Previously: The Fundamentals, The Gamblers, The Business

We have now arrived at the topics most central to this book, aka ‘The Future.’

Rationalism and Effective Altruism (EA)

The Manifest conference was also one of the last reporting trips that I made for this book. And it confirmed for me that the River is real—not just some literary device I invented. (6706)

Yep. The River is real.

I consider myself, among many things, a straight up rationalist.

I do not consider myself an EA, and never have.

This completes the four quadrants of the two-by-two of [does Nate knows it well, does Zvi knows it well]. The first two, where Nate was in his element, went very well. The third clearly was less exacting, as one would expect, but pretty good.

Now I have the information advantage, even more than I did [...]

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Outline:

(00:16) Rationalism and Effective Altruism (EA)

(06:01) Cost-Benefit Analysis

(09:04) How About Trying At All

(10:11) The Virtues of Rationality

(11:56) Effective Altruism and Rationality, Very Different of Course

(24:37) The Story of OpenAI

(30:19) Altman, OpenAI and AI Existential Risk

(38:26) Tonight at 11: Doom

(01:00:39) AI Existential Risk: They’re For It

(01:07:42) To Pause or Not to Pause

(01:11:11) You Need Better Decision Theory

(01:15:27) Understanding the AI

(01:19:43) Aligning the AI

(01:23:50) A Glimpse of Our Possible Future

(01:28:16) The Closing Motto

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.