This week we discuss the looming growth scare, the dollar wrecking ball driving a global margin call, and global yields nearing an inflection point. We also delve into the housing affordability crisis, the public spending problem, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vUv3VzZIBynaGgOynsWw6iCbWicPhH8x/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:55) December Jobs Report

(06:16) Other Labor Market Data

(07:50) Is The Cutting Cycle Over?

(11:24) DAS 2025

(14:34) Economic Slowdown In 2025?

(20:57) Global Margin Call

(27:10) Dollar Dilemma

(29:58) Global Bond Yields

(33:20) Yield Curve Dynamics

(35:22) Trifecta Of Tightening

(37:25) Crypto Politics

(39:16) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold

(40:05) Ads

(42:03) 2Y-10Y Curve & Yield Threshold (Con't)

(45:24) Trump Administration & Uncertainty Hysteria

(49:12) NFP Prediction

(49:52) TLT & Positioning

(52:13) Housing Affordability Crisis

(57:05) Yield Solutions

(59:59) 2-Year Trade

(01:01:12) Bitcoin & The Inauguration

(01:04:22) Public Spending Problem

(01:11:15) Decentralization Of Everything

(01:12:35) Killing The Four Year Cycle Narrative

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.