As the Trump transition continues and we try to steer and anticipate its decisions on AI as best we can, there was continued discussion about one of the AI debate's favorite questions: Are we making huge progress real soon now, or is deep learning hitting a wall? My best guess is it is kind of both, that past pure scaling techniques are on their own hitting a wall, but that progress remains rapid and the major companies are evolving other ways to improve performance, which started with OpenAI's o1.

Point of order: It looks like as I switched phones, WhatsApp kicked me out of all of my group chats. If I was in your group chat, and you’d like me to stay, please add me again. If you’re in a different group you’d like me to join on either WhatsApp or Signal (or other platforms) and would like [...]

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Outline:

(00:58) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

(02:24) Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility

(04:20) Can’t Liver Without You

(12:04) Fun With Image Generation

(12:51) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

(14:11) Copyright Confrontation

(15:25) The Art of the Jailbreak

(15:54) Get Involved

(18:10) Math is Hard

(20:20) In Other AI News

(25:04) Good Advice

(27:19) AI Will Improve a Lot Over Time

(30:56) Tear Down This Wall

(38:04) Quiet Speculations

(38:54) The Quest for Sane Regulations

(47:04) The Quest for Insane Regulations

(49:43) The Mask Comes Off

(52:08) Richard Ngo Resigns From OpenAI

(55:44) Unfortunate Marc Andreessen Watch

(56:53) The Week in Audio

(01:05:00) Rhetorical Innovation

(01:09:44) Seven Boats and a Helicopter

(01:11:27) The Wit and Wisdom of Sam Altman

(01:12:10) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

(01:14:50) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(01:15:14) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone

(01:17:32) The Lighter Side

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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