Katja Grace and AI impacts survey thousands of researchers on a variety of questions, following up on a similar 2022 survey as well as one in 2016.

I encourage opening the original to get better readability of graphs and for context and additional information. I’ll cover some of it, but there's a lot.

A Very Large Survey Full of Contradictions

Here is the abstract, summarizing many key points:

In the largest survey of its kind, we surveyed 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues, asking for their predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems.

The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular [...]

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Outline:

(00:25) A Very Large Survey Full of Contradictions

(05:24) They’ve Destabilized the Timeline

(08:50) What, Me Worry?

(10:02) The Biggest Question

(14:25) Not So Fast with the Not So Fast

(16:03) Safety Research Is Good Actually

(18:54) Questions for Next Season

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First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.