The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Prince William, earlier this year, was speaking to Sir David Attenborough when they launched their Earthshot prize.
And as part of the chat, they talked a bit about the environmental credentials of the Royal family. William is the son of an astonishingly devout and consistent environmentalist in Prince Charles, who even if you're the staunchest republican, you'd be churlish not to recognise his unwavering dedication.
And Charles is the son of Prince Phillip, who was preaching the message dating back to the 1950s and 60s. The clip they showed of Phillip had him uttering that oft used line in environmentalism, "we must act now before it's too late."
Ah, before it's too late. Just when is that?
Well, for insurance purposes in this country it appears to be in 15 years. At least for a few thousand homes who sit in this fantastically unscientific 1 in 100-year flood zone they’ve invented. There places will not be able to get cover, we won't have acted before it's too late.
But the problem with this mad chicken and egg game we are playing is what if, yet again, they're wrong? What about all that stuff that was supposed to happen by 2020 and didn’t?
Y2K in 2000. In fact, the environmental movement warned us endlessly in the 80s and 90s we only had a decade left before it was too late. The cliff was the year 200, and we were going over it.
They spouted the same sort of bollocks when they signed the Kyoto climate deal. That same deal that was usurped by the Paris deal when Kyoto wasn’t going to get met.
This is not to say we shouldn’t be concerned about climate, the environment, or any of that because we should. But we have to stop being alarmist, because alarmism puts people off. The same way deadlines that come and go put people off.
To get buy-in you must have credibility. Every time you say the world is ending and it doesn’t, you’ve shot yourself in the foot, and it's harder to pedal the cause next time.
Since calamity was going to envelope us in 2000, more time has passed, 20 years, than the time that is due to pass before our homes are no longer insurable, 15 years.
In other words time passes quickly, a lot quicker than calamities arrives it would seem.
The proof the message is not sinking in is the price you pay for a house by the water, it's not going down.
Why do you reckon that would be?

The future of around 25,000 retailing jobs in Britain hangs in the balance after the failure of two long-established companies laid bare the fragility of much of the sector during the coronavirus pandemic.
Long-suffering Debenhams, the 242-year-old department store chain, said Tuesday that administrators had decided to start winding down operations after a potential buyer of the company pulled out. The move will potentially lead to 12,000 job losses if no buyer is found, as seems likely.
It was another devastating blow to the sector, coming just hours after Arcadia Group, the retail empire of billionaire Philip Green, went into administration, a type of bankruptcy protection, late Monday.
Both companies are set to reopen their doors in England on Wednesday when they emerge from a near month-long lockdown that forced the closure of shops selling items deemed to be non-essential, including clothes. Since the pandemic took root in March, the U.K. has forced the closure of retailing outlets in various ways.
For Debenhams, the reopening of its 124 U.K. stores is not expected to last long even though the administrators said they will continue to seek offers "for all or parts of the business" while they start selling off stock and liquidating the business.
Arcadia's stable of brands, which includes the likes of Burton, Miss Selfridge and Topshop, could still have a future and administrators are seeking buyers for all or parts of the company.
Retail experts said the pandemic and the associated restrictions only tell part of the problems that the companies have encountered. Both have struggled to respond to the increased competition from low-cost rivals like Primark, as well as from online disruptors such as ASOS and Boohoo.
It looks like a sad end for Debenhams, which can trace its history back to 1778 when William Clark set up a store in London's West End selling fabrics, bonnets, gloves and parasols. In 1813 William Debenham invested in the firm, which became Clark & Debenham. By 1950, the renamed Debenhams was one of the largest department store groups in the U.K.
Retail chain JD Sports had been mulling an offer for Debenhams but pulled out after Arcadia said it was going into administration. Arcadia is the biggest operator of concessions in Debenhams department stores, so its potential collapse affected Debenhams' appeal.
Debenhams, which went into administration in April, has already axed 6,500 jobs. It said it will continue to trade both in-shop and online to clear its current and contracted stocks.
"On conclusion of this process, if no alternative offers have been received, the U.K. operations will close," the company said in a statement.
Geoff Rowley of FRP Advisory, which is joint administrator for Debenhams, said "the economic landscape is extremely challenging and, coupled with the uncertainty facing the U.K. retail industry, a viable deal could not be reached."
Around 12 hours earlier, Arcadia called in administrators from Deloitte. It said the forced closure of its stores over long periods this year had "severely impacted" on trading.
As well as suffering from the pandemic, critics have said the 68-year-old Green, who has been embroiled in a series of controversies over the past few years, hasn't invested enough in the businesses to get them in shape to deal with new, nimbler online competitors.
"Arcadia has suffered against these emerging players because the company was slow to develop an innovative and user-friendly online offering as well as a strong brand narrative and social media presence," said Nina Marston, fashion and luxury analyst at Euromonitor International.
Unlike Debenhams, there are hopes that something can be salvaged from Arcadia and Deloitte's Matt Smith said he expects "to identify one or more buyers to ensure the future success of the businesses."
Arcadia, like Debenhams, has a long history, tracing its roots back...

One of New Zealand's unluckiest cricketers will finally make his international debut.
Will Young is set to make his test debut tomorrow, with wicketkeeper BJ Watling ruled out of the first test against the West Indies in Hamilton due to a hamstring injury picked up in the domestic one-day Ford Trophy with Northern Districts.
Black Caps captain Kane Williamson confirmed that Young would make his debut at his pre-match press conference today.
As first indicated yesterday by head coach Gary Stead, that means Young will open the batting, with Tom Blundell moving down the order and taking the wicketkeeping gloves in Watling's absence.
Young was set to make his debut against Bangladesh last year before the final test was called off following the Christchurch mosque attacks. He was on the verge of becoming a Black Caps regular in 2019, before suffering a shoulder injury during training camp in May, not long after receiving his first NZC contract. That kept him out of the World Cup squad to travel to England where he was set to act as batting cover, and saw the likes of Blundell and Glenn Phillips given test opportunities ahead of the 28-year-old.
Young made his return for Central Districts in January, ending a long seven month lay-off, and has been in stellar form early in the new domestic season, scoring an unbeaten 110 in the Plunket Shield against Northern Districts, before hitting 133 last week for New Zealand A against the West Indies in a four-day warm-up match.
Stead is happy with the state of the Black Caps' depth which allows players like Young to slot in to the team.
"I think Will's scored four of five A centuries now in the last couple of years, Devon [Conway]'s obviously done what he's done in domestic cricket and put a lot of runs on the board as well," he says.
"It's not only the batting places, I think the bowling places as well – the emergence of Kyle Jamieson and we've all seen Lockie's [Ferguson] pace, and Matt Henry's on the sideline as well.
"It's really healthy for us we have that competition for places and I think if we do have injuries, some replacements that can step straight into the test side."
The Black Caps come into the test series after having claimed the Twenty20 series against the West Indies 2-0, though Stead knows there is no relevance to be gleaned from that result when projecting to the first test which starts at Seddon Park in Hamilton tomorrow.
"I think it's a fresh start. Very close to none of the [West Indies] players there are actually here now, only two.
"We gave the guys the chance to get home and freshen up – [to] prepare as well as they can.
"I know there's some real excitement about the whole group getting back together. It's always healthy when you put your selectors' hat on when you have a lot of genuine competition for places."

Kiwifruit marketer Zespri and its long-time innovation partner Plant & Food Research are considering going into business together to turbo-charge the breeding search for new, tastier, healthier varieties.
The global kiwifruit seller and the Crown Research Institute are discussing a proposal for a 50:50 joint venture breeding centre, dedicated to breeding new kiwifruit cultivars and strengthening their successful 30 year relationship, from which sprang the best-seller SunGold kiwifruit variety and the new Zespri Red.
Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson has told growers investment in kiwifruit breeding was expected to increase by 50 per cent over the next 10 years - from a total of $18 million a year now to more than $30m annually, with the extra investment shared by Zespri and Plant & Food.
A proposed centre at Te Puke, New Zealand's kiwifruit capital, would be set up to be a single autonomous, agile entity which retained strong links to Zespri and Plant & Food.
It's hoped the centre could open mid-next year but any final decision on its establishment would need the approval of both the boards of Zespri and Plant & Food, as well as the sign-off of shareholding ministers of the CRI.
The two parties were talking to staff after a robust investigation which explored the need for, and the potential of, an upgraded breeding programme, said Mathieson.
The proposal would mainly affect Plant & Food staff and a small number of the Zespri staff.
The centre would be based in Te Puke, as well as operating out of Kerikeri, Motueka and Mt Albert, and would have a presence in Italy, where Zespri contracts growers, and China.
"The centre will help position us to better fulfil the growing demand from consumers for our fruit, ensuring we can continue to lead the world in the production of premium quality kiwifruit which deliver strong returns to growers and enable positive contributions to our communities," said Mathieson in a statement to growers.
"It represents our commitment to go faster, to explore promising new varieties in our research pipeline and to unlock further innovation so that we can generate even more value for New Zealand and our regions.
"It is also a response to staying ahead of increasing competition."
More information would be available to growers soon and industry discussions held in the coming months.
Zespri's total operating revenue in 2019-2020 was $3.36 billion. Almost $2b was returned to the New Zealand industry.
Zespri's net profit after tax was $200.8m
Trays sold, including New Zealand and non-NZ grown kiwifruit, totalled 164.4 million.

Tourism Holdings has slashed motorhome rates by up to 40 per cent in a ''Work from Anywhere'' campaign.
It is aimed at boosting demand during what threatens to be a soft summer for motorhome rentals without overseas visitors.
The company is working with Vodafone and Tourism New Zealand on the promotion which runs for most of summer on long-term rentals.
Rates for motorhomes are averaging about $150 a day (before the discount) now and the travel package for long-term rentals includes discounts for campgrounds, tourist attractions and optional unlimited data.
Tourism Holdings chief Grant Webster says the concept has proven popular and workable in the United States.
“This isn’t just about necessarily a motorhome. This is the whole industry saying get back into the regions and business, you know it works, you know you can trust your people, because that’s what you had to do for portions of this year.”
He says this is about supporting an embattled tourism sector - particularly across the summer months.
"It could make a real difference, because February is a key month for tourism, and we won't have those international tourists we had in previous years." 
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Singapore has granted San Francisco start-up Eat Just Inc. regulatory approval to sell its laboratory-grown chicken in the city-state -- the world's first government to allow the sale of cultured meat.
The product, created from cultured chicken cells, has been approved as an ingredient in chicken bites following Singapore Food Agency (SFA) approval, Eat Just said Tuesday.
Initially, the chicken bites will debut in a Singapore restaurant, with plans for wider expansion into dining and retail establishments in the country, Josh Tetrick, co-founder and CEO of Eat Just told CNN Business. The product will be priced at parity with premium chicken, he added.
"We've been eating meat for many hundreds, thousands of years, always needing to kill an animal to eat -- until now," he said.
The cultured meat is created in a bioreactor -- an apparatus in which a biological reaction or change takes place -- Eat Just said. It has a high protein content and is a rich source of minerals, according to the company, which plans to sell the product under the GOOD Meat brand.
For now, with manufacturing hubs in Singapore and Northern California, the company only has approval to sell the meat in Singapore, but it hopes to expand sales of cultured meat -- including cultured beef -- into the US and Western Europe, Tetrick said.
Eat Just already produces a range of non-animal products, including Just Egg, made with mung beans, and a vegan mayonnaise.
The trend toward meat substitutes and plant-based protein, already growing in the United States, is also taking hold in Asia.
This year, despite the global economic turmoil triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, plant-based protein startup Impossible Foods secured about half a billion dollars in fresh funding, with investment mostly coming from heavyweight investors in Asia.
California-based Beyond Meat last month unveiled a meatless minced "pork" for launch in China, while Impossible launched its fake beef product in supermarkets in Hong Kong and Singapore in October, hoping to widen its footprint across Asia.
text by Amy Woodyatt and Danielle Wiener-Bronner, CNN Business

The Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccination approved in the UK requires four weeks from the first jab for the "best immunity" to be achieved, regulators behind the decision have said.
Meanwhile, those who are first to receive the vaccination will be invited to take part in a voluntary "Yellow Card" monitoring program for side effects.
On Wednesday the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) became the first in the world to approve a Covid-19 vaccination for widespread use with the first doses to be delivered in days.
Leeds University virus expert Stephen Griffin told Mike Hosking the vaccine is a phenomenal scientific achievement.
"It really is fantastic news that we have, in space of less than a year, been able to access a vaccine against the pandemic." 
But he says he UK can't be complacent.
"We're only going to be contacting a fraction of the population. We still have very high levels of community transmission. We're seeing very high numbers of deaths every day."
Chief Executive Dr June Raine insisted no "corners had been cut" in the approval process and assured the public the decision had been reached following an "extremely thorough and scientifically rigorous review" of the vaccine's safety, effectiveness and quality.
"The safety of the public will always come first," she said, adding that the MHRA had completed a "rolling review" to achieve approval in the shortest-time possible.
She described the process as like climbing a mountain which began in June.
"By the time the interim results came in November, we were at base camp," Raine said, describing the final stretch as a "sprint."
Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed said immunisation will require two doses 21 days apart.
While "some immunity" is seen 12 days after the first dose, the "best immunity" comes seven days after the second dose, meaning it will be a total of four weeks before people can consider themselves safe from the virus.
Raine thanked those who had enlisted in clinical trials and said they will now be "inviting members of the public to join us in an active monitoring programme" for any potential side-effects.
Monitoring will be based on the existing Yellow Card system in the UK that allows people to report side effects of any drugs or medical devices. The scheme relies on voluntary reporting to flag any early warning signs that may warrant further investigation.
"We still do not know how Covid-19 interacts and behaves with medicines or medical devices used for existing conditions," the site warns under its Covid page.
"By reporting through this site, patients and healthcare professionals can help gather valuable evidence to inform decisions on the safe and effective use of medicines and medical devices as the pandemic evolves."
Guidance on the vaccine states that "most side effects are mild or moderate and go away within a few days of appearing".
Ones dubbed "very common" affecting more than one in 10 people include

pain at injection site
tiredness
headache
muscle pain
chills
joint pain
fever

Other side affects dubbed "common" affecting up to 1 in 10 include

injection site swelling
redness at injection site
nausea

While "uncommon" ones that may affect up to 1 in 100 people include:

enlarged lymph nodes
feeling unwell

WHO WILL GET IT FIRST?
The vaccine will be first given to those seen as at most risk of dying from the disease, including elderly, those with pre-existing conditions and frontline healthcare workers before a major public rollout.
That means care home residents will be first, followed by those over 80 and NHS workers, then those over age 75, followed by those over 70 and people with conditions that make them clinically vulnerable, and so on in five-year age brackets.
The next phase will involve general public...

I could well be preaching to the deaf here, especially given the Ipsos poll out this week that claims 75 percent of us love the border being shut.
75 percent of us also love wearing masks, which does seem the oddest thing in an already odd year, given we don’t have Covid.
It’s literally got so batty and bad I bet many of those mask wearers would say something like ‘better safe than sorry’ even though there is no Covid.
It’s sort of like not crossing the road, because you just never know, even though actually you do.
Of course like most polls it depends a lot on how you ask the question. The border isn’t actually closed - that’s why we have MIQ. And the question wasn’t nuanced enough to garner whether we would be open to the idea of a little entrepreneurial thought around it.
For example, should certain industries like education or big business be able to run their own facilities to boost the number of students and workers allowed in the country?
Should the government look to expand their capability to achieve the same sort of result?
Should the government look to try a bit harder to actually fill the gaps they’ve got in MIQ to try and get as many people here as is possible?
Because here’s what’s happening.
Australia already has RSE workers arriving and picking crops, so they’re beating us to market.
Australia now has its first foreign students on the ground and in quarantine. They are beating us to the rebuild of an industry: here it’s worth $5 billion, there its worth over $30 billion.
The internal borders of the entire eastern seaboard are now open. Even Western Australia, almost as arcane and conservative as us, is opening to the rest of Australia later this month.
Australia is open for business.
Even a bunch of medicos in Melbourne stand aghast currently wondering why our side of the trans-tasman bubble hasn’t been enacted.
To the winners goes the spoils, or in this case, the produce to market, the students to unis, the tourists to Queensland.
The vaccine will only accelerate this. Some in this world are not cowered by Covid. Some are aspirational, and energetic for re-emergence. Australia is a good example of this by doing the spade work now.
They will see a better and more prosperous 2021, while we dawdle at our peril.

The dramatic escalation of tension between Australia and China this week has raised questions about what China’s endgame is.

Relations dropped to a new low on Monday after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian tweeted a “repugnant” fake image of an Australian soldier holding a knife at the throat of an Afghan child, drawing condemnation from Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The provocative act shocked Australians and comes after a series of Chinese trade decisions against Australian products.
China has introduced huge tariffs of up to 212 per cent on Australian wines for alleged dumping and 80 per cent tariffs on barley, as well as suspending barley imports over allegations of pests. Other products impacted by actions include beef, copper, cotton, lobsters, sugar, timber, tourism, universities, wheat and wool.
Last week it emerged that 53 ships carrying Australian coal have been stuck at Chinese ports for more than a month without being able to offload their cargo. Some of the ships left Australia in May.
While China has argued its actions have a legitimate basis, Australian Strategic Policy Institute defence director Michael Shoebridge believes it could also show that China uses “trade as a weapon”.

People want Christmas to come even earlier this year.
Christmas pines are flying out the door as people are determined to have a good festive season, in spite of the pandemic.
Owner of Misa Christmas Trees in Auckland, Michael Fuyala told Mike Hosking his tree farm is always busy - but online sales have exploded.
He's never seen anything like it.
"We have three trucks on the road pretty much around the clock at the moment just to keep up with demand."
He says when times are gloomy, certain things sell more quickly.
"I think people just want a bit of cheering up. It's been a bit of a grim year, and now people want to enjoy Christmas and get into celebration mode."
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