The Mike Hosking Breakfast

It honestly is of ongoing fascination to me just how our government is able to literally make it up as they go along, get caught out, spin the same BS, and not enough people seem to care.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration has approved the Pfizer vaccine for use.
Now, according to Chris Hipkins and Ashley Bloomfield, we are in lockstep with Australia. We don't have a vaccine at all yet because we are waiting for Medsafe, our authority, to clear it here.
They are doing this under their usual procedure, although we are assured at a cracking sort of pace.
The countries that are jabbing, and have been since before Christmas, cleared the vaccines under an emergency regime.
We apparently don’t need to do that, which of course is rubbish. But that’s the line the government are running, and a lot of us are seemingly prepared to swallow it.
This is the bit I struggle with.
The government, once again, are full of it. We are not in lock step with Australia. Why? Because their jabbing starts before ours. Their first vaccinations will take place next month, will ours?
No. So, we aren't in lockstep, are we? And the TGA has done what Medsafe haven't.  So, are we in lockstep? No. So why are they saying we are?
Given we aren't, and even if Medsafe clear the vaccine this morning, where is the vaccine? Not here.
So, were we really waiting for Medsafe? No, we weren't. Was there really ever any chance that Medsafe would be the only medical authority in the whole world so far to go, "hold on, we aren't clearing this, this doesn’t look safe"?
No, there wasn't. So, why the spin? Why the endless, made up excuses?
It's already Groundhog Day this week. Yet more queues for testing, yet more fear in a community as they wait for test results, yet another slip up at the border. And despite all that, no recognition that MIQ is slack, that MIQ needs tightening, still no listening to the experts saying stop the flights, or to have isolation post MIQ, no desire for urgency, no desire to fix obvious and ongoing weaknesses.
It's just the same old crap, covering the same old butts, and making the same old mistakes.
Our complacency will be the undoing of us. Even though the government are hopeless, why are we even more hopeless by not demanding better?

Trust - but not toughness - could be key to getting more Kiwis to scan in when visiting their local pubs and cafes, new research suggests.
While the latest community case of Covid-19 has prompted a reported surge in people using the NZ Covid Tracer app, uptake and usage of the vital tool has been otherwise woeful.
On Saturday - a day before news of the new case broke - some 286,646 people scanned at least one QR code poster, despite there being more than two million registered users.
Now, in a just-published collaborative study, University of Otago researchers have pinpointed what could be the key for restaurants, cafes, and bars to encourage customer uptake.
"Appealing to customers' brains rather than their hearts can increase the effectiveness of contact tracing as people are more likely to participate," study co-author Dr Raymond Xia said.
"Essentially – if a customer is confident in the establishment and their contact tracing system, they are more likely to provide their details.
"In establishments where there is scepticism over the establishment or the contact tracing system, then buy-in decreases."
With contact tracing systems being critical in limiting any potential community spread of Covid-19, their effectiveness was diminished if people were reluctant to use them.
Xia, a specialist in marketing, consumer behaviour and methodology, said venues needed to be careful with using "relationship tactics" to acquire personal information.
"Instead, venues need to demonstrate professionalism, competence, and reliability through a good data protection policy, strong data collection ethics, and by gaining popularity," he said.
"Customers are more likely to participate if they see venues show genuine concern for public safety, rather than profit."
He said this could be done through clear and concise signage that used language such as "let's all beat the virus together", rather than "you must sign in or you will not be served".
The study also explored how the Government could encourage people to co-operate with contact tracing at hospitality venues through strong data protection policy and regulation.
Its findings showed people felt safer to disclose truthful information for contact tracing if they had faith in their government's policies and practices.
Experts have renewed calls for Kiwis to be vigilant about using the NZ Covid Tracer app, and follow the example set by the latest case herself.
"What we have to remember, is that we should be doing everything we can to make the contact tracing team's job easier," University of Auckland infectious diseases expert Professor Siouxsie Wiles said.
"We can do that by making a habit of using the Covid Tracer App and having Bluetooth turned on. Can you remember everywhere you have been over the last 10 days, and when?
"I know I can't, which is why I've got myself trained to use the app wherever I go."
Wiles said she'd like to see all businesses helping to make QR code scanning easier by reminding people to scan as they paid for good and services - and putting the QR codes up several different places around their premises.
"This is a habit we will need for the next year, so let's develop it now rather than just scanning when we hear of a case outside of MIQ."
Data expert Dr Andrew Chen noted how all modelling suggested time-to-isolation was the strongest factor in keeping an outbreak under control.
"But we should also remember that the app is only one layer of defence in our response to Covid-19," said Chen, a researcher at University of Auckland-based Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures.
"If you are showing symptoms, get a test and don't go to work.
"If you have no symptoms, wash your hands, wear a mask when you can, and keep records of where you have been and who you have been near, preferably with NZ Covid Tracer and Bluetooth Tracing."

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Not Many Answers Though/What Now for Trump/Jumping the Vaccine Queue/Getting the Band Back Together

A man who passed through a managed isolation hotel last month was surprised to find just-arrived groups were able to mix with soon-to-depart travellers.
The Dubai-based businessman, who asked not to be named, contacted the Herald in light of a fresh border breach that's prompted an urgent investigation into New Zealand's managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) system.
After arriving in New Zealand on December 3, the man and his fellow passengers were sent to the Ibis Rotorua, where they had free use of the car park for walking and recreation.
While the passengers were told it was important to keep their "flight bubble" together, no allocated times were given to the group for venturing outside.
Rather, he said, NZ Defence Force personnel would issue warnings to anyone they saw walking or running close to other people.
Over the first three days, the group was mixing with others who had received their day 12 tests, and scheduled to leave.
"I understand four passengers from our flight failed the day three test and were shipped back to the Auckland Jet Park Hotel [quarantine facility]."
While passengers in the hotel were ordered to lock down each time a new flight group arrived, he said there was no requirement to stay in his room while he waited for the results of his day 12 test.
"On day 12 and 13, whilst walking around the car park, I noticed a lot of new people," he said.
"There was a chance to have been infected, but I made sure I kept my distance as much as possible."
The man said his experience pointed to several clear improvements that could be made, including allocated times for flight bubbles to exercise, and rules restricting guests to their rooms between their final test and departure.
He also saw a need for testing technology that yielded faster results.
Managed Isolation and Quarantine and Ibis Rotorua have been approached for comment about the concerns.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Shaun Hendy said any situation where departing travellers could come into contact with new arrivals should be avoided as much as possible.
"That's really quite risky. This isn't what we'd consider close contact, but it certainly wouldn't be best practice."
It comes as the Government today launched a fresh inquiry into MIQ arrangements, after it was found the latest community case - a 56-year-old Northland woman - was likely infected by a fellow returnee before leaving Auckland's Pullman Hotel.
Health Minister Chris Hipkins said, in that case, the woman had adhered to infection control guidelines in her room and in the exercise space.
Monthly audits are made on prevention measures, he said, however an urgent investigation was underway to look again in case further changes can be made.
"That will also include looking at whether returnee movement should be restricted towards the end of their stay in managed isolation after they have had their final test and before they have been released," Hipkins said.
Work was also underway on new filtration devices in the air conditioning systems in managed isolation facilities.
Earlier this month, the Herald reported bubble breaches in managed isolation and quarantine had been occurring on average at a rate of once every 36 hours.
While the breaches were considered minor, every one of them was also an avoidable risk of Covid-19 spread.
The most high-profile breaches have included visiting cricket teams from the West Indies and Pakistan, who were caught hanging out in common areas and passing things to each other.
But no penalties have been handed down, in contrast with the more serious breach of escaping from MIQ.
That has happened 10 times and involved 14 people, 10 of whom have been charged with failing to comply with an order made under the Covid-19 Public Health Response Act.
The last time was in October, when a woman escaped from the Grand Millennium Hotel in Auckland through...

I think we can all agree that Tiwai going nowhere is a good thing. But that’s not the real story - or at least it shouldn’t be.
Tiwai is a lesson in why this country in parts needs to get its act together.
The clue here is the balance of power - no pun intended.
Does Tiwai need Southland or New Zealand? No. Does Southland and/or New Zealand need Tiwai? Yes.
And in that is the clue as to why they’re not going anywhere.
The old “we are off unless you cut us a deal” game has been played before. Last time the National government of the day wrote them a cheque for $30 million and said “that’s that - don’t come back”.
They did come back, of course, last year, at which point the government, at least in part, to their credit, told them there was no more money
Or was there? In the ensuing months, through the usual nashing of teeth and headline concern around jobs and economic impact on a small region in election year. We finally wound our way to a deal.
The deal was with Meridian, their energy supplier. Meridian had, of course, already offered them a deal that was turned down. So obviously the deal that got cut was an improvement on the original offers.
Some market analysts suggest its 36 per cent. Imagine if you could trim 36 per cent off your power bill.
Meridian, it’s important to note, is government owned. They too can’t afford for Tiwai to bail because what would they do with all that excess power.
Power that, by the way, they don’t have the infrastructure to simply fling up country to other punters
So yet again, we’ve been found wanting. A region that like all regions should be more than just a place beholden to a large company. A power company that’s beholden to its biggest client. A government that can ill afford the joblessness mess of a major regional bail out.
Rio Tinto came to the gun fight with guns - we came again with bows and arrows.
Good relationships are symbiotic; they have give and take, they have balance, they have mutual standing.
They are not, as we have seen yet again, a hostage negotiation.

Shane van Gisbergen put on an extraordinary exhibition to take out the 66th New Zealand Grand Prix — delivering a show not seen in the Toyota Racing Series since its 2005 inception.
Van Gisbergen started dead last from pit lane but took the chequered flag at the end of 28 laps from Andre Heimgartner and Matthew Payne.
Van Gisbergen didn't make it out of pit lane for the formation lap due to his fire extinguisher going off in the car. The resulting penalty meant the Supercars star had to start from pit lane.
"I went to start the car and pushed the fire extinguisher button instead," he said post-race. "There was a bit of a panic and I thought it was all over.
"I think I've gone from last to first before but never from pit lane. That was the crazy thing. Right from the first practice, I knew how good the car was and I just had to get to know what the car needed. The team was brilliant and gave me a great car.
"They are all great drivers and I just pulled a few moves where I didn't give people too much choice. I'm still speechless about how good the car was."
Heimgartner was carrying an injury to his left thumb after a coming together with Brendon Leitch during the morning's race.
"It pretty hard work out there, but I'm happy how the race worked out," he said. "We struggled early in the weekend and worked really hard to turn the car around.
"The thumb was a bit troublesome but we managed to battle through for a good result."
The find of the weekend, Matthew Payne, rounded out the top three. He has driven a single seater only twice before (Formula Ford) and is a rookie in a TRS car. He was on the pace from the start.
"That race was fun, maybe not for the first half as we struggled with the tyres coming on," he said. "Once I got past the first one and then a couple more, I just got on with it. Once I got behind Andre, I just put my head down and put in qualifying laps. My team was on the radio telling me what to do; it was awesome."
Van Gisbergen may have been the star on the track but the star of the weekend was Kenny Smith.
The 79-year-old was racing his 50th NZGP and starting his 63rd consecutive motor racing season. He came into the weekend carrying a shoulder injury he was determined to get over.
"I survived. I was in a bit of pain at the end as the shoulders are buggered. The car's a bit heavy for me, so I decided to dial back and make sure I got to the end. I'm not happy being so much off the pace, though.
"Wasn't it great to see Shane? I wouldn't have thought he'd have made it to the front though. If you'd had internationals here, they would not have beaten him today."
text by Eric Thompson, NZ Herald

February 11th is a big day, with big change coming if you are a landlord.
The hype is flying. The biggest reforms in 35 years, claim headlines. Houses to be emptied as landlords bail, suggest others.
Here's what I know: the harder you make it to do something, the less likely people are to do it. There is no question that being a landlord under the new rules about to come into to force will be harder, or at least more expensive.
We know this. We put air in over summer to a house. I say air, the government couches it as heat. Places have to be heated, the inference is that poor renters freeze to death among the mould, leaky walls, and windows.
In places like Auckland heat isn't really an issue, cool air is.
Anyway, there is a system in place whereby installers have been bundled together, they offer deals, and it's not a bad system.
But they all seem to agree that the government don’t have a clue about the real world. And what you're expected to do is way over the top, and as a result more expensive than it needs to be.
The air we put into a rental is bigger and more expensive than the air we put into our own home, and our own home is a much larger space. The air we put into our own home is what we needed, and not what the government told us to put in. It works, because the decision was driven by practicality, not government edict.
We also met, over the break, a couple who turned out to be landlords for 30 years. They own four properties, but they're selling. They're over it, they have seen a lot of change in three decades, but this stuff, they’ve decided, is over the top, draconian, and it simply isn't worth their while.
Now, that’s anecdotal and for now the whole "it’s the end of the world" line is nothing more than that. It may well be landlords by in large suck it up, and nothing changes. It may well be the return on property beyond rent is too good to ignore. No, you don't have tenants and air conditioning in the share market, but in housing, you don’t run the risk of a bubble bursting and a crash.
So, let's see.
But I can't help but think that most landlords are decent people, as are most tenants. And all the noise around rents and renting, as is so often the case, is driven by the exception, not the rule.

A Chinese-born alleged drug kingpin accused of presiding over a multi-billion dollar narcotics operation has been arrested by Dutch authorities.
Canadian national Tse Chi Lop was detained at Amsterdam's Schipol International Airport on Friday, according to Australian Federal Police (AFP), which has taken the lead in a sprawling international investigation. Before his arrest, Tse was one of the world's most-wanted fugitives.
Authorities allege that Tse, 57, is the leader of the Sam Gor Syndicate, arguably the biggest drug-trafficking operation in Asia's history. Experts say he is in the same league as notorious drug lords El Chapo and Pablo Escobar.
"The importance of Tse's arrest can not be underestimated. It's big and (has) been a long time coming," said Jeremy Douglas, the Regional Representative of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
Asia's methamphetamine trade is believed to be worth between $30 billion and $61 billion a year, and Sam Gor, which is sometimes simply referred to as "the Company," is allegedly its biggest player.
The organization is accused of running a synthetic drug manufacturing empire in large swathes of the under-policed jungles of Myanmar, a region marred by civil war and still under the control of various competing warlords and militias -- conditions that make it easy to hide industrial-scale drug manufacturing operations from law enforcement.
From there, Sam Gor has allegedly been able to procure large amounts of precursor chemicals, the ingredients to make synthetic drugs, and then move them across the region to nearby markets in Bangkok, but also to farther-flung ones in Australia and Japan, law enforcement said.
Sam Gor allegedly had operatives working throughout the globe, with players in South Korea, England, Canada and the United States, according to a briefing on the syndicate shared with CNN by an official with direct knowledge of the investigation.
The documents described Sam Gor as a "triad-like network" -- a reference to ethnic Chinese gangs that operate in Asia and North America -- but more mobile and dynamic. The group's existence was revealed in 2016 after a Taiwanese drug trafficker was arrested in Yangon, Myanmar, the briefing showed.
Further police investigations revealed that the organization was, as of 2018, earning between $8 billion and $17.7 billion worth of illicit proceeds a year, according to the briefing. The organization uses poorly regulated casinos in Southeast Asia to launder a significant portion of those proceeds.
AFP said a warrant was issued for Tse's arrest in 2019 in connection with an operation targeting Sam Gor.
"The syndicate targeted Australia over a number of years, importing and distributing large amounts of illicit narcotics, laundering the profits overseas and living off the wealth obtained from crime," AFP said in a statement.
Tse allegedly ran his multibillion dollar operation from Hong Kong, Macao and southeast Asia. But his name -- or existence -- was not public knowledge until he was revealed by a Reuters investigation published in 2019.
Dutch police spokesman Thomas Aling said Tse is expected to be extradited after appearing before a judge. Authorities in the Netherlands were unable to provide details about the legal proceedings and it was not clear whether Tse had a lawyer.
This is not Tse's first run-in with law enforcement. Tse pleaded guilty to felony narcotics charges in the United States in 2000 and was sentenced to nine years in prison. Details surrounding the case are limited because it is still sealed, but the source said he was released in 2006 and returned to Canada before moving to Hong Kong.
While Douglas of the UNODC praised Tse's arrest, he said more needed to be done to ensure drug lords cannot take advantage of poor government oversight of the areas in Myanmar and Laos.
"While taking down syndicate...

INEOS Team UK skipper Sir Ben Ainslie is irritated his team runs the risk of being disqualified from a race in the Prada Cup final for a rules infraction that isn't performance enhancing.
Luna Rossa complained about the British team's mainsail configuration ahead of the round robin racing, and the measurement committee ruled there was a breach and fined INEOS seven thousand dollars.
However it's emerged they have been placed on a yellow card and any further breach will result in a disqualification.
Ainslie plans to address the issue at a Challengers meeting this week.
Former New Zealand and World Champion sailor Mark Orams told Mike Hosking that he does not think the complaint is going to go anywhere. 
He also weighed in on why INEOS has done so well in the race so far.
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Another sign that some of the economic pain of 2020 has been dealt to.
Data from credit bureau Centrix shows the number of people wanting mortgage holidays is down to 0.6 per cent of all loans - just more than 8,000 in total.
Centrix chief executive Keith McLaughlin told Mike Hosking this is despite deferrals being taken up "aggressively" over the lockdown.
"Back in June, July, August, it was seven percent of all mortgages were on deferral, and that was 97,000 loans were on deferral. 
"That's really come right back down again."
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