The Missing Middle Podcast

Canada’s international student program is under fire and the numbers are hard to ignore.

In this episode, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down a shocking Auditor General report that uncovered major enforcement failures inside Canada’s immigration system. With over 153,000 potentially non-compliant students flagged and little follow-up from authorities, this isn’t just a bureaucratic slip-up. It raises serious questions about oversight, accountability, and trust.

Is this really about growing too fast, or did the government fail to enforce its own rules?

We dive into:

• The difference between a capacity problem vs. an enforcement problem
• Why thousands of fraud cases were never investigated
• How approval rates hit 98% in high-risk streams
• The impact on housing affordability and job markets
• What this means for public trust in Canada’s institutions
• And whether cutting immigration targets actually solves anything

This conversation unpacks how policy decisions ripple across the economy, and why fixing the system may require more than just lowering the numbers.

Chapters:

00:00 – Intro: Auditor General Report: The Big Findings

00:45 – Enforcement Failure

01:47 – “Deliberate and Scandalous” Fraud Handling

03:42 – What the Program Was Supposed to Do

04:34 – What It Became: Wage Suppression & Exploitation

05:24 – Housing Crisis Impact

07:45 – Only 40% Confirmed They Leave Canada

09:32 – The Case for Retroactive Enforcement

11:02 – Why Cutting Immigration Isn’t Enough

RESEARCH LINKS:

Auditor General Report on International Student Program (March 2025): https://www.canada.ca/en/auditor-general/our-work/audit-reports/auditor-general-report-2026-international-student-program-reforms.html

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Cities across Canada are backing away from upzoning. After agreeing to allow fourplexes and other missing middle housing, municipalities like Calgary, Toronto, Markham, and Windsor are scaling back — or reversing — reforms altogether. What’s behind the pushback, and are YIMBYs losing the as-of-right fight?

In this segment, we break down:

Why cities are rejecting upzoning after agreeing to it

What Calgary’s reversal means for housing reform

Why Edmonton is succeeding where others aren’t

The politics behind fourplex opposition

Whether provinces — not cities — should lead upzoning

What advocates should do next

Is this just a temporary backlash, or the beginning of a broader retreat from upzoning?

(Quick note from Cara: This was recorded before the first round ended. If the Oilers are already out at this release, I would like the record to show that I believed in them right up until the end, and that next year is our year!)

Chapters:
00:15 | The Housing Accelerator Fund and Refusal to Implement Changes
01:03 | GTA Holdouts: Oakville, Markham, and Toronto
02:04 | Calgary's Policy Reversal After Election
03:06 | Edmonton: Getting Infill Housing Right (8 Units As-of-Right)
04:11 | Debunking the Myths 
06:08 | The Policy Lesson: Working to Make Changes Stick
07:18 | The Path Forward: Debating Future Approaches 
15:29 | Winning Hearts and Minds: Focusing on Benefits 

Research/links:

Majority of Windsor council stands firm in fourplex decision, limits them to certain areas of the city
https://www.ctvnews.ca/windsor/article/majority-of-windsor-council-stands-firm-in-fourplex-decision-limits-them-to-certain-areas-of-the-city/

Fourplexes: A tale of two neighbouring communities
https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2024/04/fourplexes-a-tale-of-two-neighbouring-communities

2025: The year Edmonton built the missing middle
 https://www.jacobdawang.com/blog/2026/zbr-two-year-review/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

One year after Mark Carney’s stunning rise to power, how is his government actually performing?

In this episode, we break down the biggest political upset in recent Canadian history, from the collapse of a presumed Conservative victory to the Liberals’ unexpected dominance. Is Carney delivering where it counts?

We grade the government’s performance across the issues that matter most to Canadians:

The rising cost of living and inflation
The worsening housing affordability crisis
A fragile job market, especially for young Canadians
Canada’s high-stakes relationship with Donald Trump and the United States
Ongoing challenges in immigration policy and planning

Along the way, we explore why older voters have become a decisive political force, whether Canada is drifting toward a two-party system, and why there’s a growing disconnect between political popularity and real-world performance.

Is this government all talk, or are the foundations being laid for long-term success?

Chapters:

00:00 Intro: One Year After the Election, Carney’s More Popular Than Ever
00:00:30 Looking Back: How the Conservatives Lost a “Guaranteed” Win
00:02:13 The Senior Vote That Reshaped Canadian Politics
00:03:25 Grading the Government
00:04:36 Issue #1: Cost of Living
00:09:04 Issue #2: Economy & Jobs — Youth Employment Concerns
00:13:44 Issue #3: Trump, Trade & Canada–U.S. Relations
00:16:20 Issue #4: Immigration — Lack of Long-Term Plan
00:20:22 Issue #5: Housing Affordability — Mixed Progress
00:22:19 Ontario Housing Deals Change the Grade

Research:

https://x.com/DavidColetto/status/2043400016639983755/photo/1

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-lead-by-6-by-elections/ 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/liberals-open-double-digit-national-lead-over-conservatives-advance-elections 


The Hidden Job Market Crisis No One Is Talking About
https://youtu.be/UcTsszcmVbo?si=1o3ECKoYBZk5uDTn

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Climate change isn’t topping Canadians’ priority lists anymore, but that doesn’t mean people have stopped caring.

New polling shows only 13% of Canadians now rank climate change as a top personal issue, down sharply from 2019. With affordability, housing, and the economy dominating attention, it’s easy to think climate action has fallen off the radar.

But the data tells a more complicated story.

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt break down new surveys from Abacus Data and Ipsos showing Canadians still feel a moral obligation to act, are making more sustainable purchasing decisions, and want governments to do more, even as optimism declines and affordability pressures grow.

They also explore why climate messaging may be backfiring, how individual actions can feel too small to matter, and why smart housing policy could reduce both emissions and household costs.

In this episode:

- Why climate change dropped in Canadians’ priorities
- Whether affordability is crowding out climate action
- Who’s actually buying sustainable products
- Why Canadians still want government action
- The gap between individual effort and policy leadership
- How housing policy can lower costs and emissions

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction: Climate Action vs. Affordability Trade-off
00:22 The Worrying Drop in Climate Change as a Top Priority
01:20 Climate Engagement Remains Strong Despite Affordability Issues
02:23 Who Are the Conscious Consumers? Income, Age, and the Moral Obligation
03:25 Generational Views on Climate Hope and Hopelessness
04:45 Why Bother? The Feeling of Tiny Individual Efforts
05:57 Government Action: Massive Mandate vs. Lack of Clear Plan
07:38 Blending Environment and Finance: Smart Housing Policy Solutions

Research/links:
https://moreandbetterhousing.ca/2024/11/19/fourpathways/
https://angusreid.org/election-2019-climate-change/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Rents are finally falling across Canada. But will it last? 

In this episode of Classonomics, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down new data from the CMHC showing rising vacancy rates, record rental supply, and the first meaningful relief for tenants in years. They explore why an influx of new housing and slower population growth are pushing rents down, and what that reveals about how housing markets actually work.

But the conversation goes deeper: from the real impact of immigration on housing demand, to the heated debate over rent control and new policy changes in Manitoba that could reshape the market. Will government intervention protect renters, or make the housing shortage worse? And what happens next as Canada’s population growth slows and hundreds of thousands of new units come online? 

00:40–01:38: Introduction: Rent Control in Manitoba and the Risk to New Housing Supply

01:38–02:58: CMHC Report Findings and the Impact of Supply on Decreased Rents

02:58–03:46: The Link Between Immigration Policy and Housing Scarcity

03:46–04:27: Future Rental Market Forecast: Supply-Demand Mismatch

04:27–05:38: Developers' Investment Decisions Based on Future Immigration Targets

05:38–09:24: The Core Debate: Personal Experience, Stability, and Rent Control's Impact on Supply

09:24–10:26: Detailed Breakdown of Manitoba's Bill 13 Rent Control Expansion

10:26–12:36: Controversy Over Above Guideline Increases (AGI) and Renters' Need for Stability

12:36–15:14: Concerns Over Sustainability, Discouraging Investment, and Who Should Cover Landlord Costs

15:14–16:17: Final Thoughts on Bill 13 and Conversation Conclusion

Research/Links:

NDP plan to expand Manitoba rent control protections

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-residential-tenancies-changes-renters-9.7125916

Big rent hikes — a made-in-Manitoba problem

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/big-rent-hikes-a-made-in-manitoba-problem/

Rent control killing jobs: landlords

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2026/04/07/rent-control-killing-jobs-landlords

Bill 13 - THE RESIDENTIAL TENANCIES AMENDMENT ACT

https://web2.gov.mb.ca/bills/43-3/b013e.php

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Young Canadians are now less happy than seniors, and the gap is getting worse.

The latest World Happiness Report shows Canadians under 30 have fallen to 71st in the world for life satisfaction, while Canada’s overall ranking has dropped from 5th to 25th. In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern break down what’s driving the decline — from housing affordability and falling “option freedom” to expectations, social media, and why the drop is concentrated in countries like Canada, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia.

We also explain how the World Happiness Report actually works, why expectations matter as much as income, and what policy choices may be making young Canadians feel like they’re playing by a different set of rules.

Chapters

00:00 Intro: The U-Shape of Happiness and Midlife Crisis

00:51 Canada's New Phenomenon: Young Adults Are Less Happy

01:48 From 5th to 25th: Canada's Global Happiness Ranking

03:00 How Happiness is Measured: The Gallup Poll Ladder Question

04:43 The Fundamental Equation of Happiness: Expectations vs. Reality

06:11 Canada's Mixed Ratings: Inequality and "Option Freedom"

07:18 Social Media's Impact: Passive vs. Communication Platforms

08:50 The Real Solution: Fixing Middle Class Housing and Policy Choices

Research/links:

World Happiness Report 2026 | The World Happiness Report

https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2026/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Canada has a massive problem: our national productivity is near the bottom of the G7. Decades of government policies, from free trade to tax cuts, haven't worked.

Why? Because policymakers are focused on greed (incentives) and not enough on fear (competition and risk).

We dive into the core failure of Canadian economic policy, exposing how corporate welfare and easy access to foreign workers kill innovation. Plus, hear the shocking truth about why Canadian retailers won't stock products from homegrown businesses until they succeed in the U.S. first.

We discuss Charles Lamman’s critique and Don Drummond's "confessions" to find out how to fix Canada's risk-aversion crisis and finally push our economy forward.

Chapters:

00:00:00 | Defining Productivity: Real GDP per Hour Worked

00:01:42 | Canada's Long Decline: The Charles Lamman Critique

00:03:15 | Don Drummond’s Confessions: The Failure of Decades of Policies

00:04:14 | Red Tape: The Omission That Stops Building

00:04:51 | The Core Flaw: Too Much Greed, Not Enough Fear

00:06:46 | Corporate Welfare and the Temporary Foreign Worker Trap

00:08:01 | Canada’s National Risk Aversion: Why Retailers Look South

Research:

Labour productivity and related measures, by business sector industry, seasonally adjusted, fourth quarter 2025

Productivity is an urgent problem for Canada. The response? A 15-year study

Confessions of a Serial Productivity Researcher

Canada: Q4 Productivity Slips Under the Weight of Tariffs and Uncertainty

From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem

Eighteen ideas on how to kickstart the Canadian economy

What Is Canada’s Productivity Performance and How Does It Compare to Other Countries?*

Towards An Inclusive Innovative Canada

https://canada2020.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/020317-EN-FULL-FINAL.pdf

https://www.ft.com/content/b7e6996b-f896-4a45-aad3-d1068e88341a?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Out of Nowhere: How Canada Fell Behind Alabama

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

If birth rates are falling, is it really because people want fewer kids—or because they feel like they can’t afford them?

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt unpack the growing gap between “preference” and “choice” when it comes to starting a family. From the rising financial and social costs of raising children to the pressure of modern parenting norms, they explore why having kids today feels harder, even for people who say they want them. The conversation dives into everything from delayed careers and housing affordability to the hidden impact of social media, the “arms race” of parenting, and what we can learn from Quebec’s subsidized childcare experiment.

The big takeaway: there’s no single cause and no single fix. But if we want a society where people can truly choose the family size they want, we may need to rethink everything from childcare and housing to culture itself.

Research/links:

Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Rising Income Prerequisites of Parenthood – van Wijk and Billari (2024)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12624

Fertility Incentives in Canada: A Cohort Analysis – Lee and Liu (2024)
https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CLEF-075-2024.pdf

The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting – Mahler, Tertilt, and Yum, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2025)
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/5_Mahler_Tertilt_Yum_unembargoed.pdf

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries – Demography (2021)
https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/58/4/1373/174063/Not-

Just-Later-but-Fewer-Novel-Trends-in-Cohort
Workism and Fertility: The Case of the Nordics (2024)
https://www.aei.org/articles/workism-and-fertility-the-case-of-the-nordics/

The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility – Zhang et al. (2023)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10049131/
Fertility trends across the OECD: Underlying drivers and the role for policy: 

Society at a Glance 2024 | OECD
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility-trends-across-the-oecd-underlying-drivers-and-the-role-for-policy_770679b8.html

Why Americans Are Delaying Parenthood
https://www.prb.org/news/why-americans-are-delaying-parenthood/

Canada is among countries with an ‘ultra-low fertility’ rate. What is behind the drop?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/canada-is-among-countries-with-an-ultra-low-fertility-rate-what-is-behind-the-drop/

World Happiness Report 2026 | The World Happiness Report
https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2026/

She’s (Not) Having a Baby
https://www.cardus.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shes-Not-Having-a-Baby.pdf

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Are provincial governments raising your taxes in secret? 

Economist Mike Moffatt and columnist Sabrina Maddeaux expose the hidden mechanism of bracket creep, a stealth tax increase impacting millions of Canadians.

Because fixed-tax brackets in provinces like B.C., Manitoba, and Ontario fail to adjust for inflation, middle-class workers are automatically pushed into higher tax tiers, forcing them to pay taxes as though they are wealthy even though their purchasing power remains flat.

We dive into why this particularly clobbers income-dependent younger Canadians (Millennials and Gen Z) and how Ontario's outdated surtax thresholds, which can be triggered by an income of less than $110,000, are punishing effort and driving out-migration. More than just money, this quiet revenue tool lacks democratic accountability, eroding trust in institutions and revealing a tax code desperately in need of a full rethink.

Key Topics: Bracket Creep, Stealth Taxes, Tax Policy, Inflation, Middle Class, Ontario Surtax, Mike Moffatt, Sabrina Maddeaux, Canadian Politics, Economic Inequality, Tax Reform.

Chapters:

00:00 Bracket Creep and its Impact on Purchasing Power

02:32 The Accountability Issue: Why Stealth Tax Increases Matter

04:06 How Bracket Creep Hits Income Earners and the Generational Divide

06:17 The Problem with Ontario's Outdated Surtax Thresholds

08:36 Political Ramifications and the Erosion of Trust in Institutions

10:10 The Need for a Tax Code Rethink

Sabrina's National Post column (source document): Sabrina Maddeaux: Provinces are profiting from your inflationary pain | National Post

Canadian Taxpayers Federation report on Manitoba bracket freeze: Newsroom

Kelowna Capital News on BC bracket freeze revenue projections: Detailing B.C.’s tax changes in Budget 2026, including income tax increases | Kelowna Capital News

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes. 

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.

Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges

01:22 - Overview of HST Changes

01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates

02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers

05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception

07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?

09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform

10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees

11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?

12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit

14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts

Research/links:

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing

https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil