Top Traders Unplugged

By Niels Kaastrup-LarsenBusiness News Investing Business News

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Top Traders Unplugged episodes

August 25, 2019 SI50: Why great investing is counter-intuitive to Human Nature
Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to Human Nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios. Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors? Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ actually true? How important is it to have access to vast amounts of data? How much capital is needed to operate a profitable & diversified Trend Following portfolio? What questions should Investors be asking Fund Managers? Do we use Volume as part of our strategies?
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Macro recap from Niels
02:40 – Weekly review of performance
07:45 – Voicemail from Sam
10:15 – Top tweets
44:20 – Question 1: George; With small AUM, should traders/investors outsource TF?
01:04:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
01:05:00 – Questions 2/3: James; What are the most misunderstood parts of TF? What questions should investors be asking?
01:19:50 – Questions 4/5: James; Do you look at volume or just price? If correlations pick up, do you alter your system?
01:22:45 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 26 min
August 19, 2019 SI49: Morgan Housel's universal laws of investing and the importance of investor behaviour
Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute? Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements? What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – Macro recap from Niels
03:40 – Weekly review of performance
08:30 – Top tweets
59:30 – Question 1: Craig; If less TF market participants exist, shouldn’t trends be slower and more random on ST horizons?
01:12:45 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
01:13:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:00 – Challenge to Sam to record the first message
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 18 min
August 10, 2019 SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance
This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:45 – Macro recap from Niels
03:25 – Weekly review of performance
12:20 – Top tweets
34:40 – Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio?
43:00 – Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification?
53:15 – Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures.
58:10 – Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)?
01:03:00 – Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use?
01:08:40 – Benchmark performance update
01:09:40 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 13 min
August 05, 2019 SI47: Don't fall in Love with your positions
This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison when gauging Trend Following performance? Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies? Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Request for podcast reviews
02:45 – Macro recap from Niels
06:45 – Weekly review of performance
08:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
09:50 – Top tweets
44:30 – Question 1: Sandeep; Please discuss market correlations.
49:40 – Questions 2/3: James; When adding new markets to a system, what are you looking for? How do you calculate trend strength?
01:00:30 – Question 4: Dante; What strategy should one use in high volatility periods?
01:04:30 – Question 5: Ali; How do you pick the markets in your system?
01:09:20 – Question 6: Ali; Will Jerry please discuss how he trades single stocks
01:13:00 – Question 7: Ali; Can you recommend a broker?
01:14:15 – Question 8: Ali; Please discuss margin to equity and position sizing
01:18:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 22 min
July 31, 2019 BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis
When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors. Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering. Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful. So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
16 min
July 29, 2019 SI46: Are commodities more risky to trade than equities?
This week, we discuss whether commodities are more risky to trade than equities, if a stocks-only Trend Following strategy can be profitable in the long run, if a deep drawdown is worse than a long drawdown, and the importance of over-estimating any possible drawdowns implied by a backtest. Questions answered include: should all Trend Following funds be required to provide Crisis Alpha? Is there ever a good time to override your system and trade outside of the rules? Should you always execute trades from your signals immediately, or wait for an extra confirmation sometimes? Is there an edge to be gained from seeking the perfect entry into a long-term trade? How many positions should you have open at any one time? What can be considered a good amount of leverage?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Request for podcast reviews from listeners
02:15 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels
07:50 – Weekly review of performance
12:50 – Top tweets
58:50 – Questions 1/2/3: James; Why don’t you like the original Turtle system? What systems do you prefer? Regarding entries/exits, do you prefer executing intraday, on close, etc.?
01:06:20 – Question 4: James; What is the average leverage in your portfolio and how many positions do you hold at any one time?
01:12:30 – Benchmark performance update
01:14:00 – Discussion of Salem Abraham decision to revamp his business away from a classic CTA Trend Following shop
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 18 min
July 23, 2019 BO25: Un-Learning, Keeping an Open Mind & The Legacy of AHL
It has been said that: ‘The biggest room of all, is the room for improvement’, and one thing that is clear to see in the amazing careers of today’s guests, is the continued hunger for learning in the quest for an improved investment process. This has led to an unprecedented success for this trio. Today, I share the last key insights from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we don’t just discuss the importance of learning… but also how you must un-learn certain things in order to move forward. Lastly, we discuss what the three of them wish the legacy of AHL will be. So, sit back and relax and enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
14 min
July 21, 2019 45 The Systematic Investor Series – July 21st, 2019
In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Request for podcast reviews from listeners
2:30 - Intro/Macro recap from Niels
3:30 - Weekly review of returns
6:30 - Discussion of Ray Dalio article
10:00 - Jerry’s highlights for the week
12:15 - Discussion of paper on TF speeds
27:00 - Top tweets
58:30 - Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit?
1:06:00 - Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without pain/fear if you deeply believe in your approach?
1:14:15 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 18 min
July 21, 2019 SI45: Ray Dailo's paradigm shift and Gold as a safe-haven
In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:30 – Macro recap from Niels
03:30 – Weekly review of performance
06:30 – Discussion of Ray Dalio article
10:00 – Jerry’s highlights for the week
12:15 – Discussion of paper on TF speeds
27:00 – Top tweets
58:30 – Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit?
01:06:00 – Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without pain/fear if you deeply believe in your approach?
01:14:15 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 18 min
July 17, 2019 Best of TTU – The Importance of Asset Allocation & Patience
In 1987, 3 scientists, 1 from Cambridge and 2 from Oxford, were brought together by their shared passion for the markets and for computers. Little did they know, that over the next 3 decades, this passion would lead them to build 3 world-leading multi-billion dollar Systematic Investment businesses. Today, I would like to share another Golden Nugget with you, from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we focus on how markets and the importance of Asset Allocation have evolved since the beginning; a crucial insight into what has made them so successful. So enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 11.
The World's Biggest Neuron Network
Niels: Historically, at least, the role price of a market has been the only input in systematic models, certainly in the trend following space. The universe of markets have also been very well defined, being highly liquid, exchange traded, like futures on CME. Tell me, how have you evolved when it comes to the data you use and the markets you trade?
David: We trade a lot of equities and we use a lot of other data sources, basically.
Niels: What could they be?
David: You got me there. (Laughter)
Most of the risk is on endogenous variables like price, intra-relationships between markets, and various convolutions of price, sectors, and this sort of thing. Obviously, we have all the balance sheet data, all the fundamental data, all the weather data, there are all sorts of different types of data. We have a lot of experimental systems with small amounts of money on them. I expect we have one or two bigger allocations with key data inputs, but those I'm keeping to myself.

Niels: What about you Marty? Are you looking in new directions when it comes to data and markets? Maybe I can follow-up because that's my next point I want to ask, is about are you also moving off the exchange? What's the motivation for doing that and what are the risks you have to take into account if indeed you are?

Marty: Well, so the first question is data and the evolution of the trading programs. Of course, we have an appetite for new ideas, new influences on markets, new effects. As David says, "If we knew what the next big thing was we wouldn't tell you and it wouldn't be research." I think there's a lot of hype these days with machine learning techniques and all this just explosion of new data sources that surely the answer is in there somewhere. If you just leave it to the folks at Google the answer will become immediately apparent. My view is it's a little bit harder than that. There's plenty of work to be done and there's plenty of opportunities. So, I'm not going to claim that we've got some fantastic new system that employs satellite data and engages recursive neural net and presto we know what's happening tomorrow and next week.

'I think all three of us have a healthy paranoia around operating in the markets, and that comes from the real experiences of thinking it was safe when it wasn't safe.'

So, no, it is overhyped. On the other hand, it is there. That data exists and there's more information out there than there's ever been, ever. You need to work out how to assimilate, how to digest and how to use that stuff.
David: One of the things that experience has taught all of us is danger of hindsight bias or over fitting to data sets. You saw this recently in a rich data set, or maybe 5 or 6 years ago. This Google Trends is a huge and rich new data set, obviously, a vast amount of data using Google's algorithm which forecasts when there are going to be flu epidemics. It made the front page of all the newspapers. It made the BBC News.

25 min