiming to stop Congress from certifying Democrat Joe Biden's election.
The prosecutors described in stark, personal terms the horror they faced that day and showed the many public and explicit instructions Trump gave his supporters — both in the weeks before the Jan. 6 attack and at his midday rally that unleashed the mob on the Capitol. Rioters in videos, some posted to social media by themselves, talked about how they were doing it all for Trump.
“We were invited here,” said one. "Trump sent us,” said another. “He’ll be happy. We’re fighting for Trump.” Five people died.
“They truly believed that the whole intrusion was at the president’s orders,” said Rep. Diana DeGette of Colorado. “The president told them to be there.”
Prosecutors were wrapping up their two days of opening arguments on Thursday, with Trump's defense taking the floor on Friday. The entire process could wind up with a vote by this weekend. The Democrats, with little hope of conviction by two-thirds of the Senate, are making their most graphic case to the American public, while Trump's lawyers are focused on legal rather than emotional or historic questions, hoping to get it all behind him as quickly as possible.
At the White House, President Joe Biden said he believed “some minds may be changed” after senators saw chilling security video Wednesday of the deadly insurrection at the Capitol, including of rioters searching menacingly for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Mike Pence.
Biden said he didn’t watch any of the previous day’s proceedings live but later saw news coverage.
This second impeachment trial, on the charge of incitement of insurrection, has echoes of last year's impeachment over the Ukraine matter, as prosecutors warn senators that left unchecked Trump poses a danger to the civic order. Even out of office, the former president holds influence over large swaths of voters.
The prosecutors on Thursday drew a direct line from his repeated comments condoning and even celebrating violence — praising “both sides” after the 2017 outbreak at the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, and urging his rally crowd last month to go to the Capitol and fight for his presidency.
“There’s a pattern staring us in the face,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the lead prosecutor.
“When Donald Trump tells the crowd as he did on January 6 to fight like hell, or you won’t have a country anymore. He meant for them to fight like hell.”
Trump lawyers will argue later this week that his words were protected by the Constitution’s First Amendment and just a figure of speech.
Though most of the Senate jurors seem to have made up their minds, making Trump’s acquittal likely, the never-before-seen audio and video released Wednesday is now a key exhibit in Trump’s impeachment trial as lawmakers prosecuting the case argue Trump should be convicted of inciting the siege.
Senators sat riveted as the jarring video played in the chamber. Senators shook their heads, folded their arms and furrowed their brows. Screams from the audio and video filled the Senate chamber. Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma bent his head at one point, another GOP colleague putting his hand on his arm in comfort.
Videos of the siege have been circulating since the day of the riot, but the graphic compilation shown to senators Wednesday amounted to a more complete narrative, a moment-by-moment retelling of one of the nation’s most alarming days. In addition to the evident chaos and danger, it offered fresh details on the attackers, scenes of police heroism and cries of distress. And it underscored how dangerously close the rioters came to the nation’s leaders, shifting the focus of the trial...

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
Ties in Parliament.
3/10.
"Just the sort of time-wasting nonsense we need, not."
Trevor Mallard.
0/10.
"Yes, he apologised. But not when he knew, and not when he should have.
He is fatally tainted in terms of character, demeanor, and therefore as a Speaker who oversees rules and behaviour."
Labour's Defence of Mallard.
1/10.
"Because it shows them to be who they really are.
They are not about honesty or decency, they're about themselves and protecting their own."
National on Mallard.
7/10.
"They didn’t ever have the numbers, but they had the public, and they were on the right side of this.
That's what oppositions should be about."
Air New Zealand's Saudi Scandal.
3/10.
"What a hypocritical pile of tosh.
We have over a $1 billion worth of two-way business and we get all teary eyed over a couple of engines, and $3 million.
It looks like a hit job on Christopher Luxon."
Grant Robertson and Adrian Orr on Housing.
3/10.
"Grant says one thing, Adrian does another.
#nofaithinthematall."
New Super Rugby Rules.
6/10.
"The Captain's Call is good, the Golden point is good, and the goal line drop out is okay.
Overall, the game will be better for it, and it's not every rugby rule you can say that about."
Karl Budge.
8/10.
"Plenty of justified plaudits this week as he decided to move on.
They are huge loafers to fill."
Eden Park.
7/10.
"Got there in the end.
A place that holds 50,000... can host concerts.
That's a novel idea."
Our Vineyards.
8/10.
"Elephant Hill are harvesting their grapes in February.
That's the earliest ever.
Expect a bumper vintage this year."
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One of Queenstown's most intrepid operators has decided to pause operations amid an unusually quiet summer in the adventure capital.
Canyon Explorers has stopped business early, saying it would "hibernate" from Monday 15, February. The announcement comes as the Tourism Minister said that that there would be no more support for a "bleeding" international tourism sector, and indications of a "very quiet" shoulder season in Otago.
Adventure Group Limited has been leading tourists on via ferrata and adventure routes under the trading name Canyon Explorers since the 1990s.
Managing director Stefan Crawford said the decision was "a tough but necessary call."
With 95 per cent of their usual guests locked out of the country, Crawford knew it would be a difficult season but had tried to re-gear the business towards domestic adventure travellers.
However, the ongoing uncertainty over Trans-Tasman travel and projected lack of visitors to Queenstown in the coming months has forced the company to call a sudden stop to tours.
Canyon Explorers will not be taking any new guests and will only honour existing bookings through to Easter.
Crawford said his business would be "back next summer" and that guides have all been found work through the "generosity of local businesses".
However, the sudden decision to hit the brakes in the traditional peak season is unnerving.
Crawford said the company had crossed "a line in the sand" last month, when losses were no longer sustainable. Further measures of confidence such as the low room occupancy in town and the decision by airlines to reduce capacity into Queenstown forced the decision to stop operating.
He warned that restarting in 2022 would be the biggest challenge for adventure tourism with many, largely international guides leaving the profession or leaving the country.
"What we'd like to see is more clarity," said Crawford. "But being told not to expect any international tourism for the rest of the year and that a bubble with Australia was still on the way does not help."
This morning Tourism Minister Stuart Nash delivered a disheartening message to operators on the "cold, hard reality" of the pause in international travel.
"If you've got a business that is solely or predominantly reliant on overseas tourists and you haven't been able to pivot from an international base to a domestic base, then I'm afraid you're probably going to have to have some very hard conversations with your bank, your creditors, your directors and your employees," Nash told RNZ's The AM Show.
The Adventure Group was not eligible for Strategic Tourism Assets Protection Programme (STAPP) when it was offered last year.
Hibernation may not be an option for many Queenstown businesses who find themselves hit by the lack of visitors. On Monday Queenstown mayor Jim Boult told the Otago Daily Times that many businesses might not survive to enjoy the projected recovery when travel with Australia resumes.
Boult worried that Queenstown operators may not be in a position to offer anything to international visitors when travellers return.
"We won't have the people, we won't have the businesses," he said.

In this cancel culture, this viper's nest of misery and woe, driven by groupthink, and a seemingly unquenchable desire to be furious about something, I note poor old Speights are in the gun for having the temerity to sponsor the Highlanders rugby team.
Rugby, short of Silver Lake, being a silver lining is not exactly flush these days with dosh. For a game we have dominated globally for years, it is a remarkable thing we still manage to, given the state of the books.
And for anyone who is in any sport or industry where money is tight and bottom lines are hard to keep black, sponsorship is a time honoured and successful way of paying the bills and promoting a brand.
They will be called the Speights Highlanders. This is a first, but the wowsers are out . They argue Speights and its name has no place in sport. Despite the fact they’ve been associated with rugby in their part of the world for 40 years.
In that aspect alone I admire them. Longevity, consistency, and loyalty are in rare supply these days. Such is the nature of things, the here today, gone tomorrow type existence we live. To have a partnership that stands the test of time is increasingly rare, more is the pity.
I look at Emirates Team New Zealand. Not just the airline but companies like Toyota who through good and bad, brilliant and bleak, have stayed the course, written the cheques, and I assume enjoyed the ride.
Speights makes beer, yes. But beer is not the devil, the devil is the abuser of the beer, and the pisshead isn't sponsoring the team. The same way the crook driving the car is the criminal, not the manufacturer who made it.
Social issues are of our own creation but given our inability to face them and deal to them, due to a lack of self-responsibility, we look to find fault elsewhere. And the manufacturer, producer, supplier, or seller is the easy target.
Fast food, sugar, fat, speed, booze, lotto. They're all the devil, they must be banned, and blamed before they're banned. They must certainly not, participate in any activity, we deem incompatible.
Speights make a popular, legal product. It's a product that has every right to be promoted and advertised.
Rugby is a popular, legal sport that has every right to pay its way and meet its bills.
Connect the synergies and you’ve got a deal. That is the real world and I hope it’s a good four years for both of them.

The Government is defending the Flexiwage scheme, saying it's a tool to lower unemployment rates, and help people launch their own businesses.
$30 million has been ring fenced for self employment, with weekly payments of $600, and grants for personal business training and start up costs.
Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni told Mike Hosking 4000 people accessed an earlier version of the scheme last year, with good results.
She says 93 percent stayed in the job, or had left the job but were not back on benefits. 
Sepuloni says the scheme will help up to 40,000 people get jobs.
"One of the issues in the past was that the criteria was unclear, so we've tidied it up so it's more accessible for employers."
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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Friday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) You Can't Put That On Your Jersey/Mark the Week/Add To Cart/Value for Money Tourism

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr is refreshing his calls to the Government to give the bank more tools which could be used to tame the housing market.
But he has suggested that the Government's decision around giving the central bank debt-to-income (DTI) restriction powers is a political one, as it might adversely impact first home buyers.
"It comes down to a political decision around whether they [the Government] are willing, or not, to provide those tools and accept some of the challenges that may bring," Orr told media yesterday. 
His comments come as Finance Minister Grant Robertson prepares to unveil a suite of demand-side measures aimed at "tilting the balance" towards first home buyers.
Former Reserve Bank Economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking debt to income being used as a tool by the bank would clamp down on demand. 
"It would make it harder for people at large to buy houses."
Reddell warned the move could have an impact on first home buyers. 
"People who take on very high amounts of debt relative to their current income, might be judged to be at more risk of getting into trouble and losing the bank's money if things go wrong."
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