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How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf
Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944
Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown
Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel
Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?
(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"
(20:52) VanEck Ad
(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")
(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic
(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?
(45:43) Permissionless Ad
(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?
(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?
(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"
(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too
(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
View all episodes
By Blockworks
4.6
241241 ratings
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf
Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944
Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown
Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel
Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?
(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"
(20:52) VanEck Ad
(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")
(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic
(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?
(45:43) Permissionless Ad
(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?
(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?
(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"
(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too
(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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