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Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up

(11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?

(20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate

(30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits

(39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending

(47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending

(50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!

(01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?

(01:07:51) When Recession?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.