The World Unpacked

China’s new AI model, DeepSeek, has rattled markets and raised questions about the global AI race. Meanwhile, just before leaving office, the Biden administration introduced the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion—an ambitious new rule that could reshape how—and who—gets access to advanced AI technologies from the U.S. It is designed to regulate AI exports, strengthen partnerships with allies, and restrict adversaries’ access to advanced AI chips and models.

But with the Trump administration now in power, will this framework survive? The stakes are high: AI chips fuel cutting-edge technologies, and whoever controls them holds the keys to the future of advanced AI systems.

In this episode, Sophia Besch and Technology and International Affairs Fellow Sam Winter-Levy explore what Biden’s new AI framework aims to achieve, how DeepSeek might challenge U.S. AI dominance, and what we might expect from the Trump administration's with respect to AI exports. Will Washington double down on AI restrictions, or will Trump scrap Biden’s framework in favor of a new approach? And with China rapidly advancing, can the U.S. maintain its technological edge?

Notes:

1. Sam Winter-Levy, "The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 13, 2024.
2. Sam Winter-Levy, "With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread,"  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 13, 2025.
3. Matt Sheehan and Sam Winter-Levy, "Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28, 2025.
4. Leopold Aschenbrenner, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," June 2024.
5. Jeffrey Ding, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition, Princeton University Press (2024).
6. Benjamín Labatut, When We Cease to Understand the World, Pushkin Press and New York Review of Books (2021).

The Biden administration contends it has left the United States in a better geopolitical position than when it entered office four years ago. In a year-end foreign policy review from Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program, Director Chris Chivvis and Senior Fellow Stephen Wertheim critique Biden's foreign policy legacy and discuss what Trump might do next.

Why has it been so difficult for Biden to restrain Israel and succeed in Ukraine? What might a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal look like? How can the U.S. navigate toward a more stable U.S.-China relationship, despite entrenched beliefs that we are living through a second Cold War?

Join them for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing issues facing the United States and the world. 

Shownotes:

1. The Economist, Chris Chivvis: Talks Between Russia and Ukraine would Save Lives
2. Financial Times, Stephen Wertheim: It's Time for Europe's Magical Thinking on Defence to End 
3. The Guardian, Chris Chivvis: Admitting Ukraine to NATO Would be a mistake for both Ukraine and NATO  
4. Global Asia, Stephen Wertheim: Asia Should Encourage 'Trump the Peacemaker'
5. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, U.S. China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence

As we enter this new year of 2025, Sophia Besch sits down with President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Tino Cuéllar. They take a step back at the year and look at the big themes and trends that are likely going to determine and underlie the discussions of the year ahead, from technology to political economy, democratic governance, and global power dynamics.

Notes:

1. Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy, Ecco, 2008.
2. James C. Scott, Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed, Yale University Press, 1999.
3. Álvaro Enrigue, You Dreamed of Empires, Riverhead Books, 2024.

Over the past decade, China has emerged as a powerhouse here, producing  the majority of key clean energy technologies. What does this mean for the United States, and for the race towards net zero emissions? In this episode, Sophia Besch and Fellow Milo McBride talk about the strategies the U.S. could deploy to better compete in the clean energy revolution. They unpack how innovative technologies could not only help close the clean energy gap with China but also redefine America’s role in the global energy landscape. They also explore how the incoming Trump administration might approach the U.S.-China race for clean energy dominance—and what all of this means for American allies abroad.

Notes: 

1. Milo McBride, "Catching Up or Leaping Ahead? How Energy Innovation Can Secure U.S. Industrial Stature in a Net-Zero World," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 19, 2024.
2. Jonas Nahm, Collaborative Advantage: Forging Green Industries in the New Global Economy (Oxford University Press, 2021).

Credits:

• Host: Sophia Besch
• Executive Producer & Audio Engineer: Heewon Park
• Videographer: Cameron Zotter

What can the elections of 2024 tell us about the state of democracy worldwide? This year has seen a flurry of elections across democracies, sparking debate among analysts about their implications for global democratic health. 

As the year draws to a close, Sophia sits down with Thomas Carothers, Director of the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at Carnegie and leading expert on democracy and international politics. Their conversation unpacks key theories like the "bonfire of incumbents," and explores the narratives shaping our understanding of this pivotal election year. 

1. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point, (Crown, 2023).
2. Thomas Carothers, "Three Conclusions from the Global Year of Elections," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 18, 2024.

Host: Sophia Besch

Executive Producer & Audio Engineer: Heewon Park

Videographer: Cameron Zotter

Our modern global trading system is broken. How can we fix it?

We seem to have moved beyond the free trade consensus of the globalization era. Few politicians today still publicly support the assumption that trade, unrestricted by national borders, makes everyone more prosperous. Under President Trump, the United States has wielded tariffs and industrial policy to reshape the international trade order to better serve American interests, and the Biden administration has upheld and doubled down on many of these. But these interventions do not yet add up to a new trade policy consensus.

This week's episode dives into a provocative new argument: in order to achieve freer trade, the world needs more trade interventions. What is global trade policy doing wrong? What new trade rules are needed to create a system that both harnesses the benefits of free trade and preserves nations' freedom to direct their economies? And what policy interventions might help foster this future of freer trade? Sophia discusses these questions and more with Michael Pettis, a nonresident Senior Fellow for Carnegie China and expert on China's economy.

1. Michael Pettis and Erica Hogan, "Trade Intervention for Freer Trade," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 3, 2024.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the future of the transatlantic alliance hangs in the balance.

Europe Inside Out's new host Rym Momtaz is joined by Sophia Besch and Christopher Shell to unpack the reasons behind his victory and its implications for EU-U.S. relations.

Original episode page on Europe Inside Out here.

What if the future of global power dynamics and, the question of winners and losers in the US-China competition could hinge on one body of water – the Indian Ocean? As geopolitical tensions rise and great powers vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific, the Indian Ocean is emerging as an increasingly critical theater of international relations.

What is clear is that U.S.-China tensions are heightening the strategic importance of maritime security. How are these dynamics changing the geopolitical environment of the Indian Ocean? How are island nations responding to the increased interest in their regional waters, and how will they shape great power competition more broadly? Sophia Besch and nonresident scholar Darshana Baruah discuss these questions and more in this week's episode.

Notes

1. C. Raja Mohan, Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).
2. Darshana Baruah, The Contest for the Indian Ocean: And the Making of a New World Order (Yale University Press, 2024).

Why is meaningful change in U.S. foreign policy is so difficult to achieve? This question is especially relevant with the U.S. presidential election just weeks away now, and analysts and policy makers all over the world are discussing how a Trump or Harris presidency might shift American foreign policy in the years to come.

But how likely is it that we will see meaningful change at all? Historically, it has been incredibly challenging for presidential administrations to break away from entrenched foreign policy paths —even when the need for change seems obvious. Presidencies often start with a declaration of pivots and major strategic reorientation, these then get ground down by powerful bureaucracy, political pressures and human tendency to preserve the status quo. When change does happen, leaders often pay a high political price for it. Take, for instance, the example of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the end, it took two decades and much internal pushback before President Biden was able to officially make this happen - even though the decision had long had significant public support. 

In this week's episode, Sophia Besch sits down with Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim to discuss their research that dissects how strategic foreign policy change does happen despite pressures to maintain the status quo—and  what it would take for the next American president to enact such a change.

Notes:

1. Christopher S. Chivvis et al., Strategic Change in U.S. Foreign Policy, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 24, 2024.
2. Stephen Wertheim, "How Kamala Harris Should Put America First—for Real," New York Times, October 21, 2024.
3. Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, "America's Foreign Policy Inertia: How the Next President Can Make Change in a System Built to Resist It," Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024.
4. Rebecca Friedman Lissner, "Wars of Revelation: The Transformative Effects of Military Intervention on Grand Strategy," Oxford University Press, 2021.

Following Sunday's controversial presidential election, Kais Saied has secured his second term in office. While this result was widely anticipated, it raises deeper questions about the trajectory of Tunisia's democracy. Tunisia was once seen as the shining success of the Arab Spring – a beacon of democratic hope. But now, like several of its neighbors, it finds itself grappling with rising authoritarianism, weakened institutions, and disillusioned voters.

Today, we’re not just looking at Tunisia’s election results, but also exploring what these trends tell us about the state of democracy in the wider region. How did Tunisia arrive at this point in its democratic trajectory? What does this mean for the future of political reform, governance, and stability in North Africa and beyond? 

In this episode, Sophia Besch discusses these questions and more with Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program and expert on Tunisia’s political and economic reforms.

Notes: 

1. Sarah Yerkes, "How Tunisia's President Has Used the Law to Secure His Election Victory," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 24, 2024.