The Mike Hosking Breakfast

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Ardern Strikes Back/U.S. Out of Control/More and More Polls/Covid Theory VS Reality

Hard to know whether the feisty nature of the second debate came from the fact Jacinda Ardern lost the first one or whether they had both been watching and taking tips from Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
But from the bell the exchange was on. And dare I suggest it, but my advice out of last week's debate, which was soporific and geriatric in its pace, was immeasurably improved by a moderator who was engaged, had a question line, and was holding both combatants to account.
Pace puts people on their toes and we saw the results, and it was good to see the gloves off as well.
Ardern learned her lesson out of the first debate, where she was either tired, asleep, arrogant, or all of the aforementioned, but she was back. The trouble she faces, and Collins early barb of "manners” exposed it, is for a person who wanted kindness and positivity has let that charade slip all week, and last night we saw more of it.
It reflects the polls, the centre left has lost momentum. The centre right is on the rise. The gap is closing. What was a cake walk, has shrunk to an easy win, which has shrunk to a likely win, which is fast shrinking to a tight race. So, the pressured is on and you're seeing it in the way Ardern operates and presents herself.
Collins last week and this, thank God, has shaken off the advice she was clearly getting, and sadly taking from people in her office that don’t have a clue, and is back to the old crusher. Nothing beats authenticity, people can see it, and feel it from a mile off. She's getting better the more natural she is.
Ardern alternatively is starting to sweat, it doesn’t suit her. She suffered badly on the wage subsidy. Everyone seems to agree that companies taking it and making profit is bad. Ardern didn’t like it, and yet she was the one that set the rules and then said she wouldn’t do anything about it, Collins would.
That’s the trouble with being in power you have to defend your policies. And Ardern criticised something she created and wouldn’t fix. That's theory versus reality, a weak point of the past three years.
Ultimately though you'd struggle to call a winner out of Ardern and Collins. Both held their ground well, on everything from cannabis, to health and cancer, and to housing. Although if you had to, Collins takes it, just.
Both made good points, both responded well to pressure, both said they'd investigate PHARMAC. To be frank that looked like investigations announced on the hoof to look good. It reminded me of last time when Ardern promised a second pipe line in Auckland for fuel. Did it happen? Of course not. But in the heat of the moment you're prone to saying a lot of mad stuff that will never see the light of day.
Which really is why Patrick Gower was the ultimate winner, he held them to account. And, my God, these past 3 years the mainstream media has failed abysmally on that front. He, in a tiny way, made up for that last night.

Judith Collins is being tipped as the winner of last night's debate, but only just.
The National party leader went head to head with Jacinda Ardern on issues including Covid-19, housing, health and cannabis.
Former Labour and United Future MP Peter Dunne told Mike Hosking whether you agree with Collins or not, she gave clear answers to questions.
"Ardern was still a bit vague and waffly, and hard to pin down. Collins was sharp and specific. But they were both a lot better than last week."
Dunne says people mainly watch out of curiosity.
He says it's unknown how much the debate will influence people's votes, but the polls only moved a little bit after the last debate.
LISTEN ABOVE

The PM didn't like it - "jeepers" - but Judith Collins confirmed today she'd have no problem appointing David Seymour as Deputy Prime Minister should a National-Act alliance hit the 51 per cent party-vote mark on election day.
And the National Party leader confirmed to Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning her "big call" policy during last night's TV leaders' debate to introduce a new law to reclaim the wage subsidy from some companies if they were found to have misused it during the first Covid lockdown.
"It is important to find out... Jacinda Ardern said last night that these companies played by the rules. The trouble is, the rules were pathetic and they just let people go waltzing through them.
"But there is a moral right, a moral duty of people if they've taken all that money... if they don't need it, they should have paid it back."
Asked how she could introduce a law when companies followed rules, she said first off she would make phone calls to companies.
"Have a look at the system... did anyone break those rules? In some cases they kept the jobs for the term of the wage subsidy and then sacked them."
She admitted the policy for a new law was a "big call". "I reckon we could do it... but retrospective is never ideal."
Collins said she had no problem with Act leader Seymour in the Deputy Prime Minister role. "David Seymour is a principled person in my experience and he and I have worked together before. I'd rather have him any day than what Miss Ardern has had."

The gloves were off in the fiery, high-energy debate between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Collins last night.

The robust bout started off with tense questions on the Covid-19 outbreak, the economy, if the health system is racist, child abuse and housing but the pair appeared to relax as the debate wore on.
It came with commitments from both to look into Pharmac's funding decisions and ensure every school had gender neutral bathrooms available.
And it came with memorable, heated exchanges with Ardern directly asking Collins what her plan was for climate change and Collins shooting back: "What for, dear?" Later Collins admitted she thought Seymour would make an "excellent" Deputy Prime Minister in her government which was met with a "jeepers" from Ardern.
And Ardern finally admitted to having smoked cannabis "a long time ago" but continued her refusal to reveal how she was going to vote on the referendum.



But in the final quick-fire round Ardern and Collins found a lot of common ground with both wanting schools to have non-gendered bathrooms, not taxing sugar, making period products freely available in schools and putting a statue of Kate Sheppard in Parliament.

The ones out there doing the hardest yards are the small players the ones that won’t just not make it this election, but will not even come close?
It’s another failing or sadness of MMP.
Colin Craig, Graham Capill, Gareth Morgan: periodically a collection of slightly earnest, at times bewildered, but always passionate groups come along for an electoral crack, and every now and again some make enough noise to one, draw attention; two, make progress; and three, sometimes even look like they might be serious.
But this time round, no one is going anywhere or anywhere close.
Not only are we talking about most of the established small players being in trouble or heading for oblivion, the really small players aren’t even seeing the light of day
Is it Covid? Probably, but reality is reality, and with three weeks to go, no one has made any cut through, got any coverage, shown any form of relevance.
Is it time we looked at MMP? What’s the point of a system that works against what it was supposed to provide?
The other part of the equation is what happens when the parties that do get in and form a government. This has been our first true MMP coalition and you hardly call it a success, would you?
Forget whether you supported the parties or not, look at the workings of it.
You can credit the three parties for clearly having a large series of differences behind the scenes and keeping them relatively under control. Winston got through three years - almost - without ending up in a Shipley-Bolger type falling out.
But as soon as the vote was called and time was up, out came the bitching, back stabbing and finger pointing.
The stuff that wasn’t done, the stuff that was done that most didn’t agree on, the wastage, the expense, the endless compromise that leads to stagnation. And if not stagnation, a glacial pace of progress.
MMP was designed to see small parties flourish, it hasn’t done that.
It was designed to see checks and balances on bulldozer policy approach. Has it done that, or just stalled everything, watered it down to a relic of what it could or should have been?
NZ First gone, the Greens on the cusp. Conservatives, Advance, TOP, the Māori party all invisible, with ACT the only survivor for sure. If this was a report card on a system, it doesn’t read well, and is worth a C at best.

Australia’s states and territories have had an inconsistent approach to lifting border restrictions as community transmission eases across the country.
From midnight tonight, Queensland will allow travellers from 41 northern NSW suburbs to cross the border, but there is still no firm word on when the rest of the state will be welcomed back.
Western Australia has similarly refused to say exactly when non-essential interstate travellers will be allowed to come back, however yesterday it announced quarantine rules would be relaxed for some travellers who can enter with an exemption.










SOUTH AUSTRALIA
You can travel to South Australia from any Australian state or territory unless you’re coming from Victoria.
Travellers from NSW, Queensland, the ACT, the NT, WA and Tasmania can enter SA without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. But they still need to complete an online approval form.
Those coming from Victoria can only enter SA if they’re an essential traveller or live within 40km of the state’s border.
QUEENSLAND
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s hard border stance has been a hallmark of the pandemic.
Travellers from SA, WA, the NT or Tasmania can enter Queensland freely.
Residents in the ACT are also allowed into Queensland if they have a border declaration form stating they haven’t been in NSW or Victoria in the past 14 days.
Victorians – without an exemption – will be turned around at the airport if they fly into Queensland.
The situation with NSW is a little more confusing.
From Thursday, October 1, the state’s border bubble will be expanded to include Byron, Ballina, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Glen Innes.
Queenslanders will be able to visit these regions, and residents living in the more than 41 NSW postcodes will be able to apply for a border pass to travel into Queensland.
As for everyone else in NSW, a trip to Queensland means a 14-day stay in self-funded hotel quarantine.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
Travellers from COVID-affected areas in NSW are urged to reconsider their travel to the ACT, but are still allowed into the ACT without needing to quarantine.
Its border is only closed to Victoria, with anyone (other than ACT residents) travelling in from Victoria denied entry unless they’re granted an exemption by ACT Health.
Entry to the ACT from Victoria is only possible through Canberra Airport.
If you’re an ACT resident, you must notify ACT Health of your intention to return and must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival.






VICTORIA






Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) website declares that “no permit or approval is required to enter Victoria from another state – however, you will need to adhere to the restrictions and directions that are in place to slow the spread of coronavirus in Victoria”.
That means, if you’re heading to metropolitan Melbourne, you need to follow the rules of the step two of the capital’s lockdown exit plan. If you’re heading for regional Victoria, you’ll need to abide by step three of its lockdown exit road map.
Victorians have limited options travelling elsewhere. In order to enter another state or territory, they need to hold an exemption, be an essential worker or live along a state border.
NEW SOUTH WALES
The NSW border has been open to all states and territories since the beginning of the pandemic – except, since its second wave hit, Victoria.
Residents returning to NSW from Victoria are required to undergo two weeks of hotel quarantine.
As for people who live in one of the NSW/Victoria border towns, they’re not permitted to go further into NSW than the 50km border region.
“You’ll need to apply for a NSW resident’s permit to re-enter NSW (requiring a flight to Sydney Airport and...

Businesses are backing a safety-first approach, for a travel bubble with Australia.
An Australian taskforce has unveiled plans to allow New Zealanders in the country by November, and start lifting state border restrictions by early December.
But Jacinda Ardern says it may take longer for New Zealand to allow Australians here.
Trans-Tasman Business Circle general manager Sharron Lloyd told Mike Hosking businesses can't wait much longer.
But she says they also support waiting until health officials give it the all-clear.
LISTEN ABOVE

An exciting development for rescue services.
The UK's Great North Air Ambulance Service has successfully carried out a test flight, for a jet suit that would power medics to a mountain top in 90 seconds.
Run in the Lake District, Great North director of operations Andy Mawson told Mike Hosking his team's ecstatic with the results.
"It was incredible to see the jet suit zoom up the side of a mountain to a simulated casualty."
Mawson says the test went better than expected.
He says the jet suits would allow medics to safely cover steep ground quickly.
LISTEN ABOVE

The Minister responsible for the Serious Fraud Office says it doesn't lay charges lightly.
Two people have been charged with obtaining by deception after an SFO probe into the New Zealand First Foundation.
The New Zealand First party has been cleared of any wrongdoing but leader Winston Peters is taking the SFO to the High Court, saying it's abused its statutory powers.
Stuart Nash told Mike Hosking the SFO is a credible organisation.
They takes there jobs incredibly seriously, and they don't lay charges lightly.
Nash isn't sure where SFO investigations into two mayoral candidates are up to, saying he doesn't want to know what isn't out in the public arena yet.
Listen to the audio above as Stuart Nash and Mark Mitchell join Mike Hosking to discuss this, along with more issues making news this week.

Tell you who one of the biggest winners is this election, Rio Tinto. You reckon they worked all this to a plan?
The smelter was too expensive, they are closing it down unless the government write a cheque. The Labour Party, emboldened by the National Party, told them not one more cent. National told them not one more cent, after giving them $30 million.
When they came back Ardern said no. And she was not for turning, until, of course, she was.
It is a lesson, as far as I can work out, in a few things. Being big helps, pure economics doesn’t always work in regional New Zealand, and whatever it is you do, if you can be big in a small place the government will always pay the bills. All you need is a large workforce of locals who become reliant on you and a government that doesn't want to see a town or region decimated, especially not in election year.
New Zealand First, I think, was first out of the blocks with the plan. National came second, and Labour fell on its sword just the other day. They're all essentially offering the same thing, and they're all essentially making the same mistake.
Part of Rio Tinto's problem is the price of aluminium, which isn't the governments fault, but they have chosen to make it their problem. Part of it is the power companies are so reliant on a single client, so when the client looked like they were leaving they didn’t have the ability to shift the power north.
There is nothing wrong with Tiwai getting a good power deal. Big players get good deals on all sorts of things. Bulk buys discounts. But beyond that, we are now talking about manipulating the system.
Transpower is a monopoly, so they're now dragged in on transmission prices. Labour wants them to "help." What's that mean? Apart from manipulate the price, cost, or deal to favour Tiwai.
So, the question is, what's the cost of seeing a region damaged by an exit versus the cost of subsidising a business to have them stay? And the tricky bit is, once you're down the rabbit hole, can you ever extract yourself? No. Do you set a dangerous precedent? Yes.
And who's the big winner? The company that played the government like a fiddle.