In this episode, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro joins the show to discuss why he didn’t call for a recession in previous years but IS calling for one in 2025, why the labor market is looking bleak, and how tariffs, wages, and oil play into the inflation outlook. We also delve into what the Fed should be doing headed into the FOMC meeting, Fed independence & the future Chairman, how the long bond will react to a recession, and more. Enjoy!
—
Follow RenMac: https://x.com/RenMacLLC
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) NFP & Labor Market

(10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data

(17:38) Tariff Strategy

(19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda

(31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks

(38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand

(44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies

(51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum

(53:47) MSTR Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order

(07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows

(12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025?

(18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth

(23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis?

(28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling?

(32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism

(41:10) A New Regime For Markets?

(43:35) The U.S Economic Supply Shock

(47:03) Structuring Alpha vs Beta Portfolios

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) Beware the Doom Loop

(13:21) Ondo Ad

(13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization?

(16:15) Dollar & Bonds

(23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop

(25:06) Real Rates & Inflation

(31:48) Ondo Ad

(32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored

(38:13) Trading The Current Regime

(47:24) Gold Market

(49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets

(55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth?

(59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem

(09:30) What Will the Fed Do?

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

__

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions

(07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy

(13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows

(19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity

(25:26) Treasury Buybacks

(30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(32:04) Powell & The Fed

(34:43) SLR & Big Banks

(37:30) What Would Trigger QE?

(41:55) Structural Bid In Gold

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:45) Recent Fed Remarks

(06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades

(16:27) Ondo Ad

(16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown

(27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve

(35:30) Ondo Ad

(36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't)

(36:59) Equities & Government Spending

(41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

__

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:34) Market Radar Models

(04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro

(07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach

(14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders

(20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro

(24:06) Argument Against Shorting

(27:57) Current Market Outlook

(34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't)

(34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(37:00) The Fed & Deficits

(46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On

(49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms

(52:09) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

__

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:35) Mel’s Spot-on Market Predictions

(06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn

(09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse

(13:36) Ondo Ad

(14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't)

(15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade

(23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook

(28:47) Trump Admin’s Grand Agenda

(34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation

(35:54) Ondo Ad

(36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion

(39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation

(52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets

(57:57) Gold & Bitcoin

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel

--

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Turning Bearish In 2025

(10:490 Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(12:00) How Trump Spooked Markets

(15:46) The Trump & Bessent Playbook

(19:13) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025

(27:57) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(29:07) How To Position Under Trump 2.0

(32:46) Will The Fed Step In?

(36:46) What We Learnt From SVB’s Collapse

(39:43) What’s Trump’s End Game

(44:31) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?

(47:24) Building A Crypto Portfolio

(01:01:01) Long vs Short Vol

(01:04:04) Coinbase & Crypto Equities

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before even thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:39) PMLS IV

(02:02) Navigating This Insane Market

(07:32) Key Market Drivers

(12:22) Ondo Ad

(12:48) China & Tariffs

(16:31) US Spending Problem

(20:33) Bond Market

(24:12) The Fed & Inflation

(29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal

(32:39) Ondo Ad

(33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market

(38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point

(42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies

(48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put

(52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025

(56:02) Market Tailwinds

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.