In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook

(09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments

(12:49) Grayscale Ad

(13:27) Government Shutdown Impact

(15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies

(19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness

(22:49) The State of the Labor Market

(26:09) Grayscale Ad

(26:56) Should the Fed Cut?

(30:56) How We Fight Inflation

(34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet

(41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints

(45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity

(48:43) Active Treasury Issuance

(51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity

(53:03) The Debasement Trade

(57:54) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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