中国政辩 Debating China

在《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十四次专题课中， 滕彪教授与黎安友教授以“中国会走向民主吗”作为主题结束了这一系列的课程。他们首先简单回顾和总结了前二十三次课的课程。之后邀请杨子立和郑旭光，和其他网友发言。他们探讨了中国走向民主化的路径，并分析了影响这个国家政治转型的各种因素。内容包括中国的威权政体、经济挑战、国内外动态、公民权利运动以及技术的影响。讨论还回顾了中国的历史事件，如天安门广场大屠杀，并考虑了民主化努力的未来影响，涵盖了内部和外部的视角。 

In the 24th session of "Where is China Going: Party, State, and Global Order," Prof. Teng Biao and Prof. Andrew Nathan concluded the series with the theme “Will China Move Towards Democracy?." They began by briefly reviewing and summarizing the previous 23 sessions. Guests Yang Zili and Zheng Xuguang, along with other online participants, were invited to join the discussion. They explored the pathways to democratization in China and analyzed various factors affecting the country's political transformation. Topics included China's authoritarian regime, economic challenges, domestic and international dynamics, citizen rights movements, and the impact of technology. The discussion also revisited historical events in China, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre, and contemplated the future implications of democratization efforts, considering both internal and external perspectives.

时间轴： 

02:05 杨子立的发言
08:16 郑旭光的发言

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在《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十四次专题课中， 滕彪教授与黎安友教授以“中国会走向民主吗”作为主题结束了这一系列的课程。他们首先简单回顾和总结了前二十三次课的课程。之后邀请杨子立和郑旭光，和其他网友发言。他们探讨了中国走向民主化的路径，并分析了影响这个国家政治转型的各种因素。内容包括中国的威权政体、经济挑战、国内外动态、公民权利运动以及技术的影响。讨论还回顾了中国的历史事件，如天安门广场大屠杀，并考虑了民主化努力的未来影响，涵盖了内部和外部的视角。 

In the 24th session of "Where is China Going: Party, State, and Global Order," Prof. Teng Biao and Prof. Andrew Nathan concluded the series with the theme “Will China Move Towards Democracy?." They began by briefly reviewing and summarizing the previous 23 sessions. Guests Yang Zili and Zheng Xuguang, along with other online participants, were invited to join the discussion. They explored the pathways to democratization in China and analyzed various factors affecting the country's political transformation. Topics included China's authoritarian regime, economic challenges, domestic and international dynamics, citizen rights movements, and the impact of technology. The discussion also revisited historical events in China, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre, and contemplated the future implications of democratization efforts, considering both internal and external perspectives. 

时间轴： 

01:18 课程总结 
11:44 中共的血债 
15:30 为什么民主化应该在中国发生？ 
21:20 黎安友谈中共政权的韧性和脆弱性

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十三次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授邀请王天成先生讨论了中国民主化转型。王天成讨论了中国民主化的可能路径和过去的历史事件对民主进程的影响。 他着重讨论了中国民主转型的难点和潜在的转型方式，如高层分裂、公民动员、社会反叛的重要性、非暴力抗争、以及政府与反对派之间的圆桌谈判等。他特别提到了转型前不会有任何有实质意义的改革、对于渐进改革和党内民主的讨论，以及对于民主化后如何选择政府形式的预期（如议会制等）。王天成还讨论了外部世界的影响、中国的内部控制力度、以及民意对于政治体制的看法。此外，嘉宾和主持人也对中国政治改革派的缺失、法治与民主关系、以及台湾民主化对大陆的影响等问题进行了讨论。 总体而言，这是一场关于中国如何走向民主化的深入讨论，涵盖了理论分析、历史经验、以及对未来路径的预测。 

王天成，《中国民主季刊》主编，中国民主转型研究所所长，《大转型》作者。

The 23rd session of "Where is China Heading: Party, State, and International Order" featured Professor Teng Biao and Professor Andrew Nathan inviting Mr. Wang Tiancheng to discuss China's democratization transition. Wang Tiancheng discussed the possible paths to democratization in China and the impact of past historical events on the democratic process. He focused on the difficulties and potential methods of China's democratic transition, such as elite splits, civic mobilization, the importance of social rebellion, non-violent resistance, and roundtable negotiations between the government and the opposition. He specifically mentioned that there would be no meaningful reforms before the transition, discussions on gradual reform and intra-party democracy, and expectations on how to choose a government form after democratization, such as parliamentary systems. Wang Tiancheng also discussed the influence of the external world, China's internal control strength, and public opinion on the political system. Additionally, the guest and hosts discussed the absence of a political reform faction in China, the relationship between the rule of law and democracy, and the impact of Taiwan's democratization on the mainland. Overall, this was an in-depth discussion on how China might move towards democratization, covering theoretical analysis, historical experiences, and predictions for future paths. 

Wang Tiancheng is the chief editor of “China Journal of Democracy”, director of the Institute for China's Democratic Transition, and author of The Great Transformation. 

时间轴： 

00:20 吃不到葡萄说葡萄酸？ 
06:54 80年代的变化 
09:52 民主转型的特点 
20:11 法制与民主 
34:00 台湾民主的角色

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十三次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授邀请王天成先生讨论了中国民主化转型。王天成讨论了中国民主化的可能路径和过去的历史事件对民主进程的影响。 他着重讨论了中国民主转型的难点和潜在的转型方式，如高层分裂、公民动员、社会反叛的重要性、非暴力抗争、以及政府与反对派之间的圆桌谈判等。他特别提到了转型前不会有任何有实质意义的改革、对于渐进改革和党内民主的讨论，以及对于民主化后如何选择政府形式的预期（如议会制等）。王天成还讨论了外部世界的影响、中国的内部控制力度、以及民意对于政治体制的看法。此外，嘉宾和主持人也对中国政治改革派的缺失、法治与民主关系、以及台湾民主化对大陆的影响等问题进行了讨论。 总体而言，这是一场关于中国如何走向民主化的深入讨论，涵盖了理论分析、历史经验、以及对未来路径的预测。

王天成，《中国民主季刊》主编，中国民主转型研究所所长，《大转型》作者。 

The 23rd session of "Where is China Heading: Party, State, and International Order" featured Professor Teng Biao and Professor Andrew Nathan inviting Mr. Wang Tiancheng to discuss China's democratization transition. Wang Tiancheng discussed the possible paths to democratization in China and the impact of past historical events on the democratic process. He focused on the difficulties and potential methods of China's democratic transition, such as elite splits, civic mobilization, the importance of social rebellion, non-violent resistance, and roundtable negotiations between the government and the opposition. He specifically mentioned that there would be no meaningful reforms before the transition, discussions on gradual reform and intra-party democracy, and expectations on how to choose a government form after democratization, such as parliamentary systems. Wang Tiancheng also discussed the influence of the external world, China's internal control strength, and public opinion on the political system. Additionally, the guest and hosts discussed the absence of a political reform faction in China, the relationship between the rule of law and democracy, and the impact of Taiwan's democratization on the mainland. Overall, this was an in-depth discussion on how China might move towards democratization, covering theoretical analysis, historical experiences, and predictions for future paths. 

Wang Tiancheng is the chief editor of “China Journal of Democracy”, director of the Institute for China's Democratic Transition, and author of The Great Transformation. 

时间轴： 

00:56 黎安友对中国民主转型的看法 
10:37 渐进主义的形成背景 
16:47 改革派的消亡 
22:51 中国特色的民主？

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十三次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授邀请王天成先生讨论了中国民主化转型。王天成讨论了中国民主化的可能路径和过去的历史事件对民主进程的影响。 他着重讨论了中国民主转型的难点和潜在的转型方式，如高层分裂、公民动员、社会反叛的重要性、非暴力抗争、以及政府与反对派之间的圆桌谈判等。他特别提到了转型前不会有任何有实质意义的改革、对于渐进改革和党内民主的讨论，以及对于民主化后如何选择政府形式的预期（如议会制等）。王天成还讨论了外部世界的影响、中国的内部控制力度、以及民意对于政治体制的看法。此外，嘉宾和主持人也对中国政治改革派的缺失、法治与民主关系、以及台湾民主化对大陆的影响等问题进行了讨论。 总体而言，这是一场关于中国如何走向民主化的深入讨论，涵盖了理论分析、历史经验、以及对未来路径的预测。 

王天成，《中国民主季刊》主编，中国民主转型研究所所长，《大转型》作者。

The 23rd session of "Where is China Heading: Party, State, and International Order" featured Professor Teng Biao and Professor Andrew Nathan inviting Mr. Wang Tiancheng to discuss China's democratization transition. Wang Tiancheng discussed the possible paths to democratization in China and the impact of past historical events on the democratic process. He focused on the difficulties and potential methods of China's democratic transition, such as elite splits, civic mobilization, the importance of social rebellion, non-violent resistance, and roundtable negotiations between the government and the opposition. He specifically mentioned that there would be no meaningful reforms before the transition, discussions on gradual reform and intra-party democracy, and expectations on how to choose a government form after democratization, such as parliamentary systems. Wang Tiancheng also discussed the influence of the external world, China's internal control strength, and public opinion on the political system. Additionally, the guest and hosts discussed the absence of a political reform faction in China, the relationship between the rule of law and democracy, and the impact of Taiwan's democratization on the mainland. Overall, this was an in-depth discussion on how China might move towards democratization, covering theoretical analysis, historical experiences, and predictions for future paths. 

Wang Tiancheng is the chief editor of “China Journal of Democracy”, director of the Institute for China's Democratic Transition, and author of The Great Transformation. 

时间轴：

 03:22 外国民主转型研究 
10:44 中国民主转型的主张和假定 
14:17 民主转型的难点 
20:51 中国未来应该怎样民主化

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十二次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授主要探讨了西方国家对中国政策的变化和其背后的原因。滕彪首先分析了西方国家，特别是美国，如何从最初的接触政策（engagement policy）转向对中国的更为警觉和批判的态度。这种转变主要是由于对中国政府在国际事务中的行为、对人权的侵犯，以及对国内外民主价值的挑战所引起的担忧。他还讨论了中国政府对海外学术自由和言论自由的影响，以及中国在国际组织中的作用。此外，还提到了中国如何利用经济和政治手段在国际上扩大影响，包括通过“一带一路”倡议和在联合国等国际平台上的活动。黎安友介绍了美国各界政府对华的政策和他对接触政策的看法。总体上，他们详细描述了西方国家对中国日益增长的警惕态度，以及这种态度背后的多重因素。

In the 22nd session of "Where is China Going: The Party, State, and Global Order,” Prof. Teng Biao and Prof. Andrew Nathan mainly explored the changes in Western countries' policies towards China and the reasons behind these changes. Teng Biao first analyzed how Western countries, especially the United States, shifted from an initial engagement policy to a more alert and critical stance towards China. This shift was mainly due to concerns over the Chinese government's behavior in international affairs, human rights violations, and challenges to domestic and international democratic values. He also discussed the impact of the Chinese government on academic freedom and freedom of speech overseas, and China's role in international organizations. Additionally, the discussion included how China utilizes economic and political means to expand its international influence, including through the "Belt and Road" initiative and activities in international platforms like the United Nations. Andrew Nathan introduced the U.S. government's various policies towards China and his views on the engagement policy. Overall, they detailed the growing vigilance of Western countries towards China and the multiple factors behind this attitude. 

时间轴： 

00:12 黎安友谈接触政策 
08:00 中国崛起 
11:17 未来10年国际关系的预测 
15:06 台海战争？ 
37:10 中共是否遵守国际条约？

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十二次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授主要探讨了西方国家对中国政策的变化和其背后的原因。滕彪首先分析了西方国家，特别是美国，如何从最初的接触政策（engagement policy）转向对中国的更为警觉和批判的态度。这种转变主要是由于对中国政府在国际事务中的行为、对人权的侵犯，以及对国内外民主价值的挑战所引起的担忧。他还讨论了中国政府对海外学术自由和言论自由的影响，以及中国在国际组织中的作用。此外，还提到了中国如何利用经济和政治手段在国际上扩大影响，包括通过“一带一路”倡议和在联合国等国际平台上的活动。黎安友介绍了美国各界政府对华的政策和他对接触政策的看法。总体上，他们详细描述了西方国家对中国日益增长的警惕态度，以及这种态度背后的多重因素。 

In the 22nd session of "Where is China Going: The Party, State, and Global Order,” Prof. Teng Biao and Prof. Andrew Nathan mainly explored the changes in Western countries' policies towards China and the reasons behind these changes. Teng Biao first analyzed how Western countries, especially the United States, shifted from an initial engagement policy to a more alert and critical stance towards China. This shift was mainly due to concerns over the Chinese government's behavior in international affairs, human rights violations, and challenges to domestic and international democratic values. He also discussed the impact of the Chinese government on academic freedom and freedom of speech overseas, and China's role in international organizations. Additionally, the discussion included how China utilizes economic and political means to expand its international influence, including through the "Belt and Road" initiative and activities in international platforms like the United Nations. Andrew Nathan introduced the U.S. government's various policies towards China and his views on the engagement policy. Overall, they detailed the growing vigilance of Western countries towards China and the multiple factors behind this attitude. 

时间轴： 

00:25 天安门制裁 
01:29 接触政策的失败 
03:30 错误的假设 
10:02 冷战2.0？ 
12:23 美国对华政策

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十二次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授主要探讨了西方国家对中国政策的变化和其背后的原因。滕彪首先分析了西方国家，特别是美国，如何从最初的接触政策（engagement policy）转向对中国的更为警觉和批判的态度。这种转变主要是由于对中国政府在国际事务中的行为、对人权的侵犯，以及对国内外民主价值的挑战所引起的担忧。他还讨论了中国政府对海外学术自由和言论自由的影响，以及中国在国际组织中的作用。此外，还提到了中国如何利用经济和政治手段在国际上扩大影响，包括通过“一带一路”倡议和在联合国等国际平台上的活动。黎安友介绍了美国各界政府对华的政策和他对接触政策的看法。总体上，他们详细描述了西方国家对中国日益增长的警惕态度，以及这种态度背后的多重因素。

In the 22nd session of "Where is China Going: The Party, State, and Global Order,” Prof. Teng Biao and Prof. Andrew Nathan mainly explored the changes in Western countries' policies towards China and the reasons behind these changes. Teng Biao first analyzed how Western countries, especially the United States, shifted from an initial engagement policy to a more alert and critical stance towards China. This shift was mainly due to concerns over the Chinese government's behavior in international affairs, human rights violations, and challenges to domestic and international democratic values. He also discussed the impact of the Chinese government on academic freedom and freedom of speech overseas, and China's role in international organizations. Additionally, the discussion included how China utilizes economic and political means to expand its international influence, including through the "Belt and Road" initiative and activities in international platforms like the United Nations. Andrew Nathan introduced the U.S. government's various policies towards China and his views on the engagement policy. Overall, they detailed the growing vigilance of Western countries towards China and the multiple factors behind this attitude. 

时间轴： 

02:40 国际民主化潮流 
06:10 中共专制对国际秩序的威胁 
08:30 一带一路的政治企图（债务陷阱） 
10:12 中共对外的渗透 
11:04 孔子学院和学术自由 
14:07 操纵联合国机制 
15:57 经济胁迫 
16:41人质外交 
17:32 干涉民主选举 
18:55 骚扰和攻击 
21:47 香港国安法 
22:41海外警察站 
23:25 海外绑架

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十一次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授邀请赵穗生教授讨论了中国外交与国际关系。赵穗生教授讨论了中国外交决策、习近平的外交政策转型，以及中国与美国的关系。他分析了中国历史上不同领导人的外交风格和战略，特别是习近平时代的变化。他还深入探讨了习近平权力集中对中国外交政策的影响，以及这种集权趋势如何塑造了中国的当前国际地位和关系。此外，黎安友和滕彪还讨论了东升西降，台湾问题和新冷战的准确性以及中国的安全挑战、经济发展与政治安全的平衡。 

赵穗生，丹佛大学国际关系学院终身教授兼美中合作中心主任，哈佛大学费正清中心研究员。 

In the 21st session of "Where is China Going: The Party, State, and Global Order," Professor Teng Biao and Professor Andrew Nathan invited Professor Zhao Suisheng to discuss Chinese diplomacy and international relations. Professor Zhao discussed China's foreign policy decision-making, the transformation of Xi Jinping's foreign policy, and China's relationship with the United States. He analyzed the diplomatic styles and strategies of different Chinese leaders throughout history, with a focus on changes during Xi Jinping's era. Professor Zhao also explored how Xi Jinping's centralization of power has influenced China's foreign policy and shaped its current international status and relations. Additionally, the discussion with Professors Li Anyu and Teng Biao covered topics like the 'Rising East Rising, Declining West narrative, the Taiwan issue, the accuracy of the new Cold War concept, and the balance between China's security challenges, economic development, and political stability. 

Zhao Suisheng is a tenured professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and Director of the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation. He is also a research fellow at Harvard University's Fairbank Center. 

时间轴:

00:10 东升西降靠谱吗？
03:18 台湾问题？ 
09:47 新冷战准确吗？ 
26:10 中共的强大和脆弱

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《中国向何处去：政党、国家与国际秩序》的第二十一次专题，滕彪教授与黎安友教授邀请赵穗生教授讨论了中国外交与国际关系。赵穗生教授讨论了中国外交决策、习近平的外交政策转型，以及中国与美国的关系。他分析了中国历史上不同领导人的外交风格和战略，特别是习近平时代的变化。他还深入探讨了习近平权力集中对中国外交政策的影响，以及这种集权趋势如何塑造了中国的当前国际地位和关系。此外，黎安友和滕彪还讨论了东升西降，台湾问题和新冷战的准确性以及中国的安全挑战、经济发展与政治安全的平衡。 

赵穗生，丹佛大学国际关系学院终身教授兼美中合作中心主任，哈佛大学费正清中心研究员。 

In the 21st session of "Where is China Going: The Party, State, and Global Order," Professor Teng Biao and Professor Andrew Nathan invited Professor Zhao Suisheng to discuss Chinese diplomacy and international relations. Professor Zhao discussed China's foreign policy decision-making, the transformation of Xi Jinping's foreign policy, and China's relationship with the United States. He analyzed the diplomatic styles and strategies of different Chinese leaders throughout history, with a focus on changes during Xi Jinping's era. Professor Zhao also explored how Xi Jinping's centralization of power has influenced China's foreign policy and shaped its current international status and relations. Additionally, the discussion with Professors Li Anyu and Teng Biao covered topics like the 'Rising East Rising, Declining West narrative, the Taiwan issue, the accuracy of the new Cold War concept, and the balance between China's security challenges, economic development, and political stability. 

Zhao Suisheng is a tenured professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and Director of the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation. He is also a research fellow at Harvard University's Fairbank Center.

时间轴：

00:07 三层外交制定的影响
08:38 外交政策的政治化和官僚机构扩大化
13:24 习将安全置于重中之重
15:47 最后的三个问题
20:54 中共的外交不代表人民的利益

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