Top Traders Unplugged

By Niels Kaastrup-LarsenBusiness News Investing Business News

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Top Traders Unplugged episodes

May 12, 2019 SI35: The journey from managing personal money to external clients
Today, we discuss how to go from managing personal money to third-party money, in this current regulatory environment. We clear up some confusion surrounding the VIX market, touch on stocks vs commodities & how they affect on Trend Following strategies differently, as well as how to avoid a single driver from overly correlating your portfolio. We also answer the questions: how do you define long-term versus short-term? Did Richard Dennis’s Turtles ever add to winning positions? Are CTAs underrepresented at investing conferences, and are investors losing out by only choosing the most common names?
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 26 min
May 05, 2019 34 The Systematic Investor Series – May 6th, 2019
In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Intro
1:50 - Weekly review
8:45 - Top tweets
37:30 - Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility?
45:50 - Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models?
53:05 - Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance?
1:02:15 - Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness?
1:22:45 - Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)?
1:30:15 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 34 min
May 05, 2019 SI34: Can Central Banks and policies prevent trends in the future?
In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
08:45 – Top tweets
37:30 – Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility?
45:50 – Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models?
53:05 – Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance?
01:02:15 – Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness?
01:22:45 – Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)?
01:30:15 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 34 min
May 02, 2019 25 Top Traders Round Table with John Fidler, Jonathan Miles, and Christopher Vogt – 2of2
"Over the years, I have allocated to a lot of short term CTAs… but due to the alpha decay factor to short-term models, not really made any money from it." - John Fidler (Tweet)
Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors.

Subscribe on:

In This Episode, You'll Learn:

Why John and Jonathan don't spend much time looking at short-term CTAs
How fee compression has changed management fees over the last decade
When our guests choose discretionary over systematic managers
The role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn't call them alternatives

"I would urge people to be cynical, and what I mean by that is Wall Street is about product creation, not about performance." - Christopher Vogt (Tweet)

Why Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynical
Why in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thing
The most important decisions in Jonathan's work, and why they aren't necessarily financial decisions
Why many people's view of model risk can hurt them and their investments
Why macro strategies will always remain strong

This episode was sponsored by:

Links Mentioned:

The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios

Connect with our guests:
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
"Everybody understands management and incentive fees. Let's just set it in such a way that investors feel it's fair." - Jonathan Miles (Tweet)
31 min
May 02, 2019RT25: Alpha decay in Short-Term strategies ft. John Fidler, Jonathan Miles & Christopher Vogt – 2of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
Why John and Jonathan don’t spend much time looking at short-term CTAs
How fee compression has changed management fees over the last decade
When our guests choose discretionary over systematic managers
The role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn’t call them alternatives
Why Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynical
Why in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thing
The most important decisions in Jonathan’s work, and why they aren’t necessarily financial decisions
Why many people’s view of model risk can hurt them and their investments
Why macro strategies will always remain strong

-----

Links Mentioned:
The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Connect with our guests:
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
31 min
April 30, 2019 Best of TTU – How to Test a Model Over Decades of Data
I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years. So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following with Alex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website. We also discussed how they conducted their research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest. I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42.
Return of the Trend: 'It's all about Correlation'
Niels: I had a question the other day from someone here based in Switzerland, Roman, in fact, and he asked about people's perception about Trend Following that perhaps it's performed poorly in the last couple of years because there's been too much money chasing Trend Following after the great year of 2008. When you hear something like that, what comes to mind?
Katy: Well, I actually just wrote an article which is coming out for Eurex on this exact topic, and I call it Return of the Trend: It's All About Correlation. I'll just give you a view on this. If you look at a Trend Following system, any portfolio system in general, we depend on correlation. We depend on the diversification across markets, and regardless of looking at the capacity in the industry, not even thinking about that, if you take a graph of correlations pre in the last twenty years, it almost looks like a step function. So up until 2008 the correlations are pretty low across all futures markets, and they just shot through the roof in 2008 and they stayed there until earlier this year, or until late 2013. If you think about portfolio construction, the returns of Trend Following is driven by divergence and we've had some divergence over this period of time: quantitative easing, all sorts of events like the nuclear meltdown in Japan, those are diversion events, but in this sharp ratio is also the diversification and the risk. When you construct a portfolio, it's not only the volatility, which has been low, but also the correlation across assets that allows you to have proper diversification. Correlation being high means diversification is low, which means that even though there maybe some trends, there's a lot of risk because it's sort of like a one trade world. If you look at that, that coincides with a period that has been difficult for Trend Following strategies. So they do have profits in some areas, but there was just not enough diversification across their portfolio I think to support their performance as consistent with history.

Niels: Sure, sure. The next area I want to talk about is what usually is the trading program, but today, in our conversation it will be about the trading strategy or the model, however you phrase it, that you've used in your study that really represents the performance over this long period. Tell me about how you and Alex constructed this and feel free to go into as much detail as you want.
Katy: OK, yeah, this is a very important and good question, Niels. One of the chapters of our book that I'm most excited about is actually chapter 3, and this is one called Systematic Trend Following Basics. I found that when I looked at most other books on trend following, and those sort of descriptions, it's very hard to find a specific formula that you could use as "this is the formula" for Trend Following. So what we did, instead, is we tried to create a framework with one formula.

'..we focus on creating one formula for Position Sizing, which is a function of several key variables."
35 min
April 30, 2019 BO18: How to test a model over decades of Data
I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years. So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following with Alex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website. We also discussed how they conducted their research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest. I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
35 min
April 29, 2019 33 The Systematic Investor Series ft Wayne Himelsein – April 29th, 2019
This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles. Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes. He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio. We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert & @WayneHimelsein
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Subscribe on:
1 hr 52 min
April 29, 2019 SI33: The positive effect of embracing volatility ft. Wayne Himelsein
This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles. Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes. He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio. We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 52 min
April 24, 2019 24 Top Traders Round Table with John Fidler, Christopher Vogt, and Jonathan Miles – 1of2
"Not all managed future strategies are created equal." - John Fidler (Tweet)
Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today's investment landscape.

Subscribe on:

In This Episode, You'll Learn:

What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towards
Why diversification isn't always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommends
The advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investments

"What is proven in behavioral finance is that people tend to underestimate the value of liquidity." - Ranjan Bhaduri (Tweet)

The heuristic crutch of private equity
Why Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established ones
The importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfolios

"Quant processing is so cheap. We can all buy computers for almost nothing, and I think that might make it much more challenging as we go forward, given that there's so much easy and inexpensive quant processing to search for anomalies or alpha opportunities." - Christopher Vogt (Tweet)

How trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing markets
How Jonathan's risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures

This episode was sponsored by:

Links Mentioned:

The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios

Connect with our guests:
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
"Diversification for the sake of diversification isn't actually worth it for us." - Jonathon Miles (Tweet)
32 min