Forward Guidance

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy

(03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech

(09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields

(13:38) Government Spending & DOGE

(19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar

(22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps

(24:56) Ads

(26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria

(33:24) Bullish Market Signals

(37:41) Stifling Volatility

(40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin

(43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

(48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession

(53:34) Differentiating Assets

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s potential economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran

Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Stephen's Background

(02:34) Context Behind The Paper

(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade

(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency

(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining

(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs

(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs

(25:37) Currency Offsetting

(32:25) Ads

(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies

(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs

(49:18) Dollar Devaluation

(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury

(01:01:46) The Big Picture

(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets

(01:06:43) Closing Remarks

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and how fiscal is driving nominal GDP. We also delve into the implications of an absent Fed, the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist

(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift

(14:14) Forward Guidance

(15:54) Summarizing George's Position

(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds

(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy

(33:28) Ads

(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)

(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?

(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed

(49:51) What Stage Are We In?

(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate

(01:01:23) Economic Outlook

(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:27 Election Outcome

04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling

09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?

15:53 Market Impact Of Election

23:04 Ads

24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)

25:35 Offsides Hedging

30:40 Powell & The Fed

36:37 December FOMC Meeting

40:47 2025 Themes To Watch

44:39 Short Gold?

46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs

52:19 New Market Regime

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) FOMC Takeaways

(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?

(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?

(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What

(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy

(15:40) Quantitative Tightening

(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do

(22:20) Ledger Ad

(23:05) The Labor Market

(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed

(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?

(35:22) Fiscal Deficits

(42:51) Asset Allocation

(44:42) Credit Spreads

(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy

(49:58) F*ck Valuations

(52:11) Follow Bob's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations

(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election

(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact

(27:52) Ledger Ad

(28:37) How Will The Fed React?

(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar

(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure

(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect

(52:06) Market Outlook

(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways

(14:50) Quant Corner

(24:31) Ledger Ad

(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?

(37:31) QRA

(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?

(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?

(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates

(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

(12:39) Election Impact on Markets

(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields

(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets

(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation

(34:52) Ledger Ad

(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?

(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk

(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges

(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates

(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?

(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:33) Path of Interest Rates

(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?

(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves

(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging

(20:29) Election Probability Distribution

(27:17) Ledger Ad

(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates

(31:10) Inflation Resurgence

(33:18) Global Coordination

(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade

(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency

(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market

(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en

Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle

(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?

(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles

(18:20) The Cyclical Economy

(21:52) The Housing Sector

(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing

(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market

(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims

(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims

(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions

(47:12) The Unemployment Rate

(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve

(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?

(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.