Future Commerce

Shopify merchants set a record $14.6 billion over BFCM last year. But as discovery moves into AI and the season stretches longer, the store’s job is changing from closing a sale to starting a relationship.

Ellen Linardi, VP of Product at Shopify, is obsessed with fixing in-store workflows and dreams of a world where items left in a shopper’s online cart are ready when the customer arrives in-store. We unpack how in-person purchases are both the most personal and the most anonymous transactions in retail, how POS workflows free merchants to focus on curation, and why 2027 should be the year businesses uplevel experiential commerce.

• The customer relationship often starts online, and deepens in-store. Shopify is focusing on closing that gap.
• Retail-first merchants still need to be findable through AI search. That’s where awareness and discovery happen now, before consumers leave home.
• While the holidays are for new business acquisition, brands should treat every sale as a relationship moment: identified customers spend significantly more.
• Workflow is everything, and optimization differs from store to store. Customize POS to how each location actually sells.
• “A customer list is only as good as what you do with it afterward.” — Ellen Linardi
• “Buyers are not forgiving with wasted time. And time in store is not wasted time, [unless] you’re waiting.” — Ellen Linardi
• “I like to think of [small businesses] as people with consumer resources but enterprise problems.” — Ellen Linardi
• “An in-person transaction is the most anonymous transaction we have, and yet it is the most personal.” — Brian Lange

• Learn more about Shopify’s latest retail and POS updates at Shopify Editions
• Explore Shopify POS and Smart Grid
• Connect with Ellen Linardi on LinkedIn
• Future Commerce’s BFCM 2025: We Give Thanks for Couch Commerce
• Future Commerce’s OMNIMODAL research
• Future Commerce’s The Concierge Economy guide
• Future Commerce’s celebrity brands Signal Report with Merciv
• Get tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMA

• Memorable Over Measurable: Retail’s Lost Wonders (Ep. 482)
• Separating Real Signals from the Noise (Ep. 480)
• Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design (Insiders)
• Field Notes: How Physical Retail’s Most Compelling Stores Activate the Senses (Insiders)
• The Good Friction Opportunity (Insiders)
• The Doorbusters Are Back (And So Are the 5 am Lines) (The Senses)
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

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Selling online has never been more expensive. Cheap channels are saturated, factory and freight costs have climbed, and ad platforms keep getting better at extracting margin from brands. For a lean DTC brand in 2026, the old math simply doesn’t math.

Ecommerce economics are broken. Dave Stickland, Co-Founder and President of Popsmith, joins Phillip and Brian to share how he rebuilt Popsmith’s marketing from the garage up. Dave explains how agentic AI tools take his ad creative from concept to live in 24 hours, why AI slop is a skill issue, and why the next generation of agencies and creative strategists will be paid for vision, not execution.

• There’s no more frontier for DTC brands. A decade ago, subsidized Amazon fees, direct access to overseas factories, and cheap paid social made healthy margins easy. Now factories sell against brands on Amazon, factory wages have doubled, freight costs have soared since COVID, and Meta keeps getting better at extracting ad spend.
• Contribution margin pays for everything below the line, including agencies, freelancers, and new hires. When that margin disappears, so does the budget to grow.
• AI creative is still not fully autonomous, but only works with scaffolding: product renders, brand context, and a clear process.
• It’s time for brands to extract new value from the creative library they’ve already paid for.
• Agencies will be paid to advise and build SOPs, not to execute inside the software.
• “You either own the software or the software will own what you do.” — Dave Stickland
• “What AI will never be is relational.” — Dave Stickland
• “The data set itself is what you are paying for, not the tool.” — Dave Stickland

• Dave on X: The Math Doesn’t Math
• Shop the popcorn popper at popsmith.com
• Runneth by Motion
• Jamey Gannon’s The AI Creative Director course
• Future Commerce’s LORE
• Get tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMA

• The Growth v. Profitability Cage Match (Infinite Shelf)
• DTC Theory and The Innovator’s Dilemma (Ep. 253)
• [DECODED] The Power of AI-Enabled Ambition
• From Plastic to Patek: What AI and Watchmaking Have in Common
• The End of Outside: How to Future-Proof Your Career Against the AI Apocalypse
• Our Post-Funnel Future: Brand Ethos is the New Competitive Moat
• The Final Boss of Popcorn Buckets (The Senses)
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

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Milani Cosmetics has spent 25 years pairing prestige-quality formulas with mass-market price points. In the last five years, the indie brand doubled its business and climbed from No. 10 to No. 7 in mass color cosmetics—and it plans to double again over the next three.

Jeremy Lowenstein, Chief Marketing Officer at Milani Cosmetics, joins Phillip and Brian to talk about the brand’s latest marketing movement, What’s Inside Is Everything, which emphasizes community, authenticity, and quality. He explains how pop-ups and creator partnerships bring the brand to life beyond its 25,000+ stores, and how to maintain brand relevance and consumer connection in a market driven largely by celebrity and influencer endorsements.

• What’s Inside Is Everything is a 360-degree brand platform rather than a one-off campaign, anchoring all of Milani’s messaging since January 2026 in the quality of ingredients.
• Milani brings customers into the Baked Blush creation process; the cult-classic product is hand-piped onto terracotta tiles in Italy.
• Milani defines its core customer by life stage, not generation. The Milani consumer is a young but established adult with disposable income, who is ready to settle down with quality products they can use long-term. Milani positions itself to receive consumers when they are ready to commit to a brand, rather than leaning into generational stereotypes and chasing fleeting trends that other brands scramble for. “Someone who is Gen Z now will also eventually also become a 38-year-old.” –– Jeremy Lowenstein
• “It’s easy to start a brand in beauty. It’s hard to stay in it.” — Jeremy Lowenstein
• “We’re not here to help you change who you are. We’re here to help you reveal what you think is your best self.” — Jeremy Lowenstein
• “The funnel’s not dead. The funnel just looks different. It basically looks like spaghetti now, and it takes you all over the place.” — Jeremy Lowenstein
• “Everyone thinks [TikTok Shop] is net new. It’s basically QVC on steroids.” –– Jeremy Lowenstein
• “Every piece of marketing has to perform. It’s just what kind of performance are you tasking it to do?” — Jeremy Lowenstein

• Watch Milani’s What’s Inside Is Everything Baked Blush film
• Explore Milani’s Baked Collection at milanicosmetics.com
• Milani x Shelby Ann Bell pop-up at Momo Cafe in Atlanta
• Future Commerce’s The Multiplayer Brand
• Future Commerce’s Celebrity Brands Signal Report
• Connect with Jeremy Lowenstein on LinkedIn
• Get tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMA

• What Makes Stores Worth Visiting? (Ep. 416)
• The Process is the Product
• Squeezegate and The Dupe Economy (The Senses)
• Gen Z Lives in a Partnership-Based Society. Your Brand Should, Too.
• Beyond the Buzz: Ultimate Guide to 29 Celebrity-Backed Brands
• Maintaining the Cool Factor: Scaling Your DTC Brand in Traditional Channels
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

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DoorDash shoppers come to the app with a need, not a shopping list, and that makes them unusually loyal and unusually open to discovery. Katie Daleo, General Manager of CPG Ads at DoorDash, joins Phillip and Alicia to talk about how brands can plan for moments instead of audiences, why DoorDash pursued Alliance for Audited Media incrementality certification, and what changes when commerce media is measured on orders and intent instead of impressions.

Plus, we dig into the newly launched Brand Center, which turns what Dashers see on the shelf into real-time availability and substitution data, why brand and performance marketing are converging again, and why Katie sees DoorDash as "local commerce at scale."

• DoorDash's incremental ROAS methodology earned AAM incrementality certification, and Katie says partners are seeing 30%+ incremental sales lift on average.
• Discovery is up for grabs. In some categories, unbranded DoorDash searches (think: "beer") drive 10% of orders, so brands have to win the shopper who hasn't picked a brand yet.
• Videos under six seconds perform best, and placement matters: what works on the homepage can get in the way on a product page when someone just wants to check out.
• The funnel collapses inside the app. Awareness, consideration, and conversion can happen in a single session, so offsite creative and in-app click-through need to work as one journey.
• Brand Center turns the shelf into a data source. Brands can now see on-shelf availability, which SKUs actually make it onto DoorDash, how their product content shows up, and where shoppers go when an item is substituted.
• Out-of-stocks are a loyalty test. Roughly 40% of shoppers ask for a refund rather than accept a substitute, which tracks with the third of shoppers who arrive with a specific item in mind.
• "If you can find a solution that works for the consumer, it will work for the brand, in which case it will work for DoorDash." — Katie Daleo
• "Data is the currency we have with CPG partners." — Katie Daleo
• "You can now do the full funnel in like three minutes." — Katie Daleo
• "Any media should be showing impact, but the actual metric or the methodology may need to be different." — Katie Daleo
• "I think of DoorDash as a platform that allows you to do local commerce at scale." — Katie Daleo

• Episode 474: Commerce Media's Day Two: The Agentic Shelf and the Measurement Reckoning
• The Senses: The Advertising Week Mid-Week Dispatch
• “Vertical Dramas” and the New Era of Commerce Media
• Ad Infinitum: Retail Media is The Final Boss
• Episode 452: LIVE at Shoptalk Spring: Retail Media Confessions, Hype Cycles, and the Creator Reckoning
• The Future of the Funnel (Live from K:LDN 2026)
• Insiders 224: Non-Determinism and the Death of Performance Marketing
• Insiders 238: Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?
• The Senses: Quick Commerce's God Complex
• Even TikTok is an Ad Network Now
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

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Halloween is now America’s second-largest consumer holiday, surpassing Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day in total spend, especially in categories like home decor. From the high street, the UK is catching up fast due to the rise of community-driven events, third spaces, and niche internet communities.

Melissa Minkow, Global Director of Retail Strategy & Insights at CI&T, joins Phillip and Alicia from London to share what Halloween looks like on the other side of the Atlantic. Melissa explains why UK Halloween is getting “Americanized,” how algorithms shape our real-world rituals, and why fandom keeps stretching the season.

• UK Halloween spend is expected to hit £705M, driven mostly by Gen Z and millennials. Meanwhile, US Halloween spend is projected to reach $13.5B, with households spending an average of $285. 
• UK Halloween isn’t a carbon copy of America’s. In the UK, community lives in third spaces like pubs and transit, not front porches.
• The retail calendar is stretching earlier, largely driven by fandoms inflating moments into months of licensing, drops, and ticketed events.
• “People want the moment when it is the moment.” — Melissa Minkow
• “There’s no temperance in the algorithm.” — Phillip Jackson
• “I have often wondered… if I ever was actually a sneakerhead or if performance marketing and algorithms made me one.” — Phillip Jackson

• Catch up on Ep. 484: Aubrey Horowitz of Home Depot, “We Plan Halloween 3 Years in Advance”
• Deloitte’s 2026 Halloween survey
• Treatonomics: Morning Consult x Hershey’s research on the new Halloween calendar
• Chanté Joseph, “Is Having a Boyfriend Embarrassing Now?” (Vogue)
• Kate Berlant on Good Hang
• Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
• Get tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMA

• Spooky Commerce: What Halloween Shopping Trends Tell Us About Modern Culture
• Consumers are Overindulging on Halloween. Disney is Meeting the Moment.
• Aug-tober is Here (The Senses)
• Memory Morphing: How Media Reshapes Recall and Taints Nostalgia (Ep. 334)
• Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!
 

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• 🆕 Access to our newest analysis feature for members, Field Notes, our retail space analysis briefing. Featuring brands like Swatch, Printemps, and Skims. 
• Access to our Word of Mouth Index with Fairing
• Save 15% on Future Commerce print journals and merch
• Exclusive invites to physical events, dinners, and priority invites to industry events (SXSW, Art Basel, VISIONS)
• Ad-free episodes and bonus content!

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Stretched wallets are still spending. Deloitte projects up to 4.8% growth in holiday spending this year, driven mostly by price of goods rather than volume of sales. 

Shoppers say they feel stretched, yet they keep spending. Brian McCarthy, a principal in Deloitte’s strategy and analytics practice, joins Phillip and Alicia to forecast this year’s holiday spending. Brian explains why behavior outweighs sentiment, how AI shopping agents are changing the way people find products, and why physical stores still bring in most of the new holiday dollars.

• Deloitte projects 4% to 4.8% holiday growth, driven mostly by price rather than volume.
• Behavior beats sentiment: anxious shoppers still spend, just more strategically.
• Value-seeking is a lasting change: shoppers now weigh durability, quality and private label.
• To show up in AI shopping agents’ picks, brands need detailed, well-structured product data.
• Digital sales are growing, but in-store sales still bring in most new holiday dollars. 
• “Behavior holds stronger than sentiment when it comes to holiday.” — Brian McCarthy
• “We’re seeing that sentiment shift not towards spending less, but towards spending more strategically, more thoughtfully, more intelligently.” — Brian McCarthy
• “We hear ‘value’ and we immediately think cost savings. But… that’s not always the case.” — Alicia Esposito
• “From tradition, nostalgia – holiday spending is still dominantly in store.” — Brian McCarthy

• Just released: Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey
• Check out Deloitte’s first Halloween study
• Review Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey

• The 2025 Holiday Reality Check (Ep. 429, with Deloitte)
• The BFCM Sprint: Last-Minute Tips and Tactics from Deloitte
• Separating Real Signals from the Noise (Ep. 480)
• BFCM 2025: We Give Thanks for Couch Commerce
• Agentic Commerce and the eCommerce Site’s New Existential Crisis
• The Concierge Economy: Understanding AI's True Role in the Shopping Experience
• The Alpha Effect: How Gen Alpha is Redefining Back-to-School Spending
• Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Aubrey Horowitz, Merchant of Decorative Holiday at The Home Depot, is on the show to talk about the viral skeleton that set the Halloween decor bar 12 feet high. Aubrey shares a behind-the-curtain look at how Home Depot designs its seasonal assortment for America’s front lawns, shaped by a vocal community of haunters who shop earlier and earlier each year. 

Plus, we walk through Skelly’s ground-up development with suppliers, the future of app-controlled animatronics, the moving target of nostalgia (the ’90s are vintage now, but won’t be for long), and why the best feedback loop in retail is a customer base that never stops posting.

• Halloween enthusiasts finish planning by August, pulling seasonal demand into summer.
• Haunting is a mindset more shoppers are embracing. Home Depot is meeting growing demand by building collections year over year based on public feedback.
• Nostalgia never goes out of style, but which era defines the trend keeps shifting. Skelly brought haunted-house-scale giants to retail and turned yard decor into a creative medium.
• “You can all shop at the same retailer, and then come out with a completely unique and  completely different haunted yard scene.” — Aubrey Horowitz
• “How do I deliver a product that you may not know that you want yet, while also delivering the thing that you’re asking for?” — Aubrey Horowitz
• “In many ways the front yard is like the homepage of people’s lives.” — Brian Lange
• “We just had no idea that [Skelly] would take off and that people would wanna dress him up for all the holidays and leave him up year round.” — Aubrey Horowitz

• Skelly, The Home Depot’s 12-foot skeleton

• Insiders 210: Spooky Commerce: What Halloween Shopping Trends Tell Us About Modern Culture
• Consumers are Overindulging on Halloween. Disney is Meeting the Moment.
• The Senses: Aug-tober is Here
• Insiders 239: The “Quiet Season” Fallacy: Why Waiting for Black Friday is Destroying Your Retail Business
• Field Notes: Holiday Edition: Spirit Christmas
• Insiders 040: Nostalgia as a Security Blanket
• Episode 426: The 13th Month of Revenue
• Episode 312: Barbenheimer: Nostalgia, Retail, Recall, and Relevance
• Join us at VISIONS Summit, November 3 at MoMA
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce+ for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!
 

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Phillip and Brian sit down with Carlos Gutierrez, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce and former chairman and CEO of Kellogg, ahead of the release of his memoir, Sheer Will. Carlos explains how the Commerce Department became one of the most powerful seats in Washington, why America should out-innovate China in the AI race, and why he thinks Americans are reluctant capitalists.

• With USTR now reporting to Commerce, the department holds more economic power than ever.
• Judging Mexico by the trade deficit misreads its value as a production partner.
• To win the AI race, America should out-innovate China rather than rely on sanctions.
• AI can't motivate people. Judgment and intuition will matter more for leaders.
• Global brands stay competitive when local teams share ownership of the P&L.
• "The Commerce secretary will be as powerful as the president wants him or her to be." — Carlos Gutierrez
• "I think that our [AI] strategy needs to be to out-innovate China." — Carlos Gutierrez
• "We are reluctant capitalists. We're reluctant to go too far. We're reluctant to embrace these trillion-dollar companies." — Carlos Gutierrez
• "I wanted 40, 50 people to go to sleep worrying about the P&L, not just me." — Carlos Gutierrez

• Sheer Will: Learning to Lead When There Is No Path by Carlos Gutierrez (St. Martin's Press), available October 6

• Member Brief: The First 100 Days: Reshaping a Modern Commerce Department on the World Stage
• Member Brief: Consolation Prize
• Member Brief: The Power of the Modern Commerce Department: Every Fable Has a Moral
• The Senses: The Commerce Department Is a Hedge Fund Now
• Policy Brief: The Halo Effect of the New Economy
• Tabula Rasa: Commerce in the Great Geopolitical Game
• The Senses: 100 Days Later and We're Still Tariff-ied
• Member Brief: Costco and the New American Imperialism
• Episode 414: Kunle Campbell – Is Commerce in Conflict with Idealism?
• Episode 309: AI Should Empower Your Workforce, Not Replace Them
• Check out Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

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Taste can’t be manufactured, so brands are hiring the people who have it. Writer and gr8 collab founder Emma Apple Chozick returns to talk with Phillip about her creative process (sans content calendar), building ShopMy’s Signals Substack on proprietary data, and what the long-gone BEST Products showrooms can teach us about designing retail spaces worth remembering.

• Brands can’t manufacture taste; they’ve learned to partner with people whose judgment audiences already trust.
• Real editorial starts with an insight, question, or tension. Consumers today can sniff out a product pitch from a mile away — if a brand’s editorial isn’t valuable as standalone content, it’s not worth sharing. 
• BEST Products’ SITE showrooms prove the best retail trades measurability for memory.
• Emma Apple Chozick: “Taste is obviously completely subjective. But when a brand resonates with a particular person’s taste, that’s not replicable. A brand can’t create that on their own. They can try, but it’s never gonna feel authentic.”
• Emma Apple Chozick: “I don’t know if the goal is actually ‘to grow.’ I think the goal is to work on really compelling projects that are aligned with what I’m interested in and can reach new people. But the goal isn’t always reach.”
• Phillip: “I don’t know that any of those [hot new channels] actually reflect culture. I think we bend culture to those things because that’s where we put capital, and an industry likes to talk about them because they’re new. But the people actually define what the culture is around the brand.”

• Watch Emma’s BEST Products video
• Find Emma Apple Chozick on LinkedIn and Instagram
• Learn more about gr8 collab
• Explore the archive of SITE New York
• Read Signals: A Publication by ShopMy
• Watch Surroundings on YouTube
• Read Emma’s Dwell essay, “The Midcentury House That Raised Me”
• Listen to Emma’s first Future Commerce episode, Creating Credible Content and Community-Building Collabs

• Read: Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design
• Read: Insiders #188: Architecting Desire: How Retail-Hospitality Hybrids are Changing Consumption
• Read: Substack and Retail’s New Media Era
• Read The Senses: “That’s a Great Collab”
• Listen: Where Culture Happens, Commerce Follows
• VISIONS Summit at MoMA, New York City: Join us on November 3, 2026
• Watch: Future Commerce on YouTube
• Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print
• Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world
• Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!
 

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.