The Mike Hosking Breakfast

It has been a long campaign - a month longer than was originally anticipated - but finally, the 2020 election campaign is coming to an end. 
Polls and political commentators are suggesting that it is a foregone conclusion, with a Labour-Greens coalition looking like the most likely option, but the Colmar Brunton poll last night suggests 14 percent of the population remains undecided. 
And the question on the referendums also appears to be getting closer, with polls showing that the cannabis and euthanasia legalisation referendums could go either way. 
Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson join Mike Hosking to discuss what they think could happen tomorrow night.
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It's the last day of campaigning - and one political commentator thinks the election is a foregone conclusion.
Former Labour senior adviser Neale Jones told Mike Hosking 60 percent have already voted.
"We kind of know what the polls are, and the campaign feels like it's been about two and a half months long, so I'll just be glad for it all to be over to be honest with you." 
But former National senior adviser Brigitte Morten says there are also a lot of unknowns.
She says we don't have the public polling we used to have in New Zealand, so there's not as much consistency.
"Polls are about trends and what's been happening back and forth, but ultimately, the poll is tomorrow night."
Jones and Morten will be joining Mike Hosking and Barry Soper live during Newstalk ZB's election coverage tomorrow night.
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At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
The Election Campaign
7/10
"I've enjoyed it.
“It's got better as time has gone on."
Judith Collins' Campaign
9/10
"Worked her butt off, but her party can't say the same.
“She got more real once she shook off the mad advice to tone herself down.
“She delivered plenty of policy, fired plenty of shots, and left it all on the field."
Jacinda Ardern's Campaign
8/10
"Good campaign.
“Played it safe, smiled till her face broke, not a lot of policy, but that was never the point."
The Greens' Campaign
6/10
"Got caught badly on tax and no bottom lines.
“They're too nice and too disorganised for their own good."
David Seymour's Campaign
9/10
"Don't think he did a thing wrong.
“He just piled up the support, votes, and deserves every success coming his way.
“He was himself, supplied plenty of zingers, and looked like he had a ball."
Winston Peters' Campaign
4/10
"Wrong approach.
“Moaned about his own government and was grumpy with it.
“Also doesn’t help having a couple of your mates charged by the SFO."
The Media
4/10
"Their worst collective display in my 38 years in the game. The bias was so obvious, which made the claims of neutrality so dishonest.
“Too many are too young and too inexperienced.
“A Prime Minister in a mall at lunchtime is not drawing a crowd, people wanting selfies with anyone remotely well known is not a sign of popularity, and parties inviting supporters to come along has been going on for decades.
“It's only those who are 12 and on their first campaign that find any of this new, or newsworthy."
The Economy
6/10
"Enough there this week to, if not give overwhelming joy, perhaps a reasonable sigh of relief.
“Spending up, spending intentions up, confidence measures up, and the Truckometer up.
“It ain't what it was, but we will take it."
Judith Collins' Call on Obesity
8/10
"In a woke old world of hand wringing PC excuses for everything, and in a world where no one must be offended or held to account, god bless Collins for keeping it real."
The All Blacks
7/10
"What a joy to have them back.
“What a joy to see a crowd, what a joy to see Australia truly competitive, and what a joy to know it's another New Zealander who made them so."
Newstalk ZB
9/10
"An astonishing week for this fine radio station.
“Ratings show we have never in the history of Newstalk ZB had more people tuned in.
“I call it a flight to quality."
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW

South African Rugby say a final decision on the Springboks' participation in the Rugby Championship will be communicated today.
It follows a report in the New Zealand Herald suggesting they have already given notice of their intention to withdraw.
The veracity of the report hasn't been denied.
Meanwhile, the All Blacks coaches face some tough calls for the second Bledisloe Cup match as injuries have affected their plans.
With George Bridge out for six months due to a pectoral injury, Caleb Clarke and Rieko Ioane are the contenders to take his left wing spot in the All Blacks to play the second Bledisloe Cup test against the Wallabies on Sunday.
Decisions also loom over the fitness of Beauden Barrett and Sam Whitelock when the team's named at 11:30.
Sky Sport commentator and former All Black Justin Marshall joined Mike Hosking to discuss the ongoing news.
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President Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden will compete for TV audiences in duelling town halls on Thursday night instead of meeting face-to-face for their second debate as originally planned.
The two will take questions in different cities on different networks: Trump on NBC from Miami, Biden on ABC from Philadelphia. Trump backed out of plans for the presidential faceoff originally scheduled for the evening after debate organizers said it would be held virtually following Trump's coronavirus diagnosis.
The town halls offer a different format for the two candidates to present themselves to voters, after the two held a chaotic and combative first debate late last month. But Trump, speaking on Fox Business on Thursday morning, indicated he had no plans to change his tone going forward.
Trump said of the first debate that "some people said I was rude, but you have to be rude. The guy's a liar."
In case anyone remains unaware of Trump's tactics, Biden warned supporters at a virtual fundraiser that the president would go after him aggressively in the final weeks of the campaign.
"We've got 19 days left and you know he's going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at me," Biden said Thursday. "And it's going to be an overwhelming torrent of lies and distortions."
Biden's son, Hunter Biden, has come under scrutiny this week following a New York Post report outlining an email Hunter allegedly received from a Ukrainian businessman discussing a meeting with the elder Biden. Biden's campaign has said the meeting never happened, and experts have raised questions about the veracity of the email, but Trump has nevertheless seized on the news and has pushed falsehoods about Hunter Biden at each of his rallies this week.
During his rally, Trump went hard after Biden, repeating his campaign message that "Joe Biden is a corrupt politician."
Trump also preemptively attacked NBC before the town hall, declaring that at a previous event the network hosted "they asked him questions that a child could answer." He joked that he wished he could watch Biden's appearance Thursday night because "I wanna see if he can made it through the program."
As the pace of the campaign speeds up in its final weeks, the two candidates were first taking care of other electoral necessities Thursday: Trump appeared at his midday rally in battleground North Carolina, and Biden raised campaign cash at his virtual event.
Trump spent much of the rally downplaying the severity of the virus that's killed over 217,000 Americans, after largely recovering himself.
"It's going to peter out. It's going to end," he said of the pandemic — just as he had last winter — even as cases have continued to increase nationwide in recent weeks.
And he mentioned that his own son, Barron, "recovered so fast" from the virus to bolster his argument for why schools can and should fully reopen.
"We've learned about this disease. You've got to open up your businesses, open up your schools, get it going," he said.
Trump also took his most overt swipe yet at Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, with whom Trump has publicly disagreed on the coronavirus. He said Fauci is a nice guy, "so I keep him around." But he also described Fauci, who has served in administrations of both parties, as a Democrat.
"Everybody knows that. He's Cuomo's friend," Trump says, a reference to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo," he said.
The president's appearance in North Carolina underscores the challenge confronting him in the final weeks of the election as multiple polls have shown Trump trailing Biden nationally and in many swing states. Trump has spent much of the week on defense, campaigning in states he won in 2016, like North Carolina and Iowa, where he campaigned Wednesday.
But despite the polling, Trump predicted a "big, beautiful red wave" on Election Night, before referencing another one of his major...

A Valentine’s Day phone call between NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and her lover and former Liberal MP Daryl McGuire was intercepted by corruption investigators and it reveals how clearing his debts were central to their hopes of a future life together.
The covert recording, that involved a police warrant, took place on the February 14, 2018, just months before Mr McGuire was forced out of politics over land commissions on property deals.
It also raises fresh questions about how much Ms Berejiklian knew about the deals before Mr McGuire was forced to quit politics over the scandal.
The inquiry has heard that Mr McGuire was in the midst of a divorce and knew he had to hand over a substantial amount of his parliamentary pension to his wife, Maureen.
Ms Berejiklian and Mr McGuire appear to be talking about his divorce and the financial fallout on the Valentine’s Day phone call.
“No I’m just trying, trying to let you think about what you need to do and all that stuff that’s all,’’ Ms Berejiklian says.
Mr McGuire says he just needs to “get these things over the line that’s why I was late for the thing last- working, working, working.”
“Hmm,’’ Ms Berejiklian replies.
At that point, Mr McGuire appears to refer to the Country Gardens deal that was ultimately at the centre of his departure from politics several months later.
In a phone tap released by ICAC in July 2018, Mr McGuire reveals that Country Garden is a client and he stands to earn a commission over a deal involving the development.
“I’ve got a meeting tomorrow morning with Joe and those guys try and tie that up I’m working bloody hard because (indecipherable) Garden has f***ing fallen through and Jimmy’s we got his over the line that’s good I can’t I can’t not go to nothing I have to go to something there is no future doing things for NSW government.”
Ms Berejiklian responds by calling him “Hokis” an Armenian term of affection.
“I understand that but this is the other thing that I am thinking right that I-- I need you to process in your head what you want to do right but I also need to come to the realisation that it’s not got anything to do with me so I just have.”
Mr McGuire replies that it will have “absolutely nothing” to do with her.
“But that’s that’s a bigger picture, bigger issue that I need to figure out,’’ Ms Berejiklian replied.
Mr McGuire adds: “I just, I just, I just, got to sort out you know with these kids and stuff what’s going to happen that’s all I’m worried about.”
“Yes I know that’s why I am giving you space. I’m trying not to stress you,’’ Ms Berejiklian says.
“I’m trying to support, support you not stress you.”
In the meantime, Mr McGuire says: “I am working to make the farm pay. I’m working to try and get things over the line. I don’t want to stay. I want to go you know but if they push me into a corner then then you know I’ll have no choice.”
The NSW Premier replies, “Hmm.”
“I don’t want to be pushed into a corner, that’s why I’m working hard. You know that’s why I went to the meeting. Why I was late. That’s why I’m having lunch with people. I’m working.”
“I get that I’m just trying to process things in my own head that’s all,’’ she replies.
“You’ve got to think about your stuff and I’ve got to think about my stuff that’s all.”
The phone call ends like this:
MAGUIRE: Hmm well I am working on that Gladys. I’m going to bed see ya later.
BEREJIKLIAN: OK bye.
MAGUIRE: Goodnight.
Ms Berejiklian has denied any wrongdoing or that she knew about her ex-lovers controversial deals.

So the campaign of 2020 is all but done.
I find it hard to believe there are many left who don’t know who they're voting for. The hope is that the early voting means more people ultimately will take part, I hope so. Democracy is never to be taken for granted, even though we do.
I think it worked out okay in the end. The extension to tomorrow was the only possible option given Auckland's second lockdown. That made the whole thing seem long, which it was.
We got plenty of policy in the end. But the question for this specific vote is how much is about policy? And how much is it about a closed border and feeling you can generally go about your business without too much fear?
As a result of the uniqueness of this election the minor players never got a look in. I mean the really minor players; they got no attention and they will get next to no vote. That's what a pandemic does for you. It's a voter flight to what they know, this is no time to test or experiment.
Which is why Labour has led. It was their lockdown, their plan, such as it is, and that’s what they will be judged on.
National could only try to paint a picture of what might have been. They managed to paint a pretty good picture, and a genuine alternative. If policy does count, they win the prize for putting good solid amounts of it out that show, whether you agree or not, there are genuinely other ways to run the country.
The Greens and New Zealand First in different ways are paying the price of MMP. Being a small party in government is a kiss of death. NZ First has almost certainly been smacked on the lips, and the Greens are somewhere between puckering up and the full pash.
Winston Peters made an era in not promoting the gains in government. He focused on all the stuff he stopped. But negativity isn't appealing and isn't a vote collector. And to be honest his record is so old and scratched, only the truly senile still want to play it one more time.  
The Greens have been the Greens. Hopelessly idealistic, and phenomenally mixed messaged. Trying to appeal to people who love national parks and communists has always  been the problem, and that’s prevented them from reaching their true potential. That's before you get to their lack of backbone around policy, a top priority is an invite to get trampled on.
ACT are your real stars. Led by David Seymour who appears to have done literally nothing wrong. He's got ACT from 1 percent to who knows, maybe 7 or 8 percent? One MP to, who knows, maybe 9 or 11? And all the while it's come with pithy one liners, awesome bum outs, and a light of foot attitude that people love.
Labour have run the only campaign they could. Selfies with Jacinda Ardern, a huge chequebook of borrowed money, and the hope that the fear lasts until 7 o'clock tomorrow.
But for now, this has been your campaign.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Friday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) A Bit Overhyped/Final Poll/Except for This Other Poll/Mark the Week

The Association of Proprietors for Integrated Schools is being advised to be proactive, after state integrated schools missed out on Government maintenance funding.
Hawke's Bay boarding school for girls, Woodford House is one of the schools that wasn't included.
Post Primary Teachers' Association president Jack Boyle says Woodford House can't say it's losing money from missing out - because they're funded for property and maintenance under the proprietors levy.
"Probably a case for APIS to be working with the Ministry of Education, if there is in fact an additional need that can't be met through the proprietors levy."
Boyle told Mike Hosking that he would not suggest that this is a political move from the Government, showing disdain towards integrated schools. 
He says the state schools who are getting between $40,000 and $200,000 are "delighted" with the sum of money. 
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Dean Nicholson has become somewhat of an unexpected celebrity.
In September 2018, he quit his job as a manual labourer in Scotland and decided to get on his bike and cycle, around the world.
Along the way - he ran into a stray cat, who would not leave him alone - so Dean decided to take it with him.
He named it Nala - and the pair's journey has captured the attention of hundreds of thousands of people - who now follow the adventure online. 
And now, he's told part of his story in his first book Nala's World.
Dean Nicholson joined Mike Hosking to talk about his amazing adventures.
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