In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the recent escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Dr. Kennedy starts with laying out the current situation, as it was on April 14th when the podcast was recorded, with the Trump administration placing 145% tariffs on China and China retaliating with roughly 125 % tariffs on the United States. Dr. Kennedy notes that this level of escalation is not what many experts expected and explains that many in China believe that the U.S. is using the tariffs to drive the U.S. and China into economic war and to confront and isolate China on all dimensions. Further, he explains that during the first Trump administration, tariffs were used mainly as a negotiation tool, yet in Trump’s second term, it seems tariffs are being used in an attempt to remake the global economic architecture. Dr. Kennedy believes that the tariffs are working to boost China’s international image and the current turbulence in U.S. domestic politics has worked to change domestic opinion in China on the United States. At the same time, China is trying to cast itself as a more predictable international actor. Dr. Kennedy believes that at some point, there will be a deal between the U.S. and China that will lower or remove the reciprocal tariffs. However, this deal will likely be superficial and will not address the key problems in this bilateral relationship.

Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has been traveling to China for 37 years. His ongoing areas of focus include China’s innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of policy, popular, and academic venues, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Dr. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, which features voices from on the ground in China. From 2000 to 2014, Dr. Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business and was the founding academic director of IU’s China Office. Dr. Kennedy received a PhD in political science from George Washington University, an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a BA from the University of Virginia.