Top Traders Unplugged

By Niels Kaastrup-LarsenBusiness News Investing Business News

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Top Traders Unplugged episodes

April 24, 2019RT24: The Value of Liquidity ft. John Fidler, Christopher Vogt & Jonathan Miles – 1of2
On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today’s investment landscape.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towards
Why diversification isn’t always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommends
The advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investments
The heuristic crutch of private equity
Why Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established ones
The importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfolios
How trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing markets
How Jonathan’s risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures

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Links Mentioned:
The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing
Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust
Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank
Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
32 min
April 22, 2019 32 The Systematic Investor Series – April 22nd, 2019
Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for? Can Systematic Trading keep you happy? How accurately can we predict future returns? We discuss whether Trend Following is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead. What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’? Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them? We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over-complicating a Trading System.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Intro
2:00 - Weekly review
5:55 - Top tweets
50:00 - Announcement: Next week’s guest Wayne Himelsein
50:50 - Question 1: George; What are the operational realities of running a TF business?
56:55 - Question 2+: Craig; Please discuss the research that didn’t become part of the system.
1:02:20 - Question 3+: Carl; Series of questions about stop loss mechanics (initial, ATR, trailing, etc.)
1:10:15 - Question 4+: Michael; What are your thoughts on variable count in robust systems? Do you tailor models to specific markets/sectors?
1:24:40 - Question 5: Uncle Mike; What works best for stops?
1:28:25 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 33 min
April 22, 2019 SI32: How accurately can we predict future returns? and can trading with systems keep you happy?
Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for? Can Systematic Trading keep you happy? How accurately can we predict future returns? We discuss whether Trend Following is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead. What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’? Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them? We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over-complicating a Trading System.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:00 – Weekly review of performance
05:55 – Top tweets
50:00 – Announcement: Next week’s guest Wayne Himelsein
50:50 – Question 1: George; What are the operational realities of running a TF business?
56:55 – Question 2+: Craig; Please discuss the research that didn’t become part of the system.
01:02:20 – Question 3+: Carl; Series of questions about stop loss mechanics (initial, ATR, trailing, etc.)
01:10:15 – Question 4+: Michael; What are your thoughts on variable count in robust systems? Do you tailor models to specific markets/sectors?
01:24:40 – Question 5: Uncle Mike; What works best for stops?
01:28:25 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 33 min
April 15, 2019 Best of TTU – Track Records vs Simulations.. What’s Best?
For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you'll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing. This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington.  We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model. So enjoy these unique insights from Scot, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 25 & Episode 26.
The Long side vs the Short side
Niels:  Now, track record...we've touched a little bit upon the track record. What I'd love to do is to ask you how one should read your track record because we all know that strategies evolve over time, and, therefore, in a sense, one could say that actually a track record...sure it shows that you survived. It shows that you have had some innovation, but I think sometimes people maybe get fooled to believe that a track record is a great indication of what the future is going to look like because they really don't know what changes have happened along the way in the model. So in some ways one could say that maybe it's better to look at the backtest of the current model when you look at a manager, maybe that would say more about the future, I don't know, but I'd love to hear about what your view and what your observation is about your own track record, because you mentioned the short side of things, and I know there was a period where I think you didn't take any short trades at all, so I'd love to hear your philosophical view about short trades, because I don't think many people realize that there is a big difference between the long side and the short side in terms of success and profitability, but also generally maybe putting that into context about your own track record and why you made the changes along the way?

Scot:  Well I think you make an excellent point about track records. I think people look at them as some kind of a one loss record in a sporting event, and they miss the enormous amounts of variance and randomness that happened to have lined up and occurred to produce whatever monthly return is shown, or daily return. I think that most groups don't do enough qualitative analysis of the trading method, and simply crunch performance numbers as though they're the end all be all of what the future is going to be. You make an interesting point. I would probably argue that a backtest of the current running model is probably the best, except that it is also going to...if you are hoping to be a 5 or 10 year investor, there're going to be future changes. And so what I might say is, as we've progressed, our changes have been successful, and therefore perhaps one would conclude that our future changes would also be successful. That's a different discussion. Our first major change to the model was in early 2002, was basically eliminating short trades and using a volatility filter for long trades.

'Niels: So why did you make a change to eliminate Short trades back in 2002? Scot: Well, a Short trade is bounded by zero, so it's going to face several hurdles'

Niels: Were the short trades the cause of your drawdown back in the beginning?
Scot: No, no.
Niels: So why did you make a change to eliminate short trades back in 2002?
Scot: Well, short trades, and this is particularly appropriate in our timeframe, on a shorter timeframe I don't think this would not hold as much. Let's imagine in our timeframe we're trying to hold a good winner fo...
22 min
April 15, 2019 31 The Systematic Investor Series – April 15th, 2019
Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Intro
1:50 - Weekly review
5:30 - Top tweets
1:12:00 - Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit?
1:17:30 - Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer?
1:23:30 - Performance recap

Subscribe on:
1 hr 27 min
April 15, 2019 BO17: Track records vs Simulations... what’s Best?
For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you’ll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing. This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington. We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model. So enjoy these unique insights from Scot.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
22 min
April 15, 2019 SI31: Should you be using a Stop-Loss? or Target a certain level of Volatility?
Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
05:30 – Top tweets
01:12:00 – Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit?
01:17:30 – Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer?
01:23:30 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
1 hr 27 min
April 10, 2019 Best of TTU – Crisis Alpha Explained
Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are 'short volatility' strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42.
Is Trend Following just a hedge for bad Equity markets?
Niels: Absolutely. Now, I want to stick with the cover of your book and especially the last part of the title: The Search for Crisis Alpha. Now, I know you are responsible for coining this term ‘Crisis Alpha’ and I want to talk to you about this. Before I do so, I also want to offer a slight concern that I have about the perception of the role of Trend Following in a crisis and it goes something like this. The way I see Trend Following being positioned, and this is not new. This is something that has happened for many, many years. It's kind of a hedge against equity markets if and when they run into trouble, and that always gets labeled as we're in some kind of crisis and that's obviously where the crisis alpha is linked to, but there are far more bonds than equities in the portfolios of investors and I never really hear any debate about trend following as "a hedge, or a protection" against periods where bonds might run into trouble. Especially in a time where bond prices are, to say the least, very high, how do you think about that and is there a concern that when we hear the word 'Crisis Alpha' and trend following, that people automatically think that this is relating to equities?

Katy: So now going back to your point about bonds and commodities. That's something that really bothered me as well, because I kept getting that question all the time. So in the book we talked about crisis alpha for commodity indices. We talked about bond crisis alpha. We talk about commodity crisis alpha, but over the course of writing this book I actually had moved more towards a new idea, and this is the idea of divergence. What we do in the book is we explain that trend following strategies are long divergence. What that means is that the most divergent moment in history is always crisis, wherever it comes from. Yeah, so crisis alpha is part of that. That's extreme divergence. The story is a little bit more clear to me now that it's really about being long divergence in markets, and divergence can be driven by many things. The reason that equity is the central point is that most of us have a home biased equity markets. Our focal point from an emotional standpoint, are equity markets, so they have a little bit more impact on the psychology of the general marketplace, and that's why they can be more extreme, but they're in no way the only thing that drives divergence.

"Convergent risk-taking strategies are used when we believe that the world is somewhat stable, knowable, understandable, and quantifiable. Divergent on the other hand.."

Niels: Sure. I want to talk about the convergent and divergent strategies, and I'd love for you to explain this, but I have to say, I think certainly that many investors are perhaps not... and maybe we don't have enough data, but it will be interesting to see how trend following may actually also be very, very useful in a period where we get a massive crisis in the bond markets, which,
22 min
April 10, 2019 BO16: Crisis Alpha explained
Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are ‘short volatility’ strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.
Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Privacy Policy
Disclaimer
22 min
April 07, 2019 30 The Systematic Investor Series – April 7th, 2019
Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode Summary
0:00 - Intro
1:45 - Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder
6:45 - Weekly review
11:00 - Top tweets
32:20 - Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?
41:00 - Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?
46:30 - Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using 'blue chip' managed futures mutual funds?
1:07:30 - Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?
1:15:50 - Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?
1:19:30 - Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?
1:26:50 - Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade?
1:31:00 - Performance recap
Subscribe on:
1 hr 35 min