The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The stunning display of Vincent Van Gogh's masterpieces are set to come alive once again, back by popular demand.
The Digital Nights experience sold-out on Wellington’s waterfront a few months ago.
It's coming back next year - and as well as being staged in Wellington again, is also going to Christchurch and Auckland.
The multi-sensory event involves thousands of paintings, giving them a sense of life, creating the sensation of walking straight into the art.
Created by Grande Experiences, Van Gogh Alive gives visitors the unique opportunity to immerse themselves into Van Gogh’s artistry and truly venture into his world.
Owner Bruce Peterson says it's a multi sensory experience.
He told Mike Hosking this includes a score and an aroma which flow through the venue.
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House prices are skyrocketing, and this is just the beginning, say Westpac economists in a new report on the economy.
"By mid-2021 we expect house price inflation will be 15 per cent, roughly the same as 2016," says Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens.
"The political and social fallout will be just as intense as it was back then."
Rising house prices were an unintended consequence of the Reserve Bank's interest rate cuts, he said.
"But that doesn't mean the RBNZ is going to reverse course – if it did, deflation and high unemployment would beckon."
"We still expect that the RBNZ will cut the OCR below zero next year, while simultaneously slowing the quantitative easing programme which will run low on fuel."
Economists at both ASB an ANZ yesterday released reports yesterday which suggested the odds of interest rates being cut in to negative territory as less likely.
"We now expect a more gradual easing in the OCR to -0.25 per cent, and it is looking less clear-cut that a negative OCR will occur at all," wrote ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner.
"Weighing up all the possibilities, we still think a negative OCR is more likely than not, but there are a number of risks that could change the landscape."
At ASB senior economist Mike Jones now thinks the RBNZ will hold off cutting the OCR to negative territory.
But he agrees with Stephens that the housing boom won't let up.
"Having initially lauded the housing boom for helping to rescue the recovery, it's quickly become a headache for the RBNZ, regardless of whether it believes it's responsible," Jones said.
"We think it will get worse. We've been calling for LVR restrictions to be returned and they now will be, in March. But we suspect this will slow rather than stall house price acceleration."
Westpac also revised our forecast for the unemployment rate, which we now expect to peak at 6.2 per cent early next year.
"That would be similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis and much lower than we initially feared when Covid-19 first arrived on our shores," Stephens said.
Outside of the travel and tourism sectors, much of the ground lost earlier in the year had already been recovered, with many parts of the domestic economy rebounding faster than expected after the lockdown, he said.
At the head of the pack, businesses linked to the building industry were reporting strong demand. There had also been lifts in manufacturing activity (including exports) and gains in the retail sector.
"Against this backdrop, we're now seeing a rise in the number of businesseswho are planning to take on new staff," Stephens said.
Underpinning this resilience in domestic activity has been New Zealand's success in curbing the spread of Covid-19, he said.
"That's meant most restrictions on activity have been lifted sooner than anticipated and has left New Zealand sitting in a much better position than many other countries."
Globally, the economic gap between countries that have controlled the virus and countries that have not is was wide as ever.
"New Zealand is lucky to find itself in a relatively Covid-free part of the world. Long may that last, because Asia's resilient economies have backstopped our agricultural exporters in an otherwise difficult situation."
On top of that, a massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus had been rolled out since the start of the year.
"That's given demand in some key parts of the economy (including the housing market) a powerful shot in the arm."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating after being told he came into contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus, officials said Sunday.
“He will carry on working from Downing Street, including on leading the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic,” a statement from his office said.
Johnson “is well and does not have any symptoms of COVID-19,” it added.
Johnson met with a small group of lawmakers for about a half-hour on Thursday, including one who subsequently developed coronavirus symptoms and tested positive.
He was notified by the National Health Service's Test and Trace system Sunday and told he should self-isolate because of factors including the length of the meeting.
Officials said they will discuss with parliamentary authorities how Johnson can take part remotely in Parliament's business. He plans to “continue speaking to the country during his self-isolation period,” they added.
The statement didn't say how long Johnson planned to isolate, but U.K. health authorities' guidance is that anyone contacted by Test and Trace should quarantine for 14 days.
In April, Johnson was hospitalized in intensive care for three nights after contracting COVID-19. After he was discharged, he thanks health workers for saving his life and said for 48 hours during his hospital stay “things could have gone either way.”
His partner Carrie Symonds, who was pregnant at the time, also experienced symptoms and had to self-isolate.
The prime minister later said he wanted to build up his fitness, and in the summer he launched a national campaign to tackle obesity after acknowledging that he was “too fat” when he fell ill.

The Howard League for Penal Reform is helping ex-offenders earn a drivers licence - to keep the trucking industry moving.
It claims the cost of imprisoning a person for a year can fund training for 100 people in Class 2 to 5 licences.
That includes learning how to operate heavy-vehicles, road works, farm machinery and forklifts.
Chief Executive Mike Williams told Mike Hosking just about anyone can get work with such a licence.
“There’s a shortage of truck drivers, which was filled for years by immigration, but of course there’s no immigration at the moment because of Covid-19.”
Williams says they would jump at the chance of a job,  rather than go on the dole.
He says those who go out looking for jobs want to go straight and don't want to lapse back into crime.
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Aren't you pleased the Greens aren't in government anymore? I mean they are, but not in a way that's going to bother us at all.
Jan Logie wants Labour to double sick leave before Christmas. It's not happening. I talked to the Prime Minister off air yesterday, they want it to go through the select committee process.
There are bits and pieces around part timers, casual workers, and the sort of detail you might not think of if you were in a rush to pass law. It's clearly the sort of rush Logie is in, and yet another reminder of why earnest amateurs do not serve this country well at the highest level.
Besides, doubling sick leave is a cost many employers need like a hole in the head.
Which, beyond the Greens, is a reminder that although they aren't in government, the fact Labour is shows that they are no real friends of business either. The minimum wage increases along with the sick leave are proof of that.
Also, the Greens through James Shaw, have had a good crack at Labour over the price of houses and the lack of a wealth tax. The point Shaw makes, which is fair, is that Labour made much in opposition of the cost of a house, how unfair it all was, how they would do something about it, but they've watched them skyrocket further.
But where Shaw misses the point, either deliberately or through lack of knowledge, is that the most active people in the market right now are first home buyers. That is good and regular folks who are trading up, down, moving town, or just generally taking advantage of cheap money and purchasing an everyday home to live in.
None of this attracts a wealth tax, even if we had one. Remember you need to have a million bucks above and beyond your home and debts.
Shaw makes the mistake of many a politician, the belief that they can control everything. The housing market has become an obsession for no good reason, it's sucked politicians in year after year, and made fools of them. Governments can't change markets. If they could, they would have, but they haven't.
Banks have more influence than governments, wider economic circumstances beyond our control have more influence than governments, and we have more influence than governments.
Why they haven't learned that, I don’t know because who needs the headache? But we can be grateful for the fact some of that Green's nuttiness is no longer round the table the way it used to be.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Where Did it Really Come From?/All These Agreements/Not Missing the Greens/Cancelling Charles/Art Appreciation 101

A second experimental COVID-19 vaccine — this one from Moderna Inc. — yielded extraordinarily strong early results Monday, another badly needed dose of hope as the pandemic enters a terrible new phase.
Moderna said its vaccine appears to be 94.5% effective, according to preliminary data from an ongoing study. A week ago, competitor Pfizer Inc. announced its own vaccine looked 90% effective — news that puts both companies on track to seek permission within weeks for emergency use in the U.S.
The results are “truly striking,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious-diseases expert. “The vaccines that we're talking about, and vaccines to come, are really the light at the end of the tunnel.”
A vaccine can’t come fast enough, as virus cases topped 11 million in the U.S. over the weekend — 1 million of them recorded in just the past week — and governors and mayors are ratcheting up restrictions ahead of Thanksgiving. The outbreak has killed more than 1.3 million people worldwide, over 246,000 of them in the U.S.
Stocks rallied on Wall Street and elsewhere around the world on rising hopes that the global economy could start returning to normal in the coming months. Moderna was up 7.5% in the morning, while companies that have benefited from the stay-at-home economy were down, including Zoom, Peloton and Netflix.
Both vaccines require two shots, given several weeks apart. U.S. officials said they hope to have about 20 million Moderna doses and another 20 million of the vaccine made by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech to use in late December.
Dr. Stephen Hoge, Moderna’s president, welcomed the “really important milestone” but said having similar results from two different companies is what’s most reassuring.
“That should give us all hope that actually a vaccine is going to be able to stop this pandemic and hopefully get us back to our lives,” Hoge told The Associated Press. He added: “It won’t be Moderna alone that solves this problem. It’s going to require many vaccines” to meet the global demand.
If the Food and Drug Administration allows emergency use of Moderna’s or Pfizer’s candidate, there will be limited, rationed supplies before the end of the year.
Exactly who is first in line has yet to be decided. But Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the hope is that enough doses are available by the end of January to vaccinate adults over 65, who are at the highest risk from the coronavirus, and health care workers. Fauci said it may take until spring or summer before anyone who is not high risk and wants a shot can get one.
The National Institutes of Health helped create the vaccine Moderna is manufacturing, and NIH's director, Dr. Francis Collins, said the exciting news from two companies “gives us a lot of confidence that we're on the path towards having effective vaccines.”
But “we're also at this really dark time,” he warned, saying people can't let down their guard during the months it will take for doses of any vaccines cleared by the FDA to start reaching a large share of the population.
Moderna’s vaccine is being studied in 30,000 volunteers who received either the real thing or a dummy shot. On Sunday, an independent monitoring board examined 95 infections that were recorded after volunteers’ second shot. Only five of the illnesses were in people given the vaccine.
Earlier this year, Fauci said he would be happy with a COVID-19 vaccine that was 60% effective.
The study is continuing, and Moderna acknowledged the protection rate might change as more COVID-19 infections are detected. Also, it’s too soon to know how long protection lasts. Both cautions apply to Pfizer’s vaccine as well.
But Moderna’s independent monitors reported some additional, promising tidbits: All 11 severe COVID-19 cases were among placebo recipients, and there were no significant safety concerns. The main side effects were fatigue, muscle...

Leave it to music legend Dolly Parton to bring some Christmas cheer to 2020.
The country legend joined Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking to talk about her new Christmas album, A Holly Dolly Christmas. It's the star's first Christmas album in over 30 years, following her last festive record with Kenny Rogers released in 1984. 2020's offering, A Holly Dolly Christmas, features her goddaughter Miley Cyrus, plus Billy Ray Cyrus, Michael Buble, and Jimmy Fallon to name a few.
"I'm so proud of the Kenny/Dolly album, I don't think we'll ever top that, nor would we ever need to, but that was 30 years ago. So I figured it was about time for me to do something a little different," she says.
Parton says she although the coronavirus pandemic has affected everyone in different ways, her already small circle means she hasn't had to make too many changes to how she makes music.
"I've actually been able to do everything within a little circle, and we've done it very safely, we get tested all the time ... we manage to make it all work."
Parton's music and charm has inspired generations of fans, and the singer is grateful for the longevity of her career.
"I'm hoping that I have something to say to every generation because songs are always the same feelings. We cry the same tears, you know, at different times," she says.
"I've been around so long that people kinda think of me as a family member, like a sister or a favourite aunt, someone they've always known."
She credits her upbringing for helping her remain grounded.
"I do think there's a lot to be said about being brought up poor with humble beginnings. I never take for granted anything that I have, I'm grateful for everything," she says.
"You do always appreciate the value of a dollar when you've been brought up poor, but you also appreciate the success. I've always said there's a difference between being successful and being a success.
"You're only a true success when you can enjoy being successful, knowing what you've got and appreciating it, and counting your blessings more often than you count your money."
Parton has also released a new book called Songteller: My Life in Lyrics. It tells the stories of some of her most famous songs, how they came about, and why they mean so much to her.
• Watch the full interview with Mike Hosking above. A Holly Dolly Christmas is out now.

There's no doubt about Dustin Johnson's status as the top golfer in the world.
The world number one has crushed the field to claim his second major with a record victory at the US Masters today.
Johnson has gone wire-to-wire to secure his first Masters victory, finishing on 20-under which is a Masters record. Tiger Woods (1997) and Jordan Speith (2015) held the previous record of the best Masters total score of 18-under.
The victory follows his FedEX Cup title two months ago where he walked away with US$15m in prize money.
Johnson, who began the tournament with a first round 65, carded a four-under 68 to finish five shots clear of Australia Cameron Smith and South Korea's Sungjae Im in second.
Smith became the first player to ever shoot all four rounds in the 60s. In 84 stagings of the Masters, Smith and Im's scores of 15-under would have been enough to earn a green jacket in 79 of them.
Im broke the record for the lowest total score on Masters debut.
Justin Thomas finished in fourth at 12-under with South Africa's Dylan Frittelli and Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland a shot back in fifth.
Johnson's previous major victory was the 2016 US Open. He finished second behind Tiger Woods at Augusta last year and went into this year's tournament with four straight top 10 finishes at the Masters.
The quirk of the Covid-19 changed schedule means Johnson will defend his title at Augusta in April, where it will be back to its normal spot as the first major of 2021.

South Australia's worst cluster to date has gone from bad to worse with 17 cases now tied to the family outbreak.

Speaking to Adelaide’s 5AA Radio this morning, South Australia’s chief public health officer Dr Nicola Spurrier confirmed the Parafield cluster was growing at a rapid rate.
Hungry Jacks Port Adelaide has also been closed and is the latest venue to shut for deep cleanign.
Dr Spurrier described the outbreak as “very serious”.
South Australia yesterday reported three local coronavirus cases among a family that has members working in hotel quarantine, aged and health care and a large prison.
A woman in her 80s tested positive at the Lyell McEwin Hospital emergency department on Friday night. Two of the woman’s close contacts – a woman in her 50s and a man in his 60s – also tested positive yesterday. One of the infected people is the elderly woman’s child.
Dr Spurrier said one of them worked in Adelaide’s CBD at one of the state’s medi-hotels — where returned travellers quarantine for two weeks.
Another close contact from the family also tested positive late on Sunday with SA Correctional Services chief executive David Brown confirming an employee at Yatala Labour Prison in Adelaide’s northern suburbs had tested positive.
Four more members of the family were showing symptoms late yesterday with original estimates suggesting the cluster could grow to eight.
The state’s last case of unknown community transmission was more than seven months ago – on April 15. 
The outbreak triggered warnings and closures across Adelaide with Mawson Lakes primary and preschool shut down for at least 24 hours after a student was confirmed to be a close contact of a confirmed case.
South Australian passengers were also hit with a two week quarantine mandate after landing in Western Australia with the government ordering them to either return home or self-isolate for a fortnight.