The ACID Capitalist Podcast

The Soros Trade


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This week, the Acid Capitalist is restored to his spiritual home, Blanc Bleu and boy is The Alchemist on form ! He's dug up some ancient manuscripts from 2007 from the legend, James Dines, the original gold bull. The foolish reject what they see, the wise reject what they think and accept what they see. Except, the Acid Cap is about to do the unpardonable and reject the wisdom that defined his hedge fund career.

He's been looking at the Ruble. He refers to it dismissively as the Barney Rubble. The Barney has eliminated all of its losses since the shock of the unexpected military campaign against Ukraine.  Men in Suits are adamant that this marks a profound moment in economic history. That Vlad the Bad is Vlad the Economic genius.

The decision to peg to gold, a modern day gold standard, has many in the financial community proclaiming this as the moment Russia defeated the proxy economic war. But more than that, they claim it as a great pivot in history. Where Russia goes, we will follow. Huh??

The Acid Cap is having none of this. The screen price of the Barney is paint taping propaganda. It doesn't trade except by invitation. It's the preserve of the monetary authorities in Russia and those shameful nations that continue to dance with the Bear. Russian citizens certainly can't sell their Barneys, foreign nationals still holding Russian assets can't sell the rally and, heck, even Russian exporters must return their dollars to the kleptocracy.

A gold standard is feasible in Russia because they've defranchised their citizens but elsewhere, democracies rejected the rigours of gold a century ago. The Wizard of Oz captures this poignantly. In the 19th century it was the elites that determined the outcome of elections. The lion depicts the mighty William Bryan Jennings, the populist presidential candidate who ran 2x and lost. The elites robbed him of his courage...

Gold ain’t neutral. It favours the creditor over the debtor, forces the pain on the We, the People. With no vote, the people back then had to take it on the chin. When Treasury Secretart, Mellon, said purge the system of its rottenness in 1929, he was set to crucify the populace on the cross of gold. Thankfully, saner heads prevailed and the system was de-weaponised within 3 years but not before adult unemployment had surged beyond 20% and the banking sector had been bankrupted. The Capitalist loves gold as an investment, as a store of wealth,  but he love's the people more...

Zoltan, another monetary wizard, is discussed. He's one of the most influential financial seers. When he speaks, the whales of the market listen. He believes that the dollar's days are inevitably numbered, that the currency of China is set to supplant the global hedgemon of the $. The Capitalist is having none of it. But rather than bicker, he's established a magical line of clarity. Today, you need 6.3 yuan to buy a dollar. The yuan has been the strongest currency. If the yuan appreciates further, which is to say below 6, the Capitalist is ready to doth his cap to the mighty wizard and proclaim his own Muppetry. 

And finally, the fixed pegs of Hong Kong and Saudi are put under the spotlight. Nothing lasts forever and the days of Hong Kong's dollar peg seem fast running out. The capitalist describes how you can wager a billion dollar bet against the Honkers and your max loss would be $12m whereas your upside is unlimited. Future George Soros wannabes are lining up to take a shot. And just why should the Chinese authorities protect what they see as an anachorism from the past, a potent symbol of when China was poor ?

The Saudi? We might need to wait longer. But, he proclaims, the price of energy falls over the course of history, you want to be a long term consumer, not producer, the Saudi peg violates this rule, it will do a Honkers one day, just not yet. And remember, Joy is our Energy... 

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The ACID Capitalist PodcastBy Hugh Hendry

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