Top Traders Unplugged

By Niels Kaastrup-LarsenBusiness News Investing Business News

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Top Traders Unplugged episodes

June 23, 2019 SI41: Bitcoin's recent rally and benefits of trading single stocks
On today’s episode, we give our thoughts on the recent Bitcoin rally, the possible benefits of trading single stocks rather than indices, how spending less time looking at the markets can benefit your Trading, and we also offer some other suggestions for better Trading Discipline. Questions answered this week include: what are the main characteristics of a successful Trader? How often should you change your parameter combinations? How short-term did The Turtles trade, and how does that compare to Jerry’s Trading style today? What is the definition of long-term Trading, and should CTAs be more longer-term in their strategies?
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 34 min
June 16, 2019 40 The Systematic Investor Series ft Corey Hoffstein – June 16th, 2019
This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk', why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Corey on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 @MoritzSeibert, & @choffstein
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
• 00:00 - Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED
• 05:35 - Weekly review
• 08:50- Corey describes his background
• 22:00 - Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When
• 35:10 - Question: How do you know when your model is broken?
• 42:15 - Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?
• 52:00 - Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!
• 56:50 - Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?
• 1:01:20 - Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?
• 1:06:45 - Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.
• 1:17:40 - Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?
• 1:21:20 - Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out...unlike most other things in life?
• 1:27:00 - Question: Do you think past performance is a guide?
• 1:29:15 - Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value?
• 1:33:00 - Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally?
• 1:36:50 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 41 min
June 16, 2019 SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein
This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED
05:35 – Weekly review of performance
08:50 - Corey's journey
22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When
35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken?
42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?
52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!
56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?
01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?
01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.
01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?
01:21:20 – Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out…unlike most other things in life?
01:27:00 – Question: Do you think past performance is a guide?
01:29:15 – Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value?
01:33:00 – Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally?
01:36:50 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 41 min
June 11, 2019 Best of TTU – You Don’t Need To Be A Genius If You Can Stick To A Plan
In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget. Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89 and Episode 90.
The Hindrance of Human Instinct
Rob: ...So I’m genuinely interested in educating people and trying to explain to them that they need to be more realistic. That’s a completely different market place from where you are trying to compete with people who are trying to make the most outlandish claims to stand out from the pack of people making similar outlandish claims.
Niels: I agree with that completely. I think it is evident from reading your book that, that is the fundamental motivation. Now you touched already upon the point about the flawed human brain in your book, and you end up talking a little bit about some of the temptation of taking profits early and letting our losses run, and that’s really how we as human beings are wired. Tell me a little bit more about that and what it really means when it comes to trading if you get this balance the wrong way around so to speak, and what you found when you test this kind of human behavior if I can call it that.
Rob: So the natural human instinct when you see a position rise in price and you're long, is to say… is to want to take a profit. And this comes down to essentially that kind of strong feeling and you want to kind of lock that in. And the reason you want to lock that in is that you want to prove that you are right. It’s the overwhelming human emotion to prove that you are doing the right thing and it’s called confirmation bias in the literature. Now when its stocks falling, if you sell a loss, then you’re going to be proving that you are wrong and nobody wants to do that. So what you actually then want to do is hang onto that position and hope it goes up in value. And as it keeps falling of course you have the same conversation with yourself until you’re forced to sell and perhaps because you’ve run out of money.

So it’s really about the way the human brain is treating unrealized losses and unrealized losses differently. We are thinking about them differently. Even though they’re exactly the same. And you know this kind of mindset that it’s not a profit until you’ve sold it and it’s not a loss until you’ve taken the loss. It’s completely wrong.
Now it’s very easy to think about a sort of pattern of price where it would actually make sense to buy on a small profit, and that would be if the market was trading in a small range. Now the problem is that most of the time markets don’t do that they trend. This isn’t the time for that kind of theological argument about whether trend following is a good thing or a bad thing.

'...even in the large institutions that trade systematically, you still have debates about whether we should override the system, or cut the system's risk because of something that is going on in the world.'

Certainly in the past people like Winton have done tests over hundreds of years of data where it is available, and markets have in the past exhibited a behavior where they’re trending. So if markets are going to trend and this behavior where you’re going to sell at a small profit and cut only when you’ve got a huge loss is exactly the wrong thing to do. You should do exactly the opposite of that, which is what a trend following system will do....
22 min
June 11, 2019 BO22: You don’t need to be a Genius if you can Stick to a Plan
In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget. Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
22 min
June 09, 2019 39 The Systematic Investor Series – June 9th, 2019
Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Intro
2:55 - Weekly review
11:50 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
13:00 - Top tweets
45:00 - Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF
52:20 - Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article
56:10 - Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility
57:00 - Discussion of FT article on South Korea
1:00:00 - Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF strategy?
1:08:00 - Performance recap
1:09:00 - Next week’s special guest is Corey Hoffstein
Subscribe on:
1 hr 13 min
June 09, 2019 SI39: How to trade the VIX and do Trend Followers have an edge?
Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:55 – Weekly review of performance
11:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
13:00 – Top tweets
45:00 – Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF
52:20 – Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article
56:10 – Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility
57:00 – Discussion of FT article on South Korea
01:00:00 – Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF strategy?
01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:09:00 – Next week’s special guest is Corey Hoffstein
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 13 min
June 06, 2019 Best of TTU – Trading for a Living
The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned, and usually the hard way.  For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions. In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to.  So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be ideal for this.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89.
A Solution For Avoiding Irrational Decisions
Niels:  I can’t think of a better way to kick things off then by setting the scene, and you reading a little bit of the book in order for people to get a sense of your writing style which I very much enjoy. So I would kindly ask you maybe to read a little bit of the preface and then a little bit of the introduction to the book, if you don’t mind.
Rob: Sure.  “I’m very bad at making financial decisions. Like most people I find it difficult to manage my investments without becoming emotional and behaving irrationally. This is deeply irritating, as I consider myself to be very knowledgeable about finance. I’ve voraciously read the academic literature, done my own detailed research, spent 20 years investing my own money, and nearly a decade managing funds for large institutions. So in theory, I know what I’m doing. In practice, when faced with a decision to buy or sell a stock, things go wrong. Fear and greed wash through my mind, clouding my judgement. Even if I spend weeks researching a company, it’s still hard to click the trade button on my broker’s website. I have to stop myself buying or selling on a whim. Based on nothing more than random newspaper articles or an anonymous blogger's opinion, but then, like you, I’m only human.

Fortunately, there is a solution. The answer is to fully, or partly, systematize your financial decision making. Creating a trading system removes the emotion and makes it easier to commit to a consistent strategy. I spent many years managing a large portfolio of trading strategies for a systematic hedge fund. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the opportunity to develop and trade systems to look after my personal portfolio. But after leaving the industry, I’ve been able to make my own trading process entirely systematic resulting in significantly better performance.”
I will now read from the Introduction.

"But I hesitated, everything had happened as expected. I should go ahead and buy, but what if this was wrong, what if the financial industry really was imploding as everyone else seemed to think?"

“It was the 23rd of January in 2009 and I was in my London office. Although I had a desk overlooking the Thames, I was usually too busy to appreciate the view. My day job was managing a portfolio of systematic trading strategies for a large hedge fund. But right now I was focusing on my own bank balance. Data was about to be released indicating how the UK colony had performed in the last three months of 2008. It would be bad news, the official confirmation that we were in recession, but nobody knew how bad. This didn’t mean extra work for me however, since a bank of computers would adjust our clients’ portfolios automatically when the news arrived.
So I decided to devote some rare free time to trade my own money. With a stressful fulltime job, I was not a particularly active trader. But very occasionally,
17 min
June 06, 2019 BO21: Trading for a Living
The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned, and usually the hard way. For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions. In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to. So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be ideal for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.
Listen to the full episode here.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
17 min
June 02, 2019 38 The Systematic Investor Series – June 2nd, 2019
This week, we discuss the importance of process over outcome, how sports can be related to Trading, and whether mistakes are to be avoided completely or something we should look forward to learning from. Questions answered this week include: is Ray Dalio’s suggestion of 15 uncorrelated return streams the ultimate way to diversify your portfolio? Are some markets more tradable for Trend Followers than others? Is market ‘noise’ making it harder for Trend Followers, or is the volatility a good thing? How do you deal with strategic retirement decisions as a Trend Follower? Is it in a Hedge Fund’s best interests to stay relatively small and private?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
00:00 - Intro
02:30 - Weekly review
10:15 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19
11:30 - Top tweets
40:30 - Question 1: Jack; When/how do you decide to change a losing TF system?
49:20 - Question 2: Werner; How do you decide not to add a specific market to a TF system?
57:15 - Question 3: Sam; Should investors decrease risk as they near retirement?, and if so...How?
1:24:30 - Discussion of noise vs volatility paper by Michele Cocchiglia & Stefan Martinek of Kelonia Capital Management: Deconstructing Noise - A closer look at the notion of noise, its definition and potential impact in today's market environment.
1:29:00 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 33 min