Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Recent writings by Michael Pettis:
“Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en
“Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/
“Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model
(09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard
(17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China
(20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s
(24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)
(28:06) VanEck Ad
(28:46) Interview Continues
(36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists
(49:58) Permissionless Ad
(50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?
(57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"
(01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit
(01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances
(01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World
(01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)
(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?
(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out
(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
View all episodes
By Blockworks
4.5
249249 ratings
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Recent writings by Michael Pettis:
“Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en
“Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/
“Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model
(09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard
(17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China
(20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s
(24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.)
(28:06) VanEck Ad
(28:46) Interview Continues
(36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists
(49:58) Permissionless Ad
(50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"?
(57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort"
(01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit
(01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances
(01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World
(01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control)
(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?
(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out
(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
More shows like Forward Guidance
View all
Macro Voices
3,067 Listeners
Top Traders Unplugged
589 Listeners
Hidden Forces
1,435 Listeners
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
909 Listeners
Hedgeye Podcasts
200 Listeners
The Market Huddle
360 Listeners
What Grinds My Gears
113 Listeners
Excess Returns
88 Listeners
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
100 Listeners
Eurodollar University
465 Listeners
Empire
168 Listeners
Supply Shock
112 Listeners
Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient
374 Listeners
On The Tape with Danny Moses
162 Listeners
The Macro Trading Floor
215 Listeners
Bell Curve
33 Listeners
Market Depth
22 Listeners
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
415 Listeners
Lightspeed
30 Listeners
The Julia La Roche Show
70 Listeners
0xResearch
17 Listeners
Expansion
2 Listeners
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
158 Listeners