The Mike Hosking Breakfast

You might have noted over the holiday period one of the flags we raised before Christmas was not to get sucked in by the government who were, once again, playing us for fools when the heat in the housing market spilled over to the political world.
The politicians got embarrassed over the fact they'd banged on endlessly about affordable housing while in opposition, but in government and had done nothing about it apart from watch the prices go up, and up, and up.
So as a pre-Christmas distraction Grant Robertson wrote to the Reserve Bank Governor and made some noise about prices, in the vein hope that we'd all think that actually meant something.
It meant nothing, of course. In fact, it meant so little Robertson, just as we headed off on holiday went to the extent of telling us they'd be doing something about house prices but not until next year, which is now this year.
Meantime Adrian Orr got hacked. On a side note, and to his credit, he did what all good leaders should do and owned it, apologised unreservedly, and said this was on him. So, refreshing was the approach, one, a lot of people could look and learn. And two, I'm almost of a mind to forgive him for showing such rare honesty and integrity.
Back to the houses, new numbers last week for December. Records, records, records. A lot of record prices, record sales, and record increases.
Only 27 days to sell a house on average, that’s another record. There's no stock, that's another record. One of the banks is offering money at barely over two percent, that's another record.
In other words, housing is doing what housing always does, getting on with it. While the noise makers do what the noise makers do, little if anything.
If the government were honest like Adrian Orr, they'd say "look there's not a lot we can do, short of forcing councils to free up more land. Consents are right up there so there's no shortage of building. We're building social houses, but that doesn't really address regular pricing so, that's about it."
That, at least, is the truth.
And never, ever forget a lot of this debate is predicated on the idea that rising house prices are bad, which, of course, they are not. We love housing. Always have, always will.
No, it can't continue the way it is, and it won't. But if you honestly thought Grant Robertson was going to do anything tangible more fool you.

A serve for the world tennis number one, from Kiwi doubles player Marcus Daniell.
He believes Novak Djokovic is out of order with his list of demands to organisers of the Australian Open.
Djokovic has sent a letter to tournament officials, demanding things such as reduced days in isolation, the ability for players to see their coach, and players moved to private houses with a tennis court to facilitate training.
Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews has made it very clear none of this will be happening.
Marcus Daniell is in the midst of a 14-day quarantine in Melbourne and told Mike Hosking he wishes there was more of a united voice across players.
He believes Djokovic has put his foot in it.
"By asking for two reasonable things, surrounded  by bunch of laughable ideas, the reasonable things don't get taken seriously. I don't think he has helped at all."
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Tourism businesses are shaking in their boots ahead of February and March.
With the holiday season coming to a close, Kiwi tourism businesses are preparing for a quiet season unlike any other.
Normally relying on international visitors to make up for the lull, some businesses are preparing for the worst.
Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts says the feeling is universal.
"It's already slowed down considerably and others can see there aren't many bookings going forward so every operator is extremely worried."
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Three people have been arrested in relation to an art heist that included a Goldie painting estimated to be worth more than $1 million.
Waikato Police last week reported the antiques burglary in Hamilton East that included a painting titled Sleep 'tis a Gentle Thing, of Ngāti Maru and Ngāti Paoa chief Hori Pokai, by New Zealand artist Charles Frederick Goldie.
Police believe it occurred in the Hamilton East area between December 27 and January 3.
On Monday, police revealed they had executed a search warrant at a Hamilton address on Saturday and recovered stolen property.
Two of the men, aged 45 and 49, appeared in the Hamilton District Court today, jointly charged with burglary.
They were both granted interim name suppression, one was granted bail while the other was remanded in custody until he can find an appropriate residence.
The man on bail entered a not guilty plea and would now reappear in court in March.
The 49-year-old accused was remanded in custody without plea until February 2, however his lawyer indicated an application for bail would likely be made prior to that date.
The third accused is set to appear after today's lunch adjournment.
Meanwhile, the Goldie painting has not been recovered.
"Police seek the public's help with any information that may lead to the recovery of this painting," a police media release said.
"If you have any information, please contact Police on 105 and quote file 210103/2961.
"Alternatively, you can contact Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111."
Goldie's most expensive piece, A Noble Relic of a Noble Race, of Ngāti Manawa chief Wharekauri Tahuna, sold for $1,337,687 at an International Art Centre auction in Auckland in 2016.
Director Richard Thomson said he'd sold another version of the stolen painting in 2008 for a then-record of $454,000.
"So that is a million-dollar-plus artwork there in today's market. I've sold dozens of Goldies, and that is a really good example of his work, has all the hallmarks.
"I am quite disturbed by [the burglary]. These are hugely significant national treasures. Owners are guardians but the nation owns them, really."
The stolen painting was likely done between 1933 and 1938, when Goldie was in his sixties.
While Goldie's earlier works tended to fetch the highest prices, Thomson said the 2016 record was painted in 1941.
Despite the high valuation, Thomson said he thought it would be "worthless" in the hands of thieves.
"There is absolutely no market for it now in the wrong hands. It is a foolish thing to do and all they will get is bad karma.
"My advice is return as quick and safe as possible."
By: Michael Neilson, NZ Herald

James Murdoch, son of Rupert, has decided he is on a slightly more woke pathway than his Dad, and has spat the dummy to the Financial Times about the media and its role in the Trump years.
The trouble with such pronouncements these days is nuance and subtlety have been lost.
On one hand he's right, the media has a lot to answer for. Not just around Trump but around honesty, integrity, balance ,experience, and professionalism. On the other hand, he's late to the party with the “come to Damascus” moment. It's not like he's an intern, and hasn’t been donkey deep for years.
Of course, given it’s a Murdoch, it's leapt on because Murdoch is Fox. And Fox, if you're woke, is the devil. Choosing to forget that places like CNN benefited from Trump as much as Fox over did.
Last year, CNN's audience in election year was up significantly, more than Fox. Fox remains number one by a reasonable margin, but the idea Trump is Fox and Fox is the only beneficiary is not only wrong, it's not even mentioned because mentioning it undermines the luvvies agenda.
Thus, reminding us of the original Murdoch complaint around the media, too much of it is fundamentally dishonest.
The other problem is it's all focused around Trump. He is the problem, the cause, and the result of everything apparently. Almost as though life didn’t start till 2016.
An article the other day asked whether Fox can survive when Trump goes. "Where now for Fox?", screamed the headline.  
Fox was here before Trump, as was CNN, jet aircraft, and electricity. The Trump years', lest we forget have actually only been four of them, not 50. Fox will be fine.
But the madness we currently see, whether it’s the banning of voices, groups, or activity online, the cancelling of certain people if they don’t meet greet and spout your world view, is exceedingly dangerous, for much broader reasons than Trump.
It's just Trump is being used as the excuse. Those who worked for Trump will never get work again. Any company associated with Trump loses business. Trump's businesses lose business.
The message is you say and do what we say and like, or you say nothing at all.
Does that not ring exceedingly large alarm bells?
And in part, the window into this world is the media. We see the world through the media. We hear the voices, the calls, and the ideas.
But if Trump is to blame for everything and Fox therefore is to blame too, and Facebook and Twitter ban the ones they don’t like, and certain sections of the media acquiesce if not embrace all this, where do we hear the voices as opposed to the voice?
And where in history have we seen all this before? And given that why aren't we deeply worried?

The U.K. government plans to offer a first dose of COVID-19 vaccine to every adult by September as the nation’s health care system battles the worst crisis in its 72-year-history.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Sunday that the government will soon begin a trial of round the clock injections at some locations as it continues to add more vaccination sites to increase the pace of delivery. The National Health Service opened a mass vaccination center on Saturday at the historic Salisbury Cathedral, where injections were accompanied by organ music.
“Our target is by September to have offered all the adult population a first dose,’’ he told Sky News. “If we can do it faster than that, great, but that’s the road map.”
Britain has more than 51 million adults in its population of 67.5 million people.
The ambitious vaccination program comes amid crushing pressures on the National Health Service. Already beleaguered hospitals are admitting another COVID-19 patient every 30 seconds, putting the service in its most precarious situation ever, said Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England.
“The facts are very clear and I’m not going to sugarcoat them, hospitals are under extreme pressure and staff are under extreme pressure,’’ he told the BBC. “Since Christmas Day we’ve seen another 15,000 increase in the in-patients in hospitals across England. That’s the equivalent of filling 30 hospitals full of coronavirus patients.”
Britain’s health care system is staggering as doctors and nurses battle a more contagious variant of the coronavirus coupled with cold, wet winter weather that drives people inside, where infections spread more easily.
The surge in infections has pushed the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 to a record 37,475, more than 73% higher than during the first peak of the pandemic in April. Britain has reported 88,747 coronavirus-related deaths, more than any other country in Europe and the fifth-highest number worldwide.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Jan. 2 ordered England into its third national lockdown in an effort to slow the spread of the virus and protect the NHS, which Stevens said now has some 50,000 employees off work due to COVID-19 infections and exposure quarantines.
The government says it won’t review the lockdown measures until mid-February, by which time it plans to offer at least one dose of vaccine to everyone over 70, as well as to frontline health care workers and others who are especially vulnerable to COVID-19.
Once that goal has been reached, the U.K. will offer the vaccine to everyone over 50 before finally moving on to everyone over 18.
Unlike other nations, Britain has chosen to stretch out the time between vaccine doses from 21 days to up to 12 weeks — a decision that means more people will get at least one dose more quickly.
Britain has approved three vaccines — ones by Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna. The first two are already being used, while the Moderna doses are not expected until spring.
Meanwhile, vaccination centers are being opened in England at some of the country's great cathedrals. Salisbury Cathedral, which also houses a copy of the Magna Carta, opened its great nave to the public. Others will follow as the rollout continues.
Organ music played as the jabs were delivered at Salisbury. Requests were taken.
“I doubt that anyone is having a jab in surroundings that are more beautiful than this, so I hope it will ease people as they come into the building,” said the Very Rev. Nicholas Papadopulos, Dean of Salisbury.

A property expert says proposed changes for Dunedin housing make sense.
Next week councillors in the city will decide on new rules which could enable more than two and a half thousand more homes to be built.
The plan's expected to include new areas for building and to make it easier to increase housing density in residential areas.
One Roof property commentator Ashley Church told Mike Hosking this is about making better use of available land.
He says this will be partly about reducing section sizes to create more room.
"Rather than moving out to greener fields and using up rural land, this will be partly about reducing section sizes to create more room."
Church says this is about getting as many people in residential areas as possible - but planning it in a way that doesn't turn the city into a slum.
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President-elect Joe Biden will take the stage for his inaugural address at perhaps the most difficult starting point for a president since Franklin Roosevelt began his first term by assuring a nation scarred by the Great Depression that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself.”
But memorable turns of phrase like Roosevelt’s are more the exception than the rule when it comes to inaugural addresses.
Former President Barack Obama in his memoir noted that singer Aretha Franklin’s showy hat and a glitch in Chief Justice John Roberts' administration of the oath of office got more attention than his speech in the days following the first Black president’s address, delivered as the nation was mired in recession and a growing malaise over two intractable wars.
Now, with the coronavirus raging, unemployment claims soaring and partisan divisions sharpening, Biden faces a fraught moment as he prepares to deliver a speech that aides say he wants to use to “call Americans to unity.”
“The situation he faces is absolutely brutal,” said Cody Keenan, who served as a chief speechwriter for Obama and assisted with his two inaugural addresses. He added that Biden in many ways is ”the perfect president for the moment, because he is not hyperbolic, he’s not a bomb thrower, he’s surrounded himself with policy wonks who already have all these plans. I think what we are going to hear him talk about is ‘Here’s where we are, here’s what we have to get done.' I think that’s going to go a long way just to making people feel better."
With the current mood of the country, Biden’s consistent focus on restoring “the soul of America” may be of greater value to the nation than any soaring oratory, in the view of some Democratic allies of the incoming president.
“It is entirely possible that this inaugural is one we remember for generations to come, because of the gravity of this moment” said David Litt, who served as an Obama speechwriter and wrote the comedic memoir, “Thanks, Obama: My Hopey Changey White House Years.” “But I also think it’s possible that the signature speeches of the Biden administration come at less expected moments and that would be par for the course.”
The inaugural address is as much a celebration of the peaceful handover of power as it is a set piece for a new or reelected president to lay out a vision for the nation. In recent memory, inaugural addresses have followed a predictable structure: The nation has challenges but there is hope to solve the problems if the president’s agenda is embraced.
One tradition dating back at least to Jimmy Carter’s 1977 inaugural is for the incoming president to offer the nation’s gratitude to the outgoing president — a moment of graciousness intended to put aside the strife of the political campaign and signal to Americans that it’s time to come together as a nation.
President Donald Trump won’t be there to hear it. He’s already said he won’t attend the inauguration — the first outgoing president to skip his successor's swearing-in since Andrew Johnson did not attend Ulysses S. Grant’s inauguration in 1869.
Ari Fleischer, who served as press secretary for President George W. Bush, said there are still ways that Biden’s speechwriting team can continue the tradition of honoring the peaceful transition of power by simply giving a nod to the past presidents and Vice President Mike Pence, who are expected to be at the Capitol for the address.
Biden chief of staff Ron Klain said during a recent event hosted by The Washington Post that the president-elect has been chipping away on the address through the entire transition — taking time every few days to write and rewrite his thoughts. His speechwriting team is led by longtime Biden collaborator Vinay Reddy.
More important than flowery oratory is substantively demonstrating how Biden will take steps to begin unifying a country that remains emotionally raw because of the pandemic and a divisive...

Hazardous drinking rates jumped over the Covid-19 lockdown last year, says Alcohol Healthwatch executive director Dr Nicki Jackson.
Her claims are backed up by the Ministry of Health's data on emergency department attendances.
The number of attendances in May 2020 was higher by 200 visits than a year earlier, with roughly 400 more visits in both June and July.
"Twenty per cent of New Zealanders increased their consumption at level 4 lockdown, at level 1 that reduced to about 14 per cent," Jackson said.
"Not everyone who drank heavily over lockdown sustained that, which was great, but for Māori, 22 per cent drank more during lockdown and 22 per cent drank more after than before."
Young people don't drink as much as they used to, but they still do dangerously.
The lockdown hike is part of a wider concern over hospital emergency departments being inundated with boozy Kiwis, with a leading doctor saying the true number is even higher than the ministry's data.
According to the ministry, alcohol-related attendances are recorded by DHBs using a system called the "Alcohol Red Flag".
It was first used in 2015/16 by five DHBs, of which four reported events, but more DHBs have since started to use the system, the ministry says.
Data shows the summer months are especially busy for alcohol-related attendances
The most attendances for one month last year were in December, with 3491 reported, however, Dr John Bonning says the real number is much higher.
Bonning, the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM) president, says total ED visits are roughly more than a million per annum in New Zealand.
"I would suggest there is a higher impact of alcohol than is indicated by [the] data."
The ministry, which provided the data under the Official Information Act, said the attendances, which included those admitted to hospital and those who were not, "should be interpreted with caution".
Not all the District Health Boards record ED visits the same way and therefore results among different parts of the country vary.
Bonning says the impact of alcohol on EDs may not be measured as accurately as possible because staff are often busy with other tasks.
"It's a little difficult to put the onus down on the care provider," he said.
In November, an ACEM survey suggested binge drinking is a bigger issue in New Zealand than across the ditch, with local EDs busier than in Australia.
At 2am on December 21, 2019, 16 per cent of patients were receiving alcohol-related treatment in New Zealand compared with 13 per cent in Australia.
Jackson says while those under the age of 24 years were both drinking less there was "a phenomenal" increase drinking among older generations.
However, it's still young people who find themselves visiting EDs for alcohol-related issues, Bonning says.
And the doctor doesn't mince his words when addressing the issue: "They put their lives at risk.
"They can choke on their own vomit, often vomit in the emergency department, vomit on staff, and they're frequently abusive and difficult to manage.
"If you end up in an ED as a result of drinking, you are harming not only yourself but others and using valuable health care resources."
In order to best prevent long-term alcohol-related health issues, women should consume no more than 10 standard drinks each week and men no more than 15.
By Luke Kirkness, NZ Herald

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Hosk's Specialist Subject/Our Raw Deal/The Media Has Gone Off the Deep End/Room for a Blimp?