Top Traders Unplugged

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• The outlook for inflation
• Achieving high performance consistently
• How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly
• Mean variance optimisation
• Whether this time is different
• Selecting the right manager
• Simplifying complexity for better understanding

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world

04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets

06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund

08:14 - Performing above expectations

09:38 - The current outlook for inflation

11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation

13:57 - Fixed income versus real assets

14:51 - Categorising asset classes effectively

19:56 - The limits of mean variance optimisation

21:59 - Using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making

24:09 - Whether this time really is different

25:25 - Difficulties in the manager selection process

28:35 - Choosing between macro and systematic investors

30:08 - The pitfalls of investing with macro traders

32:40 - Investing in a manager who includes crypto in their portfolio

34:34 - Allocating between systematic and discretionary managers

36:45 - How to screen for a good money manager

40:44 - How to respond when a manager is underperforming

43:48 - Process over outcome

47:04 - Working with consultants

52:27 - Lessons from a leadership coach

57:00 - Simplifying complex ideas for better communication 

01:00:28 -Advice for aspiring allocators

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• How Trend Following differs to momentum
• Avoiding the need to make predictions
• The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
• ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
• The similarities between Trend Following and options
• How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
• Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
• The “Moscow Rules"

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02  – Macro recap from Niels

04:39 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?

28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 

42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?

47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum

01:00:58 – Molecules of prices

01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’

01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Ever-changing market correlations
• Strategic asset allocation
• Responding to interest rate changes
• Achieving utility maximisation
• Mean variance analysis
• Portfolio diversification
• Treasury bonds
• High performance teams
• Simplifying complexity

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

09:39 - Current view on the markets

13:37 - How to position portfolios for the year ahead and beyond

18:41 - The current outlook for equities and the sectors within

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

27:04 - Approaches to strategic asset allocation

33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation

37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis

41:49 - Using scenario analysis

47:41 - Distributions during different market regimes

55:12 - How to properly diversify a portfolio

58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds

01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams

01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’

01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the world
• How Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environment
• Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
• How managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing markets
• The viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forward
• Why a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:36 - Macro recap from Niels

05:29 - Weekly review of returns

09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets

18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment

25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio

36:12 - The future of the 60 / 40 portfolio

46:53 - Some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s Allocator Series

52:43 - Why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following

01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Better education around capital allocation
• Allocating capital throughout various market cycles
• How to define an ‘alternative investment’
• How actively we should manage a portfolio
• Traditional versus alternative investments
• The difficulties in the manager selection process
• Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator
• Difficult conversations with clients
• Advice for aspiring capital allocators

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Phil on Twitter.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:44 - How 2022 has been for allocators so far

03:13 - Phil Huber’s journey into investing

05:46 - Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation

09:00 - The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with

12:07 - The 60 / 40 portfolio and how it became so popular

18:49 - Adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles

22:37 - Defining ‘alternative investments’

30:27 - Choosing which strategies to invest in, and when to choose these strategies

37:45 - The extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed

39:36 - Traditional versus alternative investments

40:04 - The challenges of manager selection

49:51 - Cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator

53:09 - The importance of courage

54:55 - Managing difficult conversations with clients

01:01:68 -Advice for aspiring asset allocators

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Letting winners run and cutting losses early
• Using 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signals
• Redefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’
• Howard Marks’ opinion on following price
• Achieving effective risk parity within a portfolio
• How endogenous outliers are hard to predict

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:44 – Macro recap from Niels

05:24 – Weekly review of performance

11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following

24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules

43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio

51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers

01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’

01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:01 A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• How market behaviour is often intertwined
• Why Cem chose to manage outside capital
• The thinking behind institutional market moves
• How the global pandemic affected markets
• Dealer flows
• Feedback loops
• Delta hedging

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work

19:18 - The decision to manage outside money

24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make

30:22 - Feedback loops within markets

34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options

51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods

53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models

57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging

01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices

01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the S&P 500

01:10:09 -The feedback loop between inflation, deflation and central bank rate policies

01:20:01 -Whether or not there is an asymmetry between deflation and inflation risk

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performance
• The benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframes
• Howard Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action only
• The status of the commodity markets
• Hedges against inflation
• Creating the perfect portfolio using Trend Following
• Trend Following versus ‘trend chasing’

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:36 – Macro recap from Niels

06:22 – Weekly review of performance

15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?

41:24 – Making predictions on commodities and inflation

50:27 – How Fed policy affects the Trend Following environment

01:04:18 – The re-emergence of longer-term terms

01:13:43 – Benchmark performance update

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• How quantum physics relates to financial markets
• The mechanics behind price impacts
• David’s new book, coming out soon
• The magical characteristics of money
• The power and unpredictability of sentiment
• Weather and how it relates to financial markets
• Central bank money creation and how effective it can be
• Cognitive interference

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting?

04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?

07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?

12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?

17:41 - Can you explain how quantum physics relates to financial markets?

23:15 - Can you give a couple of examples of cognitive interference?

28:00 - Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?

42:28 - Can you talk about your new book, and what the title means?

45:24 -Does Modern Monetary Theory relate to the quantum physics analogy of something being created from nothing?

52:30 - Do you believe that money creation by central banks is unsustainable?

57:28 - Would you say that your work implies that minor tweaks to the framework are inadequate when it comes to the economy and investing?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

In this episode, we discuss:

• Spotting patterns among previous outliers
• Simplicity over complexity
• How little the news really moves markets
• Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'
• The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:19 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:41 – Macro recap from Niels

04:13 – Weekly review of performance

11:14  – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?

17:22  – Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?

21:24  – Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?

24:14  – Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?

29:07  – Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management? 

32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’

38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers

01:01:53 – Efficient market hypothesis versus adaptive market hypothesis

01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?

01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update

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